ANTON TROIANOVSKI2026年9月24日 Source: Pew Research Center.President Trump’s shift to a friendlier stance on China mirrors a startling change in public opinion. Across the political spectrum, more Americans are seeing China in a positive light.特朗普总统转向更友好的对华立场，折射出公众舆论中令人惊讶的变化。无论政治立场如何，越来越多的美国人正以积极眼光看待中国。Surveys from leading pollsters, including two released this week, show that China’s image in the United States has improved markedly in recent years. People are still skeptical about China, but as Mr. Trump prepares to give the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, a warm welcome in Washington this week, his accommodation echoes what some experts see as a desire among Americans for a more stable relationship with Beijing.包括本周发布的两份报告在内，来自主流民调机构的调查显示，近年来中国在美国的形象显著改善。人们对中国仍存疑虑，但随着特朗普准备本周在华盛顿热烈欢迎中国领导人习近平，他的顺应态度印证了部分专家的观点，即美国人渴望与北京建立更稳定的关系。“There really is this warming toward China, even if on balance views still remain fairly negative,” said Laura Silver, an associate director at the Pew Research Center, which published survey data on Wednesday showing that 54 percent of Americans now have a “cold” view of China, compared with 68 percent in 2021.“对华态度确实在回暖，即使总体看法依然相当负面，”皮尤研究中心副主任劳拉·西尔弗(Laura Silver)说。该中心于周三发布的调查数据显示，目前有54%的美国人对中国持“冷淡”看法，而2021年该比例为68%。The surveys do not pinpoint the reasons for the shift, which appears to be more pronounced among younger Americans. But experts point to fading memories of the coronavirus pandemic, awareness of China’s tech innovations and disaffection with Mr. Trump’s trade wars as contributing to a changing mood that could affect how U.S. politicians approach China.这些调查并未阐明情绪转变的具体原因，且这种转变在年轻美国人中似乎相对显著。但专家指出，对新冠大流行的记忆淡化，对中国科技创新的认知，以及对特朗普贸易战的不满共同促成了一种可能影响美国政客对华态度的情绪转变。The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a think tank that has long studied the country’s foreign policy views, has picked up a reversal over just the last two years. By 2024, the share of Americans who favored “friendly cooperation and engagement with China” had declined to just 40 percent. But when the organization asked the question again this July, that number had risen to 57 percent, including 68 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans, according to data published this week.长期研究美国外交政策观点的智库芝加哥全球事务委员会发现，仅在过去两年里就发生了一次态度逆转。2024年，支持“与中国进行友好合作与接触”的美国人比例一度降至仅40%。然而，根据本周公布的数据，当该组织今年7月再次调查此问题时，这一比例已升至57%，其中包括68%的民主党人和43%的共和党人。“The attitudes toward China have been really surprising,” said Dina Smeltz, a former State Department official who oversees the Chicago Council’s polling. “They’ve shifted from a majority wanting to limit the rise of China and limit its influence to now a majority of Americans wanting to engage cooperatively with China.”“民众对中国的态度着实令人惊讶，”负责监督芝加哥委员会民调的前国务院官员迪娜·斯梅尔茨说。“他们已从多数人希望限制中国的崛起与影响力，转变为如今多数美国人希望与中国合作接触。”The research organization Gallup found earlier this year that the share of Americans with a favorable view of China had risen to 34 percent, more than double the low point in 2023.研究机构盖洛普今年早些时候发现，对中国持好感的美国人比例已升至34%，是2023年低谷时期的两倍多。The surveys all point to a changed national mood compared with a decade ago, when Mr. Trump’s harsh anti-China rhetoric helped define his winning presidential campaign. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. largely maintained and expanded Mr. Trump’s tough policies, including tariffs and export controls, cementing what appeared to be a bipartisan consensus that the United States needed to push back hard against China’s rise.这些调查均反映出与十年前截然不同的国民情绪，当时特朗普严厉的反华言论助推了他的胜选。小约瑟夫·R·拜登总统在很大程度上维持并扩大了特朗普的强硬政策，包括关税和出口管制，巩固了一个似乎是两党共识的观念：美国需要强硬反击中国的崛起。Now that consensus has weakened, as made plain by Mr. Trump himself. He stepped back last year from tariffs as high as 145 percent to pursue what has looked like an effort of reconciliation with China. It was on display in his deferential visit to Beijing in April and what is expected to be a lavish welcome for Mr. Xi this week — all without Beijing making major concessions on longstanding U.S. demands on trade or security issues.正如特朗普本人所表明的那样，现在这种共识已经弱化。去年，他从高达145%的关税政策上退让，似乎在寻求对华和解。这体现在他4月访问北京时的恭顺，以及预计本周对习近平的隆重欢迎中——而这一切都是在北京没有就贸易或安全等美国长期诉求做出重大让步的情况下发生的。人们在拍摄特朗普总统5月访问北京时的车队。The polls show that Republicans remain more hawkish on China than Democrats, though Republicans’ views of China have grown more positive as well — perhaps a reflection of Mr. Trump’s own shift. Despite the country’s polarization, Democrats have also moved in the same direction.民调表明，共和党人在对华问题上仍比民主党人更为鹰派，不过共和党人对中国的看法也变得更加正面——这或许反映了特朗普自身的立场转变。尽管美国存在政治极化，但民主党人也正朝着相同方向发展。Just a year or two ago, politicians could “propose almost any kind of tough policy against China and the public would be behind it,” said Bruce Stokes, an expert on foreign policy polling at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank. “This public opinion data seems to suggest that support for a tough-on-China policy has weakened a little bit.”仅仅一两年前，政客们“提出几乎任何针对中国的强硬政策，公众都会予以支持”，智库德国马歇尔基金会外交政策民调专家布鲁斯·斯托克斯说。“这些民调数据似乎表明，对强硬对华政策的支持已略有减弱。”Americans’ views of China, of course, could quickly shift again, especially amid fears of its artificial intelligence prowess and the risk of armed conflict over Taiwan. Pollsters note that Americans generally spend little time thinking about foreign policy and rarely let international issues determine how they vote.当然，美国人对中国的看法可能会再次迅速转变，特别是在对其人工智能实力的担忧以及因台湾问题引发武装冲突风险的背景下。民调专家指出，美国人通常很少花时间思考外交政策，也极少让国际问题决定其投票意向。But people who study the U.S. relationship with China see the polling figures as reflective of a changing geopolitical dynamic and, perhaps, angst over the United States’ place in the world. In the Pew and Chicago Council polls, younger adults are significantly more positively disposed toward China, evidence of a generational shift.但研究美中关系的人士认为，民调数据反映出不断变化的地缘政治动态，或许也折射出对美国国际地位的焦虑。在皮尤和芝加哥委员会的民调中，较年轻成年人对中国的态度明显更加积极，这印证了代际转变。“Younger people have known China as a superpower,” Ms. Silver, the Pew researcher, said. Older generations, by contrast, are more likely to associate China with the developing world, Communism and the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, she said.“年轻人所认识的中国是一个超级大国，”皮尤研究员西尔弗说。她表示，相比之下，老一代人更有可能将中国与发展中国家、共产主义以及1989年的天安门广场大屠杀联系起来。Younger people may also be more aware of China’s technological innovations and cultural exports, as evidenced by the “Chinamaxxing” trends ricocheting around the internet. That awareness comes in contrast to a sense of a decline in the United States’ global standing: 62 percent of Americans say the country is respected less in the world today than it was 10 years ago, according to the Chicago Council.年轻群体可能也对中国的技术创新和文化输出有更多认知，在互联网上风靡的“中国最大化(Chinamaxxing)”趋势便是明证。这种认知与对美国全球地位衰退的感受形成反差：根据芝加哥委员会的数据，62%的美国人认为，当今美国在世界上受到的尊重不如10年前。“You see fears of what’s happening to America be refracted through assessments of China,” said Nick Zeller, a scholar at the Carter Center in Atlanta who tracks how China and the United States perceive each other. “This positive assessment toward China has more to do with American political tumult domestically than it does China itself.”“你会发现，对美国现状的恐惧通过对中国的评估折射出来，”位于亚特兰大的卡特中心追踪中美互视视角的学者尼克·泽勒表示。“这种对中国的正面评估更多地与美国国内的政治动荡有关，而非中国本身。”Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。