Friedrich Merz’s demeanour was grim as he stepped before the cameras on Sunday evening to address his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party after two more disappointing state election results. Following what the German chancellor had called the CDU’s “worst defeat in many years” in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, Merz described the result of Sunday’s Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election as a “disaster”. His party won just 4.9% of the vote in the largely rural, eastern, coastal state. This means that, for the first time, it fell short of the 5% threshold needed for entering a state parliament. The CDU found itself squeezed in a contest between the minister-president of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Manuela Schwesig, and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). As in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD topped the poll but fell short of a majority. Schwesig’s campaign was criticised for trying to unite all voters opposed to the AfD behind her and thus harming the chances of other parties. But complaining about political opponents trying to win over your supporters is hardly a compelling argument for the CDU.In Berlin, the evening got worse for Merz. Exit polls suggested the party was on course for 20% there, but in the final count it slipped back to 18.8%. This represents a loss of 9.5 percentage points compared to the last election three years earlier. The Left Party was triumphant, with 25.7% of the vote (up 13.4 percentage points compared with 2023). Here, too, there were state-specific reasons for the CDU’s result. Its governing mayor, Kai Wegner, did not stand for reelection after criticism of his handling of power cuts earlier in the year and his apparent decision to play tennis rather than manage the crisis. Just 20% of Berlin voters were satisfied with the performance of Wegner’s government – in a state where successive leaders from the SPD and CDU have struggled to address challenges around housing affordability, crime and education. But still, one poll finding from election night was telling: just 1% of CDU voters thought Merz was helpful to the party in these elections. So, where does all of this leave Merz – and what happens next? In his post-election statement, Merz recalled local election victories in Hesse and Lower Saxony in March and September. He also doubled down on his ambition to undertake structural reforms as the “antidote to the authoritarian poison which is penetrating ever more deeply in our society”.But the autumn will be tough for Merz. His coalition partner in the federal government, the SPD, has made it clear it expects changes to proposed pension reforms – in particular allowing those with a full contribution history to continue to retire at 63. It has also called into question health and social care reforms already agreed before the summer, suggesting they may need revision. And Merz faces rebellious CDU backbenchers threatening to block the federal budget if bigger tax cuts are not agreed.The eight CDU minister-presidents issued a statement recently, seemingly aimed at ending the debate over Merz’s position. The statement said: “The path to restoring public trust in Christian democracy lies in listening and taking political action, not in discussions about personnel.” But Robin Alexander, a German journalist who reports on the CDU, uncovered that the road to this statement owed much more to disagreements within the party about the way forward than representing unequivocal backing for Merz. And the SPD’s Schwesig, whose internal stock has risen with her election result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, has now criticised Merz’s election night statement. She called for more “humility” rather than doubling down. What happens next?Almost nobody expects Merz to lead the CDU into the next federal elections as party leader and candidate for the role of chancellor. These elections are scheduled for 2029. But there are several possible scenarios moving forward. First, Merz could carry on as party leader and chancellor but the CDU could nominate an alternative chancellor candidate for the 2029 election. However, the alternative candidate’s political authority would be rather limited.Second, Merz could hand over the reins to an alternative as party leader, while carrying on as chancellor. Former German chancellors Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel both did this in 2004 and 2018 respectively. But this would be a blow to Merz’s authority.Third, Merz could be forced out as chancellor and party leader by CDU grandees sooner rather that later. In this scenario, there would be some hurdles to the process. A successor would need to win a majority among MPs in a secret ballot, which is no foregone conclusion.Perhaps the most likely successor candidate is Hendrik Wüst, minister-president of North-Rhine Westphalia. But he stands for a rather moderate course that would not be welcomed by all in the CDU, especially those looking for a rightward turn to combat the AfD. Bavaria’s minister-president, Markus Söder, is another possible option. But he has a weaker starting point. Söder leads the CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union, and lost the battle to stand as chancellor in 2021. At that time, the CDU made clear its expectation was that the chancellor would be one of its own number. The CDU has gone into federal elections with a CSU chancellor candidate twice before, in 1980 and 2002, and ended up losing on both occasions.Boris Rhein from Hesse has also occasionally been floated as an alternative to Merz, but has a relatively low public profile. In each case, contenders might want to keep their powder dry for longer, let Merz push on with difficult reforms and seek to enter the fray closer to the next election.More fundamentally, while Merz has struggled to govern and has been brutally exposed by these elections, the main issue is with the huge strategic difficulty faced by the CDU. How can it push through structural reforms with a reluctant coalition partner, while at the same time retaining moderate voters and shoring up its right flank against the AfD?Merz might depart, but these dilemmas will live on.Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.