ECB's Lane ties steady euro area growth outlook to containment of energy shock

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Lane's comments point to a two-stage inflation path: a near-term increase from a second wave of energy price rises, followed by a decline toward target only from the middle of 2027. That timeline, if it holds, suggests the ECB may need to look through elevated inflation for longer before any dovish shift, which could support the euro if it reinforces expectations of a steady policy stance. The conditional framing, growth holding up "provided" the energy shock does not intensify, keeps the outlook tied closely to how oil and gas prices behave from here, leaving room for a shift in tone if the shock worsens.---Earlier:ECB's Stournaras does not rule out October ECB hike if energy costs or inflation surge---Lane is banking on a steady euro area growth path, but only if the energy shock stays contained, with inflation still expected to rise again before it finally eases in 2027.Summary:ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane said the European economy should continue to grow at a steady but moderate pace, provided the energy shock does not intensify, according to Reuters (referring to a Swiss newspaper interview)Lane said a second wave of energy price increases will result in higher inflation, before it declines toward the ECB's target from mid-2027 onward. European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane said the euro area economy should continue to grow at a steady but moderate pace, provided the current energy shock does not intensify, Reuters reported. The comments add to a running theme in Lane's public remarks through 2026, in which he has repeatedly framed the region's energy-driven inflation pressures as manageable so long as they remain contained rather than broadening into a larger shock.Lane also said a second wave of energy price increases will push inflation higher before it declines toward the ECB's target from the middle of 2027 onward, according to Reuters. The timeline suggests the central bank expects near-term price pressure to persist for some time yet, with any meaningful easing in inflation pushed out beyond the next year. That sits alongside Lane's earlier public comments this year, in which he has distinguished between shocks the ECB can look through and those large enough to require a more forceful policy response.The remarks come as the ECB continues to weigh how much of the current energy pressure reflects a temporary disruption against a more persistent shift in costs. Lane's conditional language, growth continuing provided the shock does not intensify, keeps the central bank's outlook closely tied to how oil and gas prices move from here, rather than committing to a fixed policy path regardless of how the shock evolves.Markets will now watch for confirmation or elaboration of these comments through further ECB commentary, along with incoming euro area inflation and growth data, to gauge whether the mid-2027 timeline for inflation to decline toward target holds up against actual price developments in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.