With ING pencilling in a 25 basis point hike across every scenario it considers, today's meeting is likely to be less about the rate decision itself and more about the accompanying language and projections. The spread ING lays out between its most dovish and most hawkish outcomes, EUR/USD ranging from 1.150 to 1.168 and the 10 year Bund yield from 3.30% to 3.45%, points to meaningful two way risk around the press conference rather than the decision itself. Given the euro and Bund currently sit close to the middle of that range, at 1.161 and 3.40% respectively, positioning into the announcement looks reasonably balanced, leaving room for a sharp move once the tone of the guidance becomes clear.---Earlier:ECB preview: A rate hike expected as markets focus on Lagarde, inflation and future policyEuropean indices: Prices of major European indices move lower as Brent passes $100---ING thinks the ECB's rate move today is close to a formality, it is the tone of the guidance that will actually move markets.Summary:ING expects the ECB to deliver a 25 basis point hike today in every one of the four scenarios it has laid out, taking the depo rate up from its current 2.25% levelThe bank's current baseline read is that inflation risks are tilted to the upside due to higher energy prices and possible second round effects, while growth risks are skewed to the downside in the near term because of the war in the Middle EastING's own base case is a dovish hike, where inflation gets revised slightly higher but the overall balance of risk stays broadly unchanged, and growth projections improve even as downside risks persist, with only a slight pushback against market pricingA more dovish scenario would see the ECB signal a prolonged pause and flag concerns about the bond market, while a more hawkish scenario would point to clear hints of a further hike in October and potentially beyondING attaches different EUR/USD and 10 year Bund yield levels to each scenario, ranging from 1.150 and 3.30% in the very dovish case to 1.168 and 3.45% in the hawkish caseThe euro and Bund yield currently sit at 1.161 and 3.40%, closest to ING's neutral scenario, where inflation risks are seen rising again but growth risk is viewed as more balancedING expects the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points at today's meeting regardless of which way the tone of the accompanying guidance breaks, according to a scenario framework the bank published ahead of the decision. The current depo rate stands at 2.25%, with the ECB maintaining a data dependent, meeting by meeting approach heading into the announcement.The bank's note, illustrated in an accompanying graphic, sets out four possible outcomes built around inflation, growth and the tone of interest rate guidance. In the current stance, ING sees upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices and the possibility of second round effects, while growth risks remain tilted to the downside in the near term because of the war in the Middle East.At the dovish end of the spectrum, ING's very dovish scenario has the ECB delivering the expected hike while signalling a prolonged pause and voicing concern about bond market conditions, a combination the bank associates with a weaker euro near 1.150 and a 10 year Bund yield around 3.30%. ING's own base case sits just above that in a dovish hike scenario, where inflation projections are revised slightly higher without shifting the broader balance of risk, growth forecasts improve while downside risks linger, and policymakers offer only a slight pushback against market pricing while keeping their options open. That scenario is associated with EUR/USD near 1.157 and a Bund yield around 3.35%.Moving toward the hawkish end, a neutral scenario would see the ECB acknowledge that the latest escalation in the region is adding fresh upside inflation risk, while treating growth risks as more balanced following improved projections, and signalling that another hike in the coming months remains possible. ING pairs that outcome with EUR/USD around 1.163 and a Bund yield near 3.40%, close to where both currently trade. In its most hawkish scenario, ING sees the ECB acknowledging that the inflation impact may be larger than initially thought, requiring continued policy action, alongside a bigger than expected upward revision to growth projections, with clear hints of a further hike in October and potentially beyond. That outcome carries the highest levels in ING's framework, with EUR/USD near 1.168 and the Bund yield around 3.45%.With the euro and Bund currently trading closest to ING's neutral case, the bank's framework suggests markets are already leaning toward the view that today's hike will come with a firmer tone rather than a dovish one, leaving scope for a larger reaction if the ECB's guidance ultimately lands closer to either extreme of ING's range. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.