JONATHAN SWAN, ADAM ENTOUS, MAGGIE HABERMAN2026年9月11日Vice President JD Vance took the unusual step over the spring and summer of calling U.S. military commanders in the Middle East, Europe and Asia directly, seeking their unvarnished assessments of the Iran war, according to current and former officials.据现任及前任官员透露，副总统JD·万斯在今年春季和夏季采取罕见举措，直接打电话给中东、欧洲和亚洲的美军指挥官，听取他们对伊朗战争的坦率评估。Mr. Vance, who opposed the war from the outset and was charged by President Trump with helping to end the conflict, wanted the commanders’ individual judgments, in their own words, before they were consolidated into a Pentagon view.万斯从一开始就反对这场战争，并获特朗普总统授权协助结束冲突，他希望在相关评估被汇总为五角大楼的统一观点前听取指挥官们用各自原话给出的个人判断。The conversations delved into an array of issues related to the war, including its objectives, tactics, casualty estimates, what the Iranians would do in the Strait of Hormuz, how adaptable they had become and how much punishment their government could absorb. Mr. Vance also asked for a detailed accounting of what remained in the commanders’ stockpiles, and how the transfer of weapons to the Middle East would affect their ability to deter China, Russia and North Korea.这些对话深入探讨了与战争相关的诸多问题，包括作战目标、战术、伤亡预测、伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的应对举措、其适应能力以及伊朗政府能承受何种程度的打击。万斯还要求详细盘点指挥官们的物资库存，并评估向中东调运武器将如何影响美军威慑中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜的能力。On that last point, the commanders were blunt. They were most worried about their depleted stocks of Patriot interceptors, the backbone of their air defenses. By late spring, one theater was down to fewer than 100 of them. The war had also exhausted the theater’s supplies of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, which can reach 190 miles, along with stores of the Precision Strike Missiles, which were meant to replace them. Stocks of critical munitions such as these, they told the vice president, were the lowest they had ever seen.在这最后一点上，指挥官们的表态直截了当。他们最担心的就是防空中坚爱国者拦截弹的库存消耗。截至春末，某战区该型弹药仅剩不到100枚。战争还耗尽了该战区射程达300公里的陆军战术导弹系统(Army Tactical Missile Systems)储备，以及本用于替代该系统的精确打击导弹(Precision Strike Missiles)库存。他们告诉副总统，此类关键弹药的库存已降至他们见过的最低水平。This account is based on interviews with more than a half-dozen current and former officials, who were granted anonymity to disclose sensitive information.本报道基于六名以上的现任及前任官员的采访，因涉敏感信息披露进行了匿名处理。Mr. Vance came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success, according to people who spoke to him. The assessments made clear the extraordinary amount of pain the Iranian government was prepared to endure in its fight for survival, and the limited supply of U.S. defensive weapons available to block Iran’s retaliatory strikes, or to deal with threats elsewhere.据与万斯交流过的人士透露，其中一些通话结束后，他对整体战略和获胜机会深感焦虑。这些评估清晰揭示出，伊朗政府为求生存甘愿承受巨大的痛苦，而美军用来拦截伊朗报复性打击或应对其他地区威胁的防御性武器储备却非常有限。The vice president incorporated these lessons into his private talks with Mr. Trump and their inner circle. At the same time, the president was hearing more in his briefings from Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the strain on U.S. stockpiles and the resilience of Iranian forces, which Mr. Trump initially found difficult to believe.副总统将这些了解到的情况纳入了他与特朗普及其核心圈子的私下交流中。与此同时，总统在听取参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军的简报时，也越来越多地听到有关美军库存紧张和伊朗军队韧性的汇报，特朗普最初觉得这些情况难以置信。万斯在纽约出席7月4日活动期间登上“基萨奇山”号。The officials’ accounts, taken together, show how Mr. Vance has sought to surface a greater level of detail and nuance about the war. They also help to flesh out hotly debated questions about what kinds of information about the war Mr. Trump is receiving, and from whom. And for Mr. Vance, who had only limited national security experience before he became vice president, they show how he is now immersed in a costly and inconclusive war that could shadow him in a potential 2028 presidential campaign.综合这些官员的陈述可以看出，万斯正试图揭示战争中更多细节与微妙之处。这也有助于进一步厘清一个引起了激烈辩论的问题：关于这场战争，特朗普得到了怎样的信息，以及这些信息是谁提供的。而对就任副总统之前没有多少国家安全经验的万斯而言，这些情况表明他如今正深陷一场代价高昂且未有定论的战争，这可能会对他潜在的2028年总统竞选产生负面影响。There was a gulf between the sobering private assessments that Mr. Vance received and what top administration officials, including the president and vice president, have said publicly. Mr. Trump has continued to falsely claim that the United States has already won the war, that the Iranian military has been demolished and that there are no problems with U.S. weapons supplies. And Mr. Vance recently downplayed the idea that the United States was even engaged in a war.万斯获取的这些令人警醒的私下评估与政府高层（包括总统和副总统本人）的公开表态之间存在着巨大鸿沟。特朗普仍在不断给出不实的声明，称美国已赢得这场战争，伊朗军队已被摧毁，且美军武器供应没有任何问题。万斯近期也轻描淡写地表示美国甚至没有在进行一场战争。Privately, the president has raged about media stories detailing the diminished stockpiles, calling journalists “treasonous” for reporting on the topic. In the wake of the coverage, government investigators subjected dozens of senior military officers at the Pentagon to polygraph tests. Other officials have worried about signaling weakness to China and Russia, who are closely surveilling U.S. stockpiles.私底下，总统对媒体详细披露武器库存减少的报道大发雷霆，指责报道该话题的记者“叛国”。这些报道出现后，政府调查人员对五角大楼的数十名高级军官进行了测谎。另有官员担心，这会让密切监视美军库存的中国和俄罗斯看到弱点。Mr. Vance’s calls to the commanders were made with the knowledge of the president; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; General Caine; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as the national security adviser; and Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, according to officials with direct knowledge.据直接知情的官员透露，万斯致电指挥官是在总统、国防部长皮特·海格塞斯、凯恩、兼任国家安全顾问的国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥以及白宫幕僚长苏茜·威尔斯知情的前提下进行的。Sean Parnell, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement that “to ensure the president’s team receives all available data points regarding ongoing operations in the Middle East, the secretary has facilitated direct access to combatant commanders for the vice president and other senior White House leaders.”五角大楼发言人肖恩·帕内尔在声明中表示：“为确保总统团队能够获取有关中东当前行动的所有可用数据，部长已协助副总统和其他白宫高级领导人直接联系各作战司令部指挥官。”Joseph Holstead, General Caine’s spokesman, said, “There is no gap in the military advice provided to the president, the vice president, and the secretary of war,” referring to the title Mr. Hegseth uses. Mr. Holstead added: “The chairman, joint staff, and combatant commanders are in direct and continuous communication, and their operational and strategic assessments inform the military options and advice provided to senior leaders.”凯恩的发言人约瑟夫·霍尔斯特德表示：“在向总统、副总统和战争部长提供的军事建议方面没有任何脱节。”霍尔斯特德补充说：“主席、联合参谋部和各作战司令部指挥官保持着直接而持续的沟通，他们的作战与战略评估为向高层领导人提供军事选项和建议提供了依据。”战争部长是海格塞斯自称的头衔。Steven Cheung, the White House communications director, said, “President Trump has built the most talented national security team in history. The entire team is laser focused on ensuring that the president has all the information he needs in order to deter America’s enemies. Everybody works in coordination with each other on that mission.”白宫通讯主任张振熙(Steven Cheung)表示：“特朗普总统组建了有史以来最优秀的国家安全团队。整个团队高度专注于确保总统拥有威慑美国敌人所需的所有信息。在此项使命上，大家彼此协调配合。”Mr. Vance, who enlisted in the Marine Corps during the Iraq war, has told colleagues that he considers himself one of the president’s principal advisers on national security.万斯在伊拉克战争期间曾服役于海军陆战队，他曾向同事表示，自己是总统在国家安全方面的核心顾问之一。Luke Schroeder, Mr. Vance’s press secretary, said, “The vice president is thankful for the partnership of Secretary Hegseth and Chairman Caine. He views them as indispensable colleagues in advising the president and executing his decisions.”万斯的新闻秘书卢克·施罗德表示：“副总统对海格塞斯部长和凯恩主席的合作表示感谢。他将他们视为在向总统提供建议和执行其决策过程中不可或缺的同事。”Blunt and Unfiltered Opinions直率且未经过滤的意见4月，万斯、贾里德·库什纳（左）和史蒂夫·威特科夫在伊斯兰堡参加和谈。Before the start of the war on Feb. 28, Mr. Hegseth and General Caine had restricted planning to an unusually small circle of officers at the Pentagon and in Central Command for operational security reasons, and to prevent potential leaks. Key officials, such as the Treasury and energy secretaries, were excluded from the prewar planning meetings.在2月28日战争爆发前，出于作战安全和防止潜在泄密的考虑，海格塞斯与凯恩将规划限制在五角大楼和中央司令部内极少数人的范围。财政部长和能源部长等关键官员均被排除在战前规划会议之外。That secrecy left commanders around the world largely in the dark until roughly a week before the bombs fell, when secret messages arrived from the Pentagon ordering them to transfer specified munitions, in specified quantities, to Central Command, which directs Middle East operations. No explanation was given, and none was needed.这种保密做法让世界各地的指挥官在很大程度上毫不知情，直到炸弹落下前约一周，五角大楼发来秘密电报，命令他们将特定数量的指定弹药调配至负责中东行动的中央司令部。这些举措未给出解释，也不需要解释。Mr. Vance’s effort to collect more information on the war began early.万斯收集更多战争信息的努力很早就已开始。Within days of the start of the war, Mr. Vance told colleagues that he wanted more granular briefings to inform his views and to better advise Mr. Trump. General Caine, for his part, saw his job as providing the president with unbiased military options rather than advocacy. He would interpret Mr. Trump’s intentions and lay out ways for him to achieve them. For each option, he would highlight the secondary considerations, the risks and the potential implications.在战争爆发后的几天内，万斯就向同事表示，他希望获得更详尽的简报，以形成自己的看法，并更好地向特朗普提供建议。就凯恩而言，他认为自己的职责是向总统提供无偏见的军事选项，而非表达倾向。他会解读特朗普的意图，并梳理出实现这些意图的途径。对于每个选项，他都会强调次要考量因素、风险以及潜在影响。But he would not tell the president which option to choose, according to officials with direct knowledge of his presentations. The vice president sought out uniformed military officers who would offer blunt and unfiltered opinions and recommendations, and he would incorporate what he heard into his own counsel to the president.但据直接了解其汇报内容的官员透露，他不会告诉总统应该选择哪个方案。副总统则主动联系那些能够提供直率且未经过滤的意见和建议的现役军官，并将听到的内容融入自己给总统的谏言中。Mr. Vance’s opposition to the war was no secret inside the White House. In the weeks leading up to Feb. 28, he argued against the operation in meetings in the Oval Office and Situation Room, at times to Mr. Trump’s considerable irritation, according to officials who discussed the matter with the president. But once Mr. Trump made up his mind, Mr. Vance defended the decision in public, including during tense television interviews.万斯对战争的反对在白宫内部并非秘密。据与总统讨论过此事的官员透露，在2月28日之前的几周里，他在椭圆形办公室和战情室的会议上公开反对该行动，有时这让特朗普相当恼火。然而一旦特朗普做出决定，万斯就在公开场合为该决定辩护，包括在气氛紧张的电视采访中。The vice president also became the public face of the peace effort, running a series of talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding in June. Its 60-day window closed in August with no agreement and with the two sides seemingly further apart than when the negotiations started.副总统还成为了和平斡旋的代言人，主持了一系列谈判，并在6月达成了一项谅解备忘录。该备忘录在60天窗口期于8月结束时未促成任何协议，双方的分歧似乎比谈判开始时更大。Mr. Trump had not seriously contemplated the war lasting long enough to strain U.S. stockpiles. He was fresh off the success of the quick military strike to capture Venezuela’s leader, and was impressed by how the United States and Israel had combined to attack Iranian nuclear sites over 12 days the previous year. Before launching the war in Iran, he had privately expected the government there to collapse within days.特朗普此前并未认真思考过战争会持续到使美军库存面临压力的情况。他刚经历了快速突袭抓获委内瑞拉领导人的成功，也对前一年美以联合在12天内打击伊朗核设施的成果印象深刻。在对伊朗开战前，他私下里曾预计该国政府将在几天内崩溃。As Mr. Vance was making his calls, the fighting ran well past the roughly six-week window that Pentagon planners had initially budgeted for the campaign. Senior White House advisers beyond the vice president did not believe they had a clear-enough understanding of how much the strikes had changed the calculus of the government in Tehran.五角大楼规划者最初预设战斗会持续六周，在万斯致电指挥官时早已超过这个时限。除副总统外的白宫高级顾问们认为，他们对于打击在多大程度上改变了德黑兰政府的考量缺乏足够清晰的了解。As the war dragged on, commanders were ordered to transfer more of their munitions. They watched with alarm as their stockpiles dwindled.随着战争拖延，指挥官们接到命令调运更多弹药。看着自己的库存不断缩减，他们感到担忧。By April, Mr. Trump could see the war was not going the way he had hoped. He authorized his team — including Mr. Vance, the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and the special envoy Steve Witkoff — to begin seeking a framework and negotiating a deal with Iran to end the conflict, an agreement that would leave the country’s authoritarians in control. The officials briefed on the calls with the commanders could not say what role, if any, the vice president’s findings played in the president’s shift toward diplomacy.到了4月，特朗普已经看出战争并未朝着他所希望的方向发展。他授权自己的团队——包括万斯、总统女婿贾里德·库什纳以及特使史蒂夫·威特科夫——开始寻求建立一个框架，并与伊朗协商停火，而该协议将允许该国的威权统治者继续掌权。至于副总统的调研发现在总统转向外交的过程中发挥了何种作用，或是否发挥了作用，了解通话内容的官员无法给出回答。Mr. Vance has developed a reputation inside the Trump administration for steeping himself in operational detail, a habit that some officials admire and others regard as too much in the weeds. Where Mr. Trump works in a way that leaves even his aides guessing how he arrives at decisions, Mr. Vance obsessively tracks the daily minutiae, including military operations, the internal dynamics of the Iranian political system and the sourcing of intelligence assessments.万斯在特朗普政府内部树立了喜欢深究具体执行细节的声誉，这种习惯让部分官员颇为赞赏，但也被一些人认为过多关注旁枝末节。相比之下，特朗普的工作方式甚至让他的助手都无法猜透他是如何做出决定的，而万斯则执着于跟进日常的琐碎事务，包括军事行动、伊朗政治体制的内部动态以及情报评估的来源。本月早些时候，萨缪尔·帕帕罗将军在加拿大参加一场防务官员会议。John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, has given him direct access to agency analysts; Mr. Vance knows some of them by first name and calls their desks to ask about raw intelligence or items in his morning briefing, intelligence officials said.情报官员表示，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫给予了他直接联系该局分析师的权限；万斯能叫出其中一些人的名字，并会直接打电话到他们的办公桌询问原始情报或早间简报中的内容。But such access is the exception. For most senior officials, information about the war remains hard to come by.但这种权限只是例外。对于大多数高级官员而言，关于这场战争的信息依然难以获取。Adam Goldman对本文有报道贡献。Jonathan Swan是时报白宫记者，报道特朗普政府新闻。可以通过Signal安全地联系他： @jonathan.941Adam Entous是《纽约时报》驻华盛顿调查记者，主要关注国家安全和情报事务。Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。