Fed rate hike bets surge as Wall Street analysts converge on September move

Wait 5 sec.

It is getting increasingly difficult to find anyone willing to stand in the way of a Fed rate hike this week.The shift in analyst expectations has been pretty striking as we get into the new week. That especially after the US CPI report on Friday, continued tensions between US and Iran, and a further rise in long-term bond yields. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and HSBC have all moved towards a 25 bps hike in September, after previously expecting the Fed to leave rates unchanged.And for some, September is no longer looking like a one-and-done move.HSBC now expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 bps in both September and December. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has made the same change in bringing forward a hike it had previously only expected in December.Goldman Sachs is a little less aggressive, pencilling in a 25 bps move this week after previously forecasting no change. But perhaps the more interesting part of its argument is less about the inflation data itself and more about what markets are already expecting."We think that the FOMC will be reluctant to surprise", Goldman economist David Mericle said.That matters when markets are now pricing around an 87% chance of a rate hike. Once expectations get that far along, holding rates steady becomes a much bigger policy signal than it otherwise would be.Taking a step back, the latest market developments are also a key reason as to why the consensus has shifted so quickly.Inflation readings last week came in firm enough to raise doubts over whether the disinflation trend is really continuing, while oil prices have pushed back above $100 and Treasury yields remain around multi-year highs.JP Morgan economists summed up the change as a week of rising bond yields, higher energy prices and inflation data strong enough to make a September hike "more likely than not".And the hawkish shift is beginning to extend further down the road.Deutsche Bank already expects hikes in September and December and is now adding another 25 bps move in March 2027 to its forecast.That is probably the bigger story heading into Wednesday. A September hike is rapidly becoming the consensus call. The more important question for markets may be whether the Fed treats it as an insurance move against inflation, or the beginning of another tightening sequence. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.