AAPL (D) — the event corrects without breaking the trendApple Inc.BATS:AAPLEdoLab-MarketsAAPL Apple trades at $315.34 after the fall event session, a wide range candle (open at $315.485, high at $319.15, low at $309.90) that gives back 0.28% on 65.6 million shares, some 26% above the average of the last hundred sessions. What matters is not the decline, which is minimal, but where price travelled during the day. The low pierced the daily EMA 50 ($312.65) and the close reclaimed it, so the average that has carried the entire leg since April is still intact after the news. The rest of the chart makes more sense once you look at where the stock comes from. The stock rose 104.7% from the April low at $168.18 to the all time high at $344.27 printed in the last week of July, and from that ceiling it works 8.4% lower without having broken anything. The daily structure keeps its bullish bias with its last break to the upside alive and five active demand zones below, the strongest one at $288.12. The moving average stack explains the situation well, because price has lost the EMA 5 ($318.57), the EMA 9 ($318.45) and the EMA 20 ($316.67) while it still sits above the EMA 50 ($312.65), the EMA 100 ($303.12) and the EMA 200 ($286.71). Short term momentum has already turned, with the TRIX crossed down and expanding, and with the stochastics unwinding from the top. The Stoch 89 (63) and the Stoch 50 (59) still work high, but the Stoch 14 (43) crossed down on the 8th and the Stoch 5 (25) is already at the bottom. The RSI 14 (49.40) has lost the midpoint and the RSI 2 (12.84) sits in deep oversold. The MACD is the only one holding the bias, with its main line (1.84) still above its signal (1.43) and a narrowing histogram at 0.4159. Flow has gone flat, with the fast line (92.28) practically glued to the slow one (92.32). Monthly Analysis. The larger timeframe has not even noticed the pullback and that is the strongest argument on the chart. Price trades above the entire stack, with the EMA 5 ($304.91) and the EMA 9 ($292.50) below as the first cushion and the EMA 20 ($267.23) still far away. The monthly MACD works upward with its main line (28.06) over its signal (23.79) and a histogram at 4.27, while the TRIX keeps a bullish bias although its strength is starting to fade. The stochastics are high and ordered upward, with the Stoch 89 (90), the Stoch 50 (86), the Stoch 14 (79) and the Stoch 5 (65) all pointing the same way, which belongs to a mature trend rather than to a turn. The RSI 14 (67.72) approaches saturation without stepping into it, and flow is the best number of them all, with the fast line (98.34) over the slow one (97.63) and the histogram in positive ground. The monthly structure keeps its last break to the upside with five demand zones alive below. July rose 5.27% leaving the all time high wick behind, August closed 2.44% higher and September runs flat with a 0.52% decline. Weekly Analysis. The intermediate timeframe is where the short term gets decided and where price is tightest. The current week opened at $317.10, has printed $320.70 and $309.90, and for now holds between the EMA 5 ($315.78) and the EMA 9 ($313.86), which have acted as a moving floor for seven weeks since the July reversal candle. That week opened at $334.25, printed the all time high at $344.27 and closed at $308.64 on the heaviest volume of the year, and since then the stock has moved inside a lateral range whose ceiling sits at $330.81. Below are the EMA 20 ($304.68), the EMA 50 ($282.24) and the EMA 200 ($223.22), which place the real cycle floor far lower. Momentum on this frame is the part that demands respect, because the MACD has its main line (12.16) below its signal (13.04) with a histogram at −0.8797, and the TRIX remains crossed down although its strength is fading. The stochastics, by contrast, all four point upward from high levels, with the Stoch 89 (85), the Stoch 50 (75), the Stoch 14 (63) and the Stoch 5 (53). The RSI 14 (57.82) is comfortable and the RSI 2 (38.34) has already unwound. Weekly flow backs the move, with the fast line (93.17) above the slow one (90.82) and a histogram at 2.35. The range reading closes the picture and explains the title, because on the daily frame price has returned to the cheap half, at 35% of the range between $299.74 and $344.27, while on the weekly one it still trades above the ceiling of the previous range. Apple arrives at this pullback with the strongest numbers of its recent history. In the quarter ended in June it billed $109.4 billion, 16% more than a year earlier, with the iPhone at $54.25 billion and growth of 22%, and earnings per share of $2.02 that climb 29%. The company changed chief executive on September 1, when John Ternus took over from Tim Cook, and this week's event was his first product launch. It brought the iPhone 18 Pro, the 18 Pro Max and the first foldable of the house, the iPhone Duo, which reaches stores on October 23 for $1,999. That is the catalyst and also the risk, because the supply chain has run into yield problems with the hinges and the screens of the foldable, and the units available at the start will be limited. An upgrade cycle carried by a new high priced product is exactly what the market wants to see, but the cash register will not confirm it until the fiscal year end report. Key levels: - Resistance 1: $318.45 and $318.57 (daily EMAs 9 and 5) - Resistance 2: $322.01 (daily range equilibrium) - Resistance 3: $330.81 (September range ceiling) - All time high: $344.27 (last week of July) - Dynamic support: $315.78 and $313.86 (weekly EMAs 5 and 9) - Support 1: $312.65 (daily EMA 50) - Support 2: $309.90 (monthly low) - Structural support: $304.68-$299.74 (weekly EMA 20 and range base) Setup Rating — 4/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭒ (Intact monthly trend, buying flow across the three frames and price back in the cheap half of the daily range, against short term momentum already turned and a weekly frame that has not corrected its bearish cross yet) ✅ Positive factors: - The session low pierced the daily EMA 50 ($312.65) and the close reclaimed it - Bullish structure with its last break alive on the daily, the weekly and the monthly at once - Monthly MACD rising with its main line (28.06) above its signal (23.79) - A/D buying across the three frames, with the monthly at 98.34 over 97.63 - Price back at 35% of the daily range between $299.74 and $344.27, in discount territory - Daily RSI 2 at 12.84 and Stoch 5 at 25, with the short term unwind already done ⚠️ Cautions: - Daily TRIX crossed down and with expanding strength - Weekly MACD below its signal, with the histogram at −0.8797 - Price under the daily EMAs 5, 9 and 20, which now act as resistance - Limited initial supply of the foldable due to manufacturing yield problems 👍 As long as closes respect the $313.86 to $312.65 area, where the weekly EMA 9 and the daily EMA 50 meet, the pullback stays a pause inside the bullish leg. The first job on the upside is reclaiming the fast daily averages at $318.45 and $318.57, then the range equilibrium at $322.01 and finally the lateral ceiling at $330.81. Taking several weeks to resolve the band between $309.90 and $330.81 would not be bad news at all, because the weekly MACD needs time to rebuild its cross and here it would get it without putting any support at risk. Confirmation that the range resolves upward would be a weekly close above $344.27. 👎 Losing $312.65 on a close would leave price without immediate dynamic support and put the focus on $309.90, whose break would open the path toward the weekly EMA 20 ($304.68) and then toward the range base at $299.74. That leg would still be a healthy correction, because it matches the cheap half of the move and the area where price leaned in August. Only below there would the $288.12 demand zone and the daily EMA 200 ($286.71) come into play, which is where the underlying thesis would have to be reviewed and not before. Do you see the foldable cycle already priced in, or is there still room ahead? 👇