BMW - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MONTHLY TF EWP FIB TCBayerische Motoren Werke AGXETR_DLY:BMWAnakynBMW – Long-Term Monthly Structure Approaching a Critical Decision Zone BMW’s monthly chart shows a remarkably well-defined long-term ascending structure extending back to the late 1980s. Despite several major corrections over nearly four decades, price has repeatedly respected the broader rising channel and its internal parallel trend lines. The most important feature of the current setup is the convergence of long-term support around the €56–57 area. BMW is currently trading at €63.74 on the chart. Below the present price, the larger Fibonacci structure places the 0.382 retracement at €56.64, almost exactly at the major horizontal level marked at €56.40. That creates a very clear technical confluence rather than an arbitrary support assumption. This makes the area around €56.40–€56.64 the key level I am watching. If that zone holds, the long-term bullish channel remains structurally intact and BMW would have the possibility of beginning another advance within the broader secular trend. The major resistance above remains the €123.75 zone marked by the previous long-term top. A break above that level would be technically significant because it would represent a breakout from the major resistance that has capped BMW for more than a decade. The larger Fibonacci projection shown on the chart then places the next major extension around €200.50. The downside is equally important. If BMW loses the €56 area decisively on a monthly basis, the next major Fibonacci levels on the chart are approximately €44.60 at the HWB, followed by €34.95 at the GZ. The separate horizontal support marked at €36.60 creates another important support cluster within that region. That means the chart essentially presents two major long-term decision areas: €56.50 is the first and currently most important support zone. If that fails, the broader €35 region becomes the next major technical area. The monthly RSI is currently in the lower half of its range, reflecting the weakness of the latest decline, but it is not yet deeply oversold. In other words, RSI by itself does not provide evidence that the correction has necessarily finished. Price behaviour at the support levels therefore matters more than trying to call an exact bottom from momentum alone. What makes this setup particularly interesting is the scale of the chart. This is not a short-term trade based on a few candles. It is a test of a price structure that has developed over several decades. As long as the secular ascending channel survives, the long-term bullish structure remains valid. For me, therefore, the decisive question is not whether BMW looks “cheap” at €60 or whether the next candle is green or red. The question is: Does BMW defend €56.40–€56.64 and remain inside its almost four-decade-long ascending structure? If the answer is yes, the risk/reward profile begins to become increasingly interesting. If the answer is no, the chart already tells us where the next major battlefield is likely to be: roughly €33–€37. Not financial advice. Like and follow for more Elliott Wave and macro technical analysis.