ISP: OPA, +44% and a new attack on the highs?Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.MIL_LS:ISPActivTradesIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Intesa Sanpaolo faces a decisive week. The €30.6 billion offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena could accelerate Italian banking consolidation, while ISP enters the event after rising more than 44% since March. The price has been moving sideways since the August highs, while indicators are beginning to show a loss of momentum. An OPA that could change the Italian banking landscape Intesa Sanpaolo is once again at the center of European banking consolidation with its offer of around €30.6 billion for Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS). The transaction aims to create a group with more than 27 million customers and close to €2 trillion in customer financial assets by 2029. Intesa expects to obtain around €2.9 billion in additional financial benefits, combining cost savings and higher revenues. The bank expects to achieve approximately 60% of these synergies in 2028 and complete its target in 2029. Intesa shareholders will vote on the transaction on September 10. The proposal comes at a time of strong reorganization in the Italian financial system. MPS has proposed defensive transactions involving Banco BPM and Banca Generali to preserve its independence, increasing the strategic importance of Intesa's offer. For Intesa, the acquisition could strengthen its position in the domestic market and generate new economies of scale. However, the market will also have to assess the risks associated with integration, capital consumption and the ability to translate the expected synergies into higher earnings and profitability. ISP: sideways movement after a rally of more than 44% The share price of Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) maintains a bullish medium-term structure. From the lows of March 26, at €4.81, the stock advanced to reach €6.933 in mid-August, accumulating an approximate 44% gain. Since those highs, the price has entered a phase of sideways movement, currently trading around €6.68. Rather than a significant correction, the behavior reflects a pause following the strong move accumulated since March, with the price moving within a relatively narrow range. Technical indicators show precisely this loss of momentum. The RSI has declined from its highs toward the middle range, while the MACD is close to entering negative territory. The histogram has remained red since August 18, signaling a progressive reduction in buying momentum. This situation does not necessarily imply a change in trend. The price continues to move sideways while the indicators unwind part of the excess accumulated during the latest bullish leg. The key will be to determine in which direction this range is eventually resolved. The first reference on the downside is located in the €6.60-€6.65 area. As long as ISP remains above this level, the sideways movement can continue to be interpreted as a pause within the main bullish trend. In the event of a clear break below €6.60, the risk of a deeper correction would increase. In that scenario, the price-volume profile shows a second Point of Control (POC) area around €5.76, which would act as a relevant reference. On the upside, the €6.90-€6.93 area represents the immediate resistance and coincides with the August highs. A clear breakout above this level could restart the bullish momentum and open the door to new highs. The OPA meets a market waiting for confirmation The fundamental and technical contexts are now converging. The MPS transaction represents a relevant catalyst for Intesa precisely as the stock enters a sideways phase after a rally of more than 44%. The September 10 shareholder vote could become the next factor capable of increasing volatility. A positive reception of the transaction could provide the momentum needed to retest the August highs. Conversely, any doubts about execution, synergies or capital consumption could keep the price within the current range or increase selling pressure. For now, the medium-term outlook remains favorable. The bullish structure remains intact, but momentum has weakened and the price needs to regain strength to challenge €6.93 again. The equation is straightforward: €6.60 on the downside and €6.93 on the upside. A breakout of either extreme will likely determine ISP's next significant move. After moving from €4.81 to €6.933 in less than five months, Intesa Sanpaolo is now entering a waiting phase. The OPA could provide the catalyst, but it will be the price that determines whether this sideways movement ultimately resolves into another bullish breakout or a deeper correction. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. 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