As political tensions escalate over an alleged “shuddhikaran havan” (purification ritual) held at Ramlila Maidan in Uttarakhand’s Haldwani following a rally by Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge, both the ruling BJP and the Congress have intensified their outreach to the Scheduled Caste (SC) groups in the run-up to the state Assembly elections slated for February 2027.The controversy erupted two days after Kharge’s August 8 rally at Haldwani’s Ramlila Maidan, when the Shri Ram Sena Dharmarth Seva Nyas conducted a “purification” ritual at the ground.AdvertisementHaldwani remained a political focal point Wednesday when BJP national president Nitin Nabin arrived in the city to attend the party’s extended state executive committee meeting, where he accused the Congress of trying to turn the Ramlila Maidan episode into a political issue and questioned its record on Dalit icons like B R Ambedkar and Babu Jagjivan Ram.Nabin accused the Congress of having a “history of insulting Dalits” and using the community as a “vote bank” over the alleged “purification” row.Read | Mallikarjun Kharge ‘shuddhikaran’ row: Month later, Uttarakhand police file FIRThe political significance of the controversy, particularly its possible impact on Dalit voters, was underscored by Uttarakhand BJP chief Mahendra Bhatt on Saturday. He said the people would “punish” the Congress for allegedly trying to divide society by electing BJP candidates in all SC-reserved Assembly constituencies in the state.Advertisement“We have always won the majority of SC-reserved Assembly seats in Uttarakhand. This time we will win all the seats,” Bhatt said.Uttarakhand has 13 SC-reserved seats in its 70-member Assembly, accounting for 18.57% of the total. Leaders of both parties, however, believe the Haldwani controversy could have implications beyond Uttarakhand, particularly in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, which are also scheduled to go to polls early next year and are electorally important because of their larger share of SC-reserved constituencies.SC factor in UttarakhandIn Uttarakhand, the BJP won 11 of the 13 SC-reserved seats in 2017, with an average vote share of 46.29% and an average winning margin of 6,840 votes. The Congress won the remaining two, with an average vote share of 42% and a margin of 1,763 votes. The BJP had then swept the state.In 2022, when the BJP retained power under CM Pushkar Singh Dhami, its tally in the SC-reserved seats fell to nine. However, its average vote share increased to 50% and its average winning margin rose to 8,572 votes in these seats.The Congress doubled its tally to four SC seats. Its average winning margin increased to 6,995 votes, while its vote share remained at around 42%.Punjab calculationsIn Punjab, where Dalits account for around 32% of the population, 34 of the 117 Assembly seats are reserved for SC candidates — nearly 29% of the Assembly.An analysis of the results in these 34 constituencies shows the importance of the SC vote to electoral outcomes. In 2017, when the Congress returned to power with 77 seats, it won 21 SC-reserved seats. Its average vote share in these seats was 43%, with an average winning margin of 15,634 votes.The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had then won 20 seats overall, secured nine SC-reserved seats, with an average vote share of 40% and an average margin of 15,033 votes. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won three reserved seats, with a vote share of 34.65% and an average margin of 4,356 votes.In 2022, when the AAP swept to power with 92 seats, it increased its tally in the SC-reserved constituencies to 28. Its average vote share rose to 49%, while its average winning margin more than doubled to 31,384 votes.The Congress, by contrast, won only five SC-reserved seats. Its average vote share fell to 35% and its average margin dropped to 5,671 votes. The BJP failed to win any of the 34 reserved seats.Dalit vote in UPIn UP, Dalits account for around 21% of the population, while 84 of the state’s 403 Assembly constituencies are reserved for SC candidates.The BJP won 69 of these seats in 2017, with an average vote share of 44.78% and an average winning margin of 35,074 votes. The Samajwadi Party (SP) won seven, with a 37% average vote share and an average margin of 6,540 votes. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), whose core support base involves Dalits, could win only two SC-reserved seats, with an average vote share of 34.72% and a margin of 2,368 votes. The Congress failed to win any SC seats.The Congress again drew a blank in the SC-reserved constituencies in 2022, while the BJP’s tally fell to 58. Despite the decline in seats, the BJP’s average vote share increased to 47%, although its average winning margin fell to 29,162 votes.The SP increased its tally to 16 SC-reserved seats, with its average vote share rising to 41.87% and its winning margin roughly doubling to 13,967 votes.Pre-poll playUttarakhand Congress general secretary Amarjeet Singh, who is also the party’s social media in-charge for Punjab, said the Haldwani controversy would become an issue in the upcoming elections.“Dalits have understood that the BJP has only used them for political gains, while only the Congress has worked for their welfare and empowerment. They don’t trust the BJP any more. This is going to have an impact on the results in SC-reserved seats in all the poll-bound states,” Singh said.The BJP, too, has been going all out to woo Dalit voters. Beginning July 29, the party activists will, up to February 20 next year, carry soil from the birthplace of Sant Ravidas in Varanasi in 131 kalash (urns) to different parts of the country. The exercise is part of a “samrasta yatra” from Jalandhar in Punjab to Varanasi, being organised as part of celebrations marking the 650th birth anniversary of the 15th-century saint-poet.