FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD:The US dollar rallied across the board on Wednesday following the FOMC decision as the market initially viewed it as more hawkish than expected. As a reminder, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected in an unanimous decision. Moreover, the part saying that inflation remained elevated in part reflecting supply shocks was removed. The SEP showed an upward revision for growth and inflation, and downward revision for unemployment.The most important thing was the dot plot where the Fed projected just one more rate hike in 2026, with rates staying higher throughout 2027 before rate cuts coming in 2028. That was more dovish compared to market's pricing which saw one more rate hike in 2026 and two more in 2027. I think this shows that the Fed has low appetite for an extended tightening cycle. Fed Chair Warsh mostly repeated his Jackson Hole speech, but he was still seen as being more hawkish. I'm not sure why. Anyway, the market brought forward rate hike expectations for October, with the probability now standing around 50%. I guess that's because Warsh mentioned that they want to see a timelier return to the 2% target.The market’s focus is now on tomorrow’s UN General Assembly, as Trump called a meeting with Gulf leaders on the sidelines to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. The Iranian delegation was also allowed to participate in the Assembly, so there will likely be a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.Keep in mind that a de-escalation would send oil prices lower, further easing inflation and rate hike concern, while weighing on the greenback.Economic data will also be important given the current market’s pricing. When positioning and market expectations become stretched, even a modest shift in the data can trigger a significant reversal. If US data starts surprising to the downside, expectations for aggressive rate hikes will likely be reduced, leading to a fall in the US dollar.INR:On the INR side, the currency erased all the RBI intervention-driven gains recently as it quickly caught up with the fundamentals after oil prices surged to new highs. Higher oil prices are negative for the rupee because India imports most of its crude, so a larger oil bill increases demand for dollars, widens the trade deficit and puts downward pressure on INR.In the short-term, the INR will continue to be driven mainly by oil prices, so the developments in the Middle East will be key. A de-escalation should give the Rupee a boost and we might see the USD/INR pair dropping back to the 95.10 support. Conversely, further escalation will likely trigger a break above the key 96.10 resistance and push the USD/INR pair to all-time highs.In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical levels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINRstalled at the major resistance zone around the 96.10 level. This is where the sellers will likely continue to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 95.10 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the record highs next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 95.10 support.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will want to see a break to target new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have Trump meeting with Gulf leaders and potentially with Iran’s President at the UN General Assembly. On Wednesday, we get the Flash US PMIs. On Thursday, we have the Trump-Xi meeting. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.