Gold sitting almost unchanged near $4,400 reflects a market unwilling to commit ahead of two closely watched inflation prints, rather than any strong directional conviction. The more interesting signal is the gap between a Reuters poll of economists, which points to the Fed holding rates steady through year end, and the CME FedWatch Tool, which still assigns a 60% probability to a hike this month, a divergence that leaves plenty of room for a sharp repricing once the data lands. Gold's safe haven bid has been a relatively muted part of this year's price action given how far the metal has already run on other drivers, so today's US-Iran headlines and a likely ECB hike are likely to matter more for the dollar and for rate expectations than for a fresh flight to gold specifically. Persistent central bank buying remains one of the more durable supports under gold this year, arguably more so than safe haven flows.---Gold is treading water near $4,400 while the market waits to see whether today's inflation data settles the argument over whether the Fed hikes or holds.Summary:Reuters reports spot gold held nearly steady at $4,400 an ounce during early Asian trading hours on ThursdayUS producer price index data is due at 1230 GMT (8:30am US Eastern), with consumer inflation figures following on FridayA Reuters poll of economists shows a majority expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its September 15 to 16 meeting and for the rest of the year, contrasting with the CME FedWatch Tool, which currently assigns a 60% probability to a rate increase this monthHigher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as goldThe European Central Bank looks set to raise rates on Thursday for the second time this year, aiming to head off inflation stemming from the Iran warThe US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, though gold's safe haven role has been a relatively minor driver of this year's price action compared with other factorsGold prices were little changed during early Asian trading hours on Thursday, according to Reuters, as investors held back ahead of key inflation data that could shape the path of US interest rates. Spot gold held close to $4,400 an ounce, with market participants reluctant to take on fresh positions before the releases.The US producer price index is due at 1230 GMT, or 8:30am US Eastern time, with consumer inflation figures following on Friday. Both reports are expected to weigh heavily on how the Federal Reserve approaches its meeting later this month. Notably, the outlook itself is far from settled. A Reuters poll of economists points to a majority expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its September 15 to 16 meeting and to keep them unchanged for the rest of the year, again defying market pricing for further tightening. That sits in contrast to the CME FedWatch Tool, which currently assigns a 60% probability to a rate hike this month, underlining how divided views remain heading into the data. Higher interest rates generally make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive to hold.Also in focus today is the European Central Bank, which looks set to raise rates for the second time this year in an effort to head off an energy driven surge in inflation tied to the war in Iran, according to Reuters. The broader conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, a backdrop that has periodically supported gold through the year, though its safe haven role has arguably been a secondary factor in the metal's 2026 performance compared with dollar moves, central bank buying and shifting rate expectations. With so much data and policy action concentrated in a short window, today's producer price figures may do more to clarify the rate path than any single headline out of the Middle East. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.