储百亮2026年9月24日When China’s leader, Xi Jinping, arrives at Joint Base Andrews, every step he takes down the stairs from his plane will be scrutinized for clues about his health.中国领导人习近平抵达安德鲁斯联合基地时，他从专机舷梯上走下来的每一步都会受到仔细审视，以寻找有关他健康状况的蛛丝马迹。Mr. Xi is China’s most dominant leader in decades: He is preparing to claim an all-but-certain fourth term in power from late next year, and there is no sign of a likely successor waiting in the wings. And at 73, Mr. Xi is old enough that any stumble or missed meeting ignites speculation abroad about his health. (The topic is heavily censored in China.)习近平是中国数十年来最强势的领导人：他正准备从明年年底开始，几乎毫无悬念地开启第四个任期，而且没有任何迹象显示有潜在的继任者在等待接棒。与此同时，现年73岁的习近平年事已高，以至于任何一次踉跄或缺席会议都会在海外引发有关其健康状况的猜测。(这一话题在中国国内受到严格审查。)No matter what happens on the stairs or during Mr. Xi’s three-day visit to Washington, guesswork about his health and probable longevity is sure to persist.无论习近平在舷梯上的表现如何，也无论他为期三天的华盛顿之行中发生什么，外界围绕其健康状况与可能寿命的种种猜测，肯定还会持续下去。China’s Communist Party does not have clear rules of succession if a leader becomes incapacitated or dies, and Mr. Xi magnified the uncertainties by overturning retirement norms. Mr. Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, retired in 2012 at 69, and his cognitive decline appeared visible in 2022, when he was abruptly escorted from his chair at a party congress, looking confused and upset.中国共产党目前并没有一套明确的继承规则来应对领导人丧失行为能力或去世的情况，而习近平打破退休惯例更是进一步增加了这种不确定性。习近平的前任胡锦涛于2012年退休，当时69岁；到2022年，他的认知能力衰退迹象已较为明显——当时他在一场党代会上被突然搀扶离席，神情显得困惑又不安。In August, Mr. Xi stepped slowly down the stairway of his plane, holding his wife’s hand, when they visited Kyrgyzstan, igniting rumors online about his health.今年8月习近平夫妇访问吉尔吉斯斯坦时，他牵着妻子的手缓慢走下飞机舷梯，由此引发了网上有关他健康状况的传言。The discussion intensified this month after he skipped a dinner at a regional leaders’ meeting in New Delhi. Mr. Xi was absent from a dinner for the BRICS group of developing countries — which includes Brazil, Russia, India and China — according to Indian news reports and a diplomat from one of the participating countries.本月，他缺席在新德里举行的一次地区领导人会议的晚宴后，相关讨论进一步升温。据印度媒体报道及一名与会国外交官透露，习近平缺席了金砖国家的一场晚宴。金砖国家是一个由发展中国家组成的集团，其中包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。There was no suggestion that Mr. Xi was seriously ill. When he left New Delhi, he climbed the stairs to his plane unaided. Still, the absence fed questions in some foreign news reports about Mr. Xi’s health and stamina.目前并无迹象表明习近平患有严重疾病。他离开新德里时是在无人搀扶的情况下独自登上飞机舷梯的。尽管如此，这次缺席仍在一些海外媒体报道中引发了对习近平健康状况与体力的种种疑问。Mr. Xi is a bulky man who has said he became a smoker from his youth in the Chinese countryside, but details of his lifestyle are unclear. A friend of Mr. Xi told U.S. diplomats in 2009 that Mr. Xi, then preparing to succeed Mr. Hu, “did not drink or do drugs,” according to a diplomatic cable disclosed by WikiLeaks.习近平身材魁梧。他曾说，自己年轻时在中国农村生活期间开始吸烟，但外界并不清楚他的生活习惯细节。维基解密披露的一份外交电报显示，习近平的一位友人2009年曾告诉美国外交官，当时正准备接替胡锦涛的习近平“不喝酒不吸毒”。But Dennis Wilder, a former C.I.A. senior analyst who tracked Chinese leaders, told The Wall Street Journal that Mr. Xi had a reputation as a frequent drinker and longtime smoker who did not like to exercise.但据《华尔街日报》报道，曾长期跟踪研究中国领导人的中情局前高级分析师韦德宁(Dennis Wilder)表示，习近平素有嗜酒的名声，长期吸烟，而且不喜欢运动。Mr. Xi has not publicly commented on his health or plans for retiring or staying in office. Last year, he was inadvertently caught on a microphone chatting with Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, about living forever. “People rarely lived to be over 70, but these days, at 70, you are still a child,” a man who appeared to be translating Mr. Xi’s remarks to Mr. Putin was recorded saying in Russian.习近平从未公开谈论自己的健康状况，也没有公开谈论退休或继续执政的打算。去年，他与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京闲聊长生不老的话题时，谈话意外被麦克风录了下来。录音中，一名似乎是在向普京翻译习近平讲话的人用俄语说道：“过去人们活不过70岁，现在70岁还算孩。”Whatever his health, Mr. Xi gets some of the most attentive medical care in the world. Chinese leaders have their own health care system that provides round-the-clock care and checkups at elite hospitals, including the military-run 301 Hospital near the leadership’s headquarters in Beijing.无论习近平的健康状况如何，他都能获得世界上最周到的医疗照护。中国领导人拥有专门的医疗保健体系，可获得全天候医疗服务和检查，地点包括北京中央领导机关附近、由军方管理的301医院等顶级医院。储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。