XAUUSD — Weekly Outlook: H4 Bearish DistributionGoldOANDA:XAUUSDGold_Prime_Smc Market Context Gold is trading around $4,349 after another volatile week, with the H4 chart showing a completed Head & Shoulders distribution and a clear shift from bullish expansion into bearish delivery. Price remains below the broken structure, while repeated BOS signals continue to expose liquidity beneath the market. The macro backdrop also favors caution on Gold next week. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while stronger PPI and labor data have pushed market expectations for a 25 bp Fed hike at next week’s meeting to around 85%. Treasury yields remain elevated, while oil is still above $100 despite easing from recent highs. Ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions may create safe-haven spikes, but persistent inflation and tighter Fed expectations remain an important headwind for Gold. SMC View The H4 structure has shifted bearish after the Head & Shoulders distribution, followed by MSS and consecutive downside BOS. The right shoulder has already failed to reclaim the previous highs, confirming that recent rebounds remain corrective while price trades beneath the larger bearish structure. The immediate FVG around $4,360–$4,395 is the main decision zone. A corrective recovery into this imbalance could provide mitigation before sellers attempt another expansion lower. The neckline liquidity around $4,280–$4,310 is the first major downside draw, while deeper External SSL remains exposed below. Main Trading Scenario Condition: Gold retraces into the $4,360–$4,395 FVG area and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry. Entry: $4,360–$4,395 after bearish confirmation SL: Above $4,420 and the rejection structure TP1: $4,280–$4,310 TP2: $4,225–$4,255 TP3: $4,050–$4,090 Key Zones to Watch Current price: $4,349 Main sell zone: $4,360–$4,395 Premium Bearish OB: $4,683.210 Neckline liquidity: $4,280–$4,310 External SSL / Deep Demand: $4,225–$4,255 Major External SSL: $4,050–$4,090 Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,420 Confirmation: Bearish rejection + MSS / CHOCH Prime Gold View The weekly sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the nearby FVG and continues to respect bearish H4 structure. A confirmed rejection from $4,360–$4,395 could reopen delivery toward neckline liquidity first, followed by deeper External SSL. With the Fed decision approaching, confirmation matters more than chasing volatility. No confirmation, no trade.