Brent advances toward $100/bbl after Iran threat to Gulf energy infrastructure

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(Investing) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude extending gains above $98 a barrel during the session, as investors weighed risks of further disruption to Middle East energy supplies after Iran warned that oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could be targeted in retaliation for attacks on its assets.Brent Oil Futures expiring in November were up 1.7% at $98.64 a barrel by 07:51 ET (11:51 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2.7% to $93.92 per barrel.Brent settled nearly 1% higher on Monday after briefly touching $98 per barrel in the previous session.The latest gains came after Iran threatened to respond to U.S. “economic warfare” with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf. This follows a weekend of tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran, including attacks on shipping.Iranian officials have since warned that U.S. oil and gas interests and other energy infrastructure across the Gulf are vulnerable to retaliation.“The oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said.“Strike our assets, and you get struck. We’ve already proven it,” he added.The Strait of Hormuz remains the key focus for oil markets. Iran has said it will introduce a new restricted zone in the Gulf and an alternative shipping corridor, raising concerns that tighter maritime controls could further slow tanker traffic through the strategic waterway.Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on X that Washington had received a “clear warning” from Iran’s new missiles and that any economic warfare would be met by a maritime exclusion zone extending across the Gulf to the perimeter of the U.S. blockade.Goldman Sachs on Sunday raised its Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5, to $85 and $80 for December 2026 and $80 and $75 for 2027, saying it expects Middle East shipping disruptions to persist into 2027.Despite that assumption, the price upgrade remains modest for two reasons. First, OECD commercial land inventories — a key price driver — have barely drawn down since the war began, reflecting a smaller-than-expected supply deficit as markets adapt, with stock draws concentrated in OECD strategic reserves, oil on water, and Chinese inventories.Second, the analysts assume Middle East supply will continue to adapt, with production gradually recovering by the second half of 2027 as dark flows increase further and new pipelines come online late in the year.Meanwhile, Iran said a deal with Oman over arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz was close, potentially providing a mechanism to ease shipping disruptions. But markets remain skeptical that diplomacy will quickly end the wider U.S.-Iran confrontation.The conflict has already pushed Brent sharply higher. The benchmark gained 8% last week, while WTI rose nearly 10%.Vahid Karaahmetovic contributed to this report.