SPY Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Target Near 745, Larger Head & ShoulderState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYtbradfieldThis is a developing Elliott Wave interpretation and will be adjusted as price action unfolds. Educational purposes only, not financial advice. This chart shows my current Elliott Wave count for SPY on the 1-hour timeframe, alongside a potentially developing larger Head & Shoulders topping structure. Larger Elliott Wave Structure The June high is labeled Wave III, followed by a broad Wave IV correction. I am counting that correction as an A-B-C-D-E structure, completing near the early-August low. From there, SPY produced a strong five-wave advance labeled 1-2-3-4-5, completing Wave V near 779. That high also forms the Head (H) of the larger Head & Shoulders pattern, with the June high representing the Left Shoulder (LS). Current Decline From the August high, I am counting a new bearish impulse. The first decline completed Wave 1, followed by a Wave 2 retracement into the early-September high. SPY is now potentially progressing through Wave 3. The smaller white and green counts show the lower-degree subdivisions I am tracking within this decline. The expectation is for these nested waves to ultimately complete the larger Wave 3 around the primary target zone. Wave 3 Target: 745.37 My primary target for Wave 3 is approximately 745.37, based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This level also lines up with the projected completion of the lower-degree wave structure, giving the area additional technical significance. If SPY reaches this zone and completes five waves down, I would look for a corrective Wave 4 bounce, followed by another decline in Wave 5 toward roughly 735. That would complete the larger Wave I decline from the August high. Potential Right Shoulder After Wave I completes, the chart projects a larger Wave II recovery back toward approximately 760. If that occurs, the recovery could form the Right Shoulder (RS) of the larger Head & Shoulders: Left Shoulder: June high Head: August high near 779 Right Shoulder: Potential Wave II recovery toward 760 This creates an interesting overlap between the Elliott Wave count and the classical topping pattern. Bigger Picture If the right shoulder forms and subsequently breaks down, the chart projects the beginning of a much larger Wave III decline, with the broader downside path potentially extending toward the low 700s/710s. That longer-term projection remains speculative and depends on the intermediate wave structure developing as shown. For now, the sequence I am watching is: Wave 3 → ~745 → Wave 4 bounce → Wave 5 toward ~735 → Wave II recovery / Right Shoulder → potential larger Wave III decline. The 745.37 level is the immediate focus. Price behavior there should help determine whether this count continues to develop as projected. This is a developing Elliott Wave interpretation and will be adjusted as price action unfolds. Educational purposes only, not financial advice.