JESSICA CHEN WEISS2026年9月24日Last year, the United States and China demonstrated they could inflict serious pain on each other.去年，美中两国展示了给对方造成重创的能力。The Trump administration imposed tariffs and technology controls; China hit back by restricting exports of rare earths and other materials essential for American industry. Factories and consumers on both sides of the Pacific felt the effects. But neither country could force the other to back down, and the confrontation ended last October, when they agreed to a yearlong truce.特朗普政府加征关税并实施技术限制，中国则通过限制稀土及其他美国工业必需材料的出口予以反击。太平洋两岸的工厂和消费者均受到波及。但两国均未能迫使对方让步，这场对抗最终于去年10月以双方同意休战一年告终。With that truce about to end, the meeting on Thursday between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China opens a new chapter that could be pivotal for the relationship between the United States and China.随着一年休战即将期满，特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平周四举行的会晤开启了新篇章，这可能成为美中关系走向的关键节点。The meeting at the White House is an opportunity for the two superpowers to embrace the undeniable lessons of the past year and begin building a durable détente by abandoning disruptive fantasies that either side can decisively “win.”白宫的这场会晤为两个超级大国提供了契机：吸取过去一年不容回避的教训，摒弃任何一方能够取得决定性“胜利”的破坏性幻想，进而着手建立持久的缓和关系。Beijing and Washington now know that neither can land a knockout blow because each possesses formidable advantages that the other struggles to match.北京与华盛顿如今都已清楚，由于各自拥有对方难以企及的硬核优势，任何一方都无法给对方以致命一击。America has unrivaled financial power and leads in semiconductor design, in making the equipment essential for chip manufacturing and in the most advanced artificial intelligence models. China is the world’s largest exporter. It dominates the global supply of rare-earth elements and critical minerals and the production of the high-powered magnets vital for advanced electronics, cars and weapons. Chinese-made chemicals and other ingredients are crucial for pharmaceuticals used in America. Regarding A.I., China has shot ahead in providing cheap open-weight models being rapidly adopted around the world, including in the United States.美国拥有无可匹敌的金融实力，并在半导体设计、芯片制造核心设备以及最先进的人工智能模型方面保持领先。中国则是全球最大的出口国，主导着全球稀土元素与关键矿物的供应，以及先进电子产品、汽车和武器不可或缺的高性能磁体生产。中国制造的化学原料对在美国使用的药品至关重要。在人工智能领域，中国在提供廉价开放权重模型方面迅速走在前列，这些模型正在全球范围内被快速采用，包括在美国。Building a lasting détente could prove as consequential for history as Cold War coexistence was for the United States and the Soviet Union.建立持久的缓和关系的历史意义重大，可能堪比冷战时期和平共处对美苏关系的深远影响。During the Cold War, the nuclear arms race and the prospect of mutually assured destruction caused Washington and Moscow to pull back from the brink. The same calculus holds today, but with an important difference: U.S.-Soviet trade was minimal, but the Chinese and American economies are deeply interdependent.冷战期间，核军备竞赛与相互保证毁灭的前景促使华盛顿和莫斯科从悬崖边缘退缩。同样的逻辑在今天依然适用，但存在一个关键差异：美苏贸易当时微不足道，而如今中美两国经济高度相互依存。Even after last year’s trade confrontation drove bilateral commerce down by 25 percent, China remained America’s third-largest trading partner after Mexico and Canada. Decoupling altogether is neither possible nor desirable, and attempts to weaponize one choke point invite sharp retaliation through another. What Washington and Beijing now face is an updated version of the Cold War’s deterrent: mutually assured economic disruption.即使去年的贸易对抗导致双边贸易额下降了25%，中国依然是继墨西哥和加拿大之后美国的第三大贸易伙伴。完全脱钩既不现实也不可行，试图将某一“卡脖子”领域武器化则势必引发猛烈报复。华盛顿和北京如今面临的是冷战威慑机制的升级版本：相互保证经济破坏。That is the logic of détente — the realization that continued escalation would be too costly.这正是关系缓和的底层逻辑所在——双方意识到对抗持续升级的代价过于高昂。The pursuit of decisive economic and strategic victory is futile, and it is not what the people bearing the costs of the resulting disruption want. Many Chinese and American citizens are tiring of confrontation. Young Americans, in particular, favor cooperation with China rather than confrontation, according to some surveys. In China, too, people are weary, increasingly opting out of the rat race rather than exhausting themselves in an economy that many see as geared toward national strength and the standoff with the United States rather than meeting their own needs.追求决定性的经济和战略胜利是徒劳的，承担对抗代价的普通民众也不希望看到这种破坏。许多中美两国公民已对对抗感到厌倦。部分调查显示，美国年轻一代尤其倾向于对华合作而非对抗。在中国，民众同样感到疲累，越来越多的人选择退出内卷，不愿在一个被许多人视为服务于国家实力和中美对峙而非满足自身需求的经济环境中耗尽精力和心血。Mr. Xi is looking ahead to next year’s Communist Party Congress — the gathering every five years that sets the party’s leadership and direction — and wants calm as it approaches that politically sensitive moment. With U.S. midterm elections looming, Mr. Trump is no doubt eager to secure agricultural trade deals with China that he can present as wins for U.S. farmers. Thursday’s meeting may yield only modest gestures, but the encounter offers something more important over the long run: a chance for both governments to reaffirm what the past year has made clear.习近平正着眼于明年的中国共产党全国代表大会，希望在这一政治敏感时期临近之际保持平稳局势。这一每五年举行一次的大会将确定党的领导层和发展方向。而随着美国中期选举临近，特朗普无疑渴望与中国达成农产品贸易协议，以便将其包装成一场美国农民的胜利。周四的会晤或许只会达成一些适度举措，但从长远来看，这次会晤提供了更具深远意义的契机：让两国政府重申过去一年所明确的事实。Artificial intelligence is expected to be a major topic, and perhaps no issue better illustrates the dangers both countries now face. The warning signs are mounting. In the United States, A.I. systems have tapped into sensitive networks and otherwise behaved unpredictably. And after a California security firm revealed this month that A.I. had helped it find a way to hijack accounts on WeChat, the dominant Chinese messaging app, China’s top spy chief warned that A.I. could slip beyond control and threaten political and social stability.人工智能预计将成为主要议题，也许没有哪个问题能比它更好地凸显两国当前面临的风险。警示信号正不断增加。在美国，人工智能系统已侵入敏感网络并展现出其他不可预测的行为。本月，加州一家安全公司披露人工智能帮助其找到了劫持中国主导社交应用微信账号的方法，中国最高情报主管随后发出警告，称人工智能可能会失控并威胁政治与社会稳定。Such concerns make it all the more important for China and the United States to lower the temperature and keep communication channels open. They could start with discussions that focus initially on common enemies such as ransomware gangs that could use A.I. to exploit vulnerabilities in software, networks and critical industries.这些担忧使得中美两国降低对抗热度、保持沟通渠道畅通显得尤为重要。双方可以从聚焦共同敌人的讨论切入，例如可能利用人工智能攻击软件、网络和关键工业漏洞的勒索软件团伙。None of this means this week’s meeting will produce a major breakthrough, or that some grand geopolitical bargain is on the horizon, or that the two nations will stop jostling over trade, technology and global influence.这并不意味着本周的会晤会取得重大突破，也不意味着某种宏大的地缘政治妥协即将来临，或是两国将停止在贸易、技术和全球影响力方面的角逐。What truly matters is that both absorb the reality that maximalist demands and threats serve neither country’s interests and begin laying the foundations for a more stable future. Washington must understand that China seeks greater influence in the world and less vulnerability to foreign pressure, not to cripple one of its biggest trading partners. Beijing, for its part, must recognize that every time it weaponizes its dominance of critical metals, it hastens U.S. efforts to diversify its own supply chains, thereby eroding China’s leverage and hardening American fears about Beijing’s intentions.真正重要的是，双方都能认清极限施压和威胁不符合任何一方利益这一现实，并开始为更稳定的未来奠定基础。华盛顿必须明白，中国寻求提升国际影响力和抵御外部压力的能力，并非为了击垮其最大的贸易伙伴之一；北京方面也必须意识到，每当其将关键金属主导地位武器化时，都会加速美国推进供应链多元化的努力，从而削弱中国的筹码，并加剧美国对北京意图的担忧。The larger promise of embracing a durable détente lies not only in avoiding disruption now, but in widening what may become possible. A more stable relationship could create regular communication, make crises easier to manage and open space for sustained and badly needed work on humanity’s biggest challenges, such as A.I., climate change and global health, which neither country can solve alone.建立持久缓和关系的更大意义不仅在于避免当下的破坏，还在于拓展未来的可能性。更加稳定的关系能够建立定期沟通机制，使危机更容易管控，并为在人类面临的最大挑战（如人工智能、气候变化和全球卫生等任何一国都无法单独解决的问题）上开展持续且急需的合作开辟空间。This doesn’t require mutual trust, only the wisdom and restraint to keep competition from consuming the rest of the relationship.这并不需要相互信任，只需要保持理性与克制，避免竞争吞噬两国关系的其余部分。Jessica Chen Weiss是约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院美国、中国与全球事务未来研究所所长。她即将出版《中国想要什么：以及这对世界意味着什么》一书。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。