ALEX TRAVELLI2026年9月14日在印度主办金砖峰会之际，对华贸易问题很可能与两国争议边界一道成为突出议题。 Manish Swarup/Associated PressTo understand India’s trade imbalance with China, look inside Indian factories.要理解印度与中国之间的贸易失衡，只需去印度的工厂看看就能找到答案。Many of the big machines are Chinese, as are the electronic components and materials feeding them. An electric vehicle plant needs rare-earth magnets from China, while Indian drugmakers rely on Chinese pharmaceutical ingredients.许多大型机器来自中国，为其提供支持的电子元件和原材料也同样来自中国。一家电动汽车厂需要从中国进口稀土磁体，而印度的制药企业则依赖中国的原料药。India has spent years trying to become less dependent on its giant neighbor. Instead, it has been buying more.印度多年来一直试图减少对这个庞大邻国的依赖。但结果恰恰相反：它从中国购买的东西更多了。The total volume of goods exchanged between the two countries has nearly doubled over the past five years, to $151 billion a year. But the trade has become more unbalanced than ever. India now buys roughly seven times as much from China as it sells there.两国之间的商品贸易总额在过去五年里几乎翻了一番，达到每年1510亿美元。但贸易失衡也比以往任何时候都更加严重。印度现在从中国进口的商品金额大约是其对华出口额的七倍。That surge came even as relations between India and China went into a deep freeze. A bloody hand-to-hand skirmish at the Himalayan border in 2020 killed at least 24 soldiers and brought a run of high-level diplomacy to an abrupt halt. On Saturday, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, will set foot in India for the first time in more than six years.这一激增发生在印中关系陷入严重僵局之际。2020年，两国军队在喜马拉雅边境地区发生血腥的肉搏战，至少造成24名士兵死亡，也使两国一系列高层外交活动戛然而止。周六，中国最高领导人习近平时隔六年多首次踏上印度的土地。For India, the imbalance creates a difficult problem. Its industrial ambitions depend heavily on Chinese goods, even as that dependence exposes India to strategic risks and makes it harder for its companies to gain the scale needed to compete with Chinese rivals. Now, with the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran driving up energy costs, Chinese imports are widening India’s global trade deficit and weakening its currency.对印度而言，这种贸易失衡造成了一个棘手的问题。印度的工业发展雄心高度依赖中国商品，但这种依赖又使印度面临战略风险，并让印度企业更难获得与中国竞争对手抗衡所需的规模。如今，随着美以对伊朗的战争推高能源成本，中国进口进一步扩大了印度的全球贸易逆差，并令印度货币承压。India is not alone in struggling with a flood of low-cost Chinese goods. China’s record trade surplus reached nearly $1.2 trillion last year, deepening concerns among trading partners over the growing dominance of Chinese companies across industries.印度并不是唯一一个难以应对廉价中国商品大量涌入的国家。去年，中国创下近1.2万亿美元的贸易顺差，加剧了贸易伙伴对中国企业在各个行业日益占据主导地位的担忧。Those tensions spilled into the open this month at a gathering of economic officials from the Group of 20 nations. The U.S. Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, accused China of blocking a joint statement criticizing countries “with excessive and persistent external surpluses.”本月，这些矛盾在二十国集团各国经济官员的一次会议上公开爆发。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特指责中国阻挠一份批评那些“长期存在过度对外顺差”国家的联合声明。中国公司希望利用印度年轻的劳动力。中国对印贸易的某些限制措施似乎意在维护这一优势。As India hosts China at the BRICS summit this weekend, analysts expect trade to loom large as a source of tension, alongside the two countries’ disputed border.随着印度于周末在金砖国家峰会上接待中国，分析人士预计，贸易问题将成为一个重要矛盾来源，与两国存在争议的边境问题并列。Both sides seem to prefer quiet along the border for now. The harder problem may be their economic relationship.目前，双方似乎都希望边境地区保持平静。更棘手的问题或许是两国的经济关系。For India, keeping Chinese goods out is not an option.对印度来说，将中国商品拒之门外并不是一个选项。“We will need to engage with them,” said Shekhar Aiyar, director of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. India should “aggressively invite Chinese firms in — especially in critical sectors like green technology, semiconductors, manufacturing, where China is the world leader,” Mr. Aiyar said. In batteries and solar power alone, he estimated, China has a 30 percent cost advantage over any other exporter.“我们需要与他们接触，”印度国际经济关系研究委员会主任谢卡尔·艾亚尔说。印度应该“积极邀请中国企业进来——尤其是在绿色技术、半导体、制造业等中国作为世界领先者的关键领域”，艾亚尔说。他估计，仅就电池和太阳能领域，中国的成本优势就比其他任何出口国高出30%。After the 2020 border clash, India took an aggressive posture toward China. In retaliation, it banned TikTok and dozens of other consumer-facing Chinese apps and restricted Chinese companies’ ability to invest in Indian start-ups.2020年边境冲突后，印度对中国采取了强硬姿态。作为报复，它封禁了TikTok和数十款面向消费者的中国应用，并限制中国企业对印度初创公司的投资。At the time, multinational companies were looking to move some supply chains out of China, and India appeared well positioned to benefit. For a brief moment, India looked capable of challenging China’s status as the “factory to the world.”当时，跨国公司正寻求将部分供应链迁出中国，而印度看起来正处于一个有利位置，有望从中受益。短暂的一段时间里，印度似乎有能力挑战中国作为“世界工厂”的地位。That did not happen. Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries captured much of the investment, while China remained at the center of most supply chains.但这并没有发生。越南和其他东南亚国家吸引了大部分投资，而中国仍处于大多数供应链的中心位置。Santosh Pai, a lawyer in New Delhi who advises Chinese and Indian companies, said Vietnam had secured large-scale investments as a manufacturing alternative to China — even though it, like India, imports heavily from China for essential equipment and materials. Vietnam’s supply chain, he said, is more integrated with China and the country courts Chinese investment more aggressively.新德里律师桑托什·帕伊为中国和印度企业提供咨询。他说，越南作为中国的制造业替代地获得了大规模投资——尽管越南和印度一样，严重依赖从中国进口关键设备和原材料。他说，越南的供应链与中国的融合程度更高，而且它也更积极地招揽中国投资。Mr. Pai said India’s efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China had produced mixed results. Even imports ostensibly coming from elsewhere are often Chinese goods processed or repackaged in Southeast Asia.帕伊说，印度减少对华经济依赖的努力产生了喜忧参半的结果。即便是名义上来自其他国家的进口商品，很多实际上也是中国商品，只是在东南亚经过加工或重新包装。“The trade measures are well intentioned, but they don’t all work the way we want,” he said. “There is a lot of excess supply in China and a lot of excess demand in India.”“这些贸易措施的出发点是好的，但它们并不都能按照我们希望的方式发挥作用，”他说。“中国有大量过剩产能，而印度有大量过剩需求。”That leaves room for dealmaking. India wants to have access to Chinese money and technology. China wants India’s potentially enormous market.这就给双方留下了谈判和交易的空间。印度希望获得中国的资金和技术，中国则希望进入印度这个潜力巨大的市场。印度的电动汽车需要来自中国的稀土磁体。But neither is willing to end up on the losing side of that exchange. Chinese companies do not want to miss the chance to build their brands in fast-growing India, even if its average consumer still has relatively little to spend. India, meanwhile, wants to protect its companies from far more efficient competitors.但双方都不愿意在这笔交易中成为输家。中国公司不想错过在快速增长的印度建立品牌的机会，即使印度普通消费者的消费能力仍然相对有限。与此同时，印度希望保护本国企业免受效率高得多的竞争对手的冲击。The tension is sharpest in high-value, high-tech manufacturing. India wants Chinese investments, but investment that helps build an Indian industrial base. Apple’s iPhone manufacturing, about a quarter of which has shifted to India, is a prime example.这种矛盾在高价值、高科技制造业领域最为突出。印度希望获得中国投资，但想要的是有助于建立印度工业基础的投资。苹果公司的iPhone生产就是一个典型例子，目前约有四分之一的iPhone产能已经转移到印度。China has an obvious interest in keeping its position as the world’s indispensable manufacturer, even if individual Chinese companies want to take advantage of India’s young work force and government subsidies. Some of its restrictions on trade with India appear intended to preserve that advantage.中国显然希望保持自己作为世界不可或缺的制造中心的地位，即便个别中国企业希望利用印度年轻的劳动力和政府补贴。中国对印贸易的一些限制措施似乎意在维护这一优势。The struggle extends even to the movement of people.这种角力甚至延伸到人员流动。For much of the five years after the 2020 clash, travel was constrained by tit-for-tat restrictions, beginning with India’s blocking Chinese business and tourist visas and China’s responding in kind, with Covid-19 restrictions further complicating travel.2020年冲突后的五年大部分时间里，双方采取了针锋相对的限制措施，导致人员往来受限。印度先是禁止发放中国商务和旅游签证，中国随后采取对等措施，而新冠疫情的限制又进一步给人员往来增加了复杂性。India began issuing visas more freely last year. But China has tightened its exit rules, preventing some Chinese citizens from traveling to places like India if it deems them a threat to national industrial or technological security.印度去年开始放松签证的发放。但中国收紧了出境规定，如果认为某些中国公民前往印度等地可能对国家工业或技术安全构成威胁，就会阻止他们出境。Visas are among the practical disputes that Mr. Xi and India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, could address at the summit, Mr. Pai said. “India will want some reassurances, both for business visas to China and engineers from China,” he said.帕伊说，签证问题是习近平和印度总理莫迪在峰会上可能讨论的实际分歧之一。“印度希望得到一些保证，包括有关赴华商务签证以及中国工程师来印的问题，”他说。India has leverage, too. By working with companies like Taiwan’s Foxconn, one of Apple’s main contract manufacturers, it can gradually erode pieces of China’s industrial dominance. It can also restrict access to its domestic market of 1.4 billion people, a prize that will become more valuable as the average incomes in India rise.印度也有筹码。通过与台湾富士康等企业合作——富士康是苹果的主要代工厂商之一——印度可以逐步削弱中国在工业领域的部分主导地位。印度还可以限制中国企业进入其14亿人口的国内市场；随着印度人均收入不断提高，这一市场将变得越来越有价值。But China has shown a willingness to use its dominance in strategic sectors as leverage. Rare-earth magnets, needed for electric cars and many other high-growth industries, are just one example. China has also gained enormous power over the production of many pharmaceutical ingredients, making India’s world-leading drug companies dependent on Chinese supplies.但中国已经表明，它愿意利用自己在战略性行业中的主导地位作为筹码。电动汽车以及许多其他高速增长行业所需的稀土磁体就是一个例子。中国还在许多原料药的生产上拥有巨大的影响力，使印度这个世界领先的制药业大国依赖中国供应。Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai, worries about India’s global trade deficit.孟买ASK财富顾问公司首席投资官索姆纳特·慕克吉对印度的全球贸易逆差感到担忧。It is “simple arithmetic,” he said, that the Indian rupee will remain under pressure as long as India buys more than it sells. The central bank can manage that, he said, even though higher oil prices and a flight to artificial intelligence stocks in the United States have made the task trickier.他说，只要印度买得多、卖得少，印度卢比就会持续承压，这是“简单的算术”。他说，印度央行可以对此进行管理，但油价上涨以及资金涌向美国人工智能股票使这项工作变得更加棘手。“It is a fact that many countries, China and now the U.S. as well, have started weaponizing trade,” Mr. Mukherjee said. “China’s weaponized product access has become a source of massive concern.”“一个事实是，许多国家——中国，现在美国也是如此——已经开始把贸易武器化，”慕克吉说。“中国将商品供应变成武器已经成为一个令人极其担忧的问题。”Keith Bradsher and Hari Kumar contributed reporting.Alex Travelli是时报驻新德里记者，报道印度和南亚其他地区的商业和经济新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site