艾莎2026年9月9日周一，南京一处港口整齐堆放的集装箱。全球对中国商品的需求部分源自各国急需大举建设人工智能能力。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhen President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, meet this month to talk about a fragile trade truce, one issue is sure to dominate: China’s seemingly unstoppable export engine.特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平将于本月会晤，讨论脆弱的贸易休战问题。届时，中国看似不可阻挡的出口引擎势必将成为主要议题。Chinese customs data released on Tuesday showed that in August, China sold $119.09 billion more in goods to the world than it bought — the fourth month in a row that the trade surplus topped $100 billion. Exports rose by 25 percent in U.S. dollar terms, while imports climbed 28 percent.周二公布的中国海关数据显示，8月份中国对全球的商品出口额比进口额高出1190.9亿美元——这是贸易顺差连续第四个月突破1000亿美元大关。以美元计价出口同比增长25%，进口攀升28%。So far this year, the trade gap is already over $800 billion, and economists say it is on track to surpass last year’s $1.2 trillion, a milestone no other country has reached.今年以来，中国的贸易顺差已超过8000亿美元。经济学家指出，该数据正逼近甚至有望超越去年1.2万亿美元的规模，而那已经是此前未有任何其他国家达到过的里程碑。In the early months of his second term, Mr. Trump made confronting China on trade a centerpiece of his agenda, unleashing hefty tariffs on the country to try to force a sweeping economic deal. But after Beijing retaliated by choking off rare earths exports, the Trump administration was forced to back down and accept a modest truce.在第二任期的最初几个月里，特朗普将在贸易问题上对抗中国作为其议程的核心，对中国加征高额关税，试图迫使中方达成一项广泛的经济协议。但在北京通过切断稀土出口进行报复后，特朗普政府被迫让步，接受了适度的休战。While China’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed earlier, it has begun expanding again, testing the limits of the détente. The trade disparity with the United States in August grew even wider, swelling by 44 percent to more than $29 billion, the widest gap since Mr. Trump returned to office in January, 2025.中国对美贸易顺差此前曾有所缩小，但如今再度扩大，正挑战着这种缓和状态的极限。8月份，中美贸易顺差进一步扩大，激增44%，至290多亿美元，创下自特朗普2025年1月重返白宫以来的最高纪录。China’s domestic economic troubles have helped set it on a collision course with some of the world’s biggest economies. Facing cutthroat competition and frugal consumers at home, where the economy is growing at its slowest rate in three years, China’s factories have sought markets overseas, where their cheap goods are welcomed. Chinese exports this year have grown everywhere. They have ballooned by nearly 26 percent with Southeast Asia and more than 25 percent with Africa. Its exports to Canada are up by more than 10 percent.中国国内的经济困境使其与世界上几个最大经济体走向冲突。在国内，经济正以三年来最慢的速度增长，面对残酷的竞争和节俭的消费者，中国工厂纷纷转向欢迎其廉价商品的海外市场。今年，中国对全球各地的出口均呈增长态势：对东南亚的出口激增近26%，对非洲出口增幅超过25%，对加拿大的出口也增长了10%以上。Some of the demand for Chinese goods has been driven by a voracious appetite around the world to build out artificial intelligence capabilities.全球为建设人工智能能力而产生的巨大需求部分推动了对中国商品的消费。去年，中国宿迁一家半导体制造厂。8月份，中国半导体出口大幅增长。Exports of Chinese semiconductors and automatic data processing machines grew by nearly 130 percent and 77 percent in August compared with the same period last year. Demand for China’s electric vehicles also remains strong, as the war in Iran has dragged on for six months, disrupting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil and gas prices higher.与去年同期相比，8月份中国半导体和自动数据处理设备的出口分别增长了近130%和77%。与此同时，由于在伊朗的战争已持续六个月，扰乱了途经霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输并推高了油气价格，对中国电动汽车的需求依然强劲。China’s yawning trade gap with the world has frustrated officials in many of the biggest economies, who are worried about the growing dominance of Chinese companies across a range of industries, as well as the flood of goods into their countries. Many officials argue that China’s manufacturing dominance is the result of heavy government subsidies that favor Chinese companies.中国对世界其他地区巨大的贸易顺差令许多最大经济体的官员不满，他们不仅担心中国企业在多个行业日益增强的主导地位，也对大量涌入其国内的商品感到不安。许多官员认为，中国在制造业的主导地位源于严重偏袒中国企业的政府补贴。The European Union’s trade commissioner recently gave Beijing an October deadline to provide “concrete results” of its efforts to rebalance a record trade deficit with Europe — with proposed measures like granting European companies more access to the Chinese market — or to risk “harsher measures.”欧盟贸易委员最近给北京设下了10月的最后期限，要求中方出示旨在重新平衡创纪录的中欧贸易逆差的“具体成果”——例如允许欧洲企业获得更多进入中国市场的机会等拟议措施——否则将面临“更严厉的措施”。The tensions spilled into the open last week at a gathering of economic officials from the Group of 20 nations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of blocking a joint statement by the group because it opposed language that criticized countries “with excessive and persistent external surpluses.”上周，这种紧张的气氛弥漫到了二十国集团经济官员会议。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特指责中国阻挠该集团发表联合声明，因为中方反对声明中批评一些国家“存在过度且持续的外部顺差”的措辞。左起：中国人民银行行长潘功胜，财政部副部长廖岷。两人上月出席在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔举行的二十国集团会议。美国财政部长在会上指责中国阻挠该集团发表联合声明。Beijing has denied that it is intentionally creating trade imbalances, arguing that its competitive edge is a result of innovation and efficient manufacturing. The government accused Mr. Bessent of using international forums like the G20 to “hype narratives” about trade imbalances and to “manufacture pretexts for pressuring and restricting China.”北京方面否认故意制造贸易失衡，强调其竞争优势是创新和高效制造的结果。中国政府指责贝森特利用二十国集团等国际论坛“炒作”贸易失衡的叙事，并“为施压和限制中国制造借口”。The trade tensions will be front and center during talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi, who is expected to visit Washington later this month.预计习近平将于本月晚些时候访问华盛顿。在特朗普与习近平的会谈中，贸易紧张局势将成为核心议题。The latest trade data will give Mr. Trump “fresh ammunition” going into the talks with Mr. Xi, said Han Lin, the China country director of The Asia Group, a consulting firm.咨询公司美商亚洲集团中国区总监林汉昇表示，最新的贸易数据将为即将与习近平会谈的特朗普提供“新弹药”。“But it also strengthens Xi’s hand. China’s exports remain resilient despite U.S. tariffs, underscoring Beijing’s leverage,” said Mr. Lin.“但这也增强了习近平的底气。尽管面临美国的关税，中国的出口依然保持韧性，这彰显了北京掌握的筹码，”林汉昇说道。The widening trade gap is also a symptom of lackluster demand at home. Consumer spending has been weak, while youth unemployment remains high. In August, China’s imports slowed, even as the country imported more high-tech goods like automatic data processing machines and semiconductors. Foreign car shipments have fallen around 20 percent so far this year as domestic brands dominate the market.不断扩大的贸易顺差同时也是国内需求疲软的表征。消费者支出持续疲软，青年失业率居高不下。8月份，尽管中国进口了更多自动数据处理设备和半导体等高科技商品，但整体进口增速仍有所放缓。由于本土品牌主导市场，今年迄今为止，外国汽车的进口量已下降约20%。China’s oil imports continued to fall in August and were down nearly 15 percent from the same period a year earlier. China is the world’s biggest buyer of oil, but has pared back its purchases since the war with Iran began.中国8月份的石油进口继续下降，同比降幅近15%。中国是全球最大的石油买家，但自美伊战争爆发以来已削减了购买量。Murphy Zhao对本文有报道贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。