储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2026年9月22日今年5月，特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平在北京会晤。特朗普在寻求与中国建立务实关系的同时暂缓了对台军售。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesFor China’s leader, Xi Jinping, one important goal of his meeting with President Trump this week may be persuading him to keep delaying $14 billion in proposed U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.对于中国领导人习近平来说，本周与特朗普总统会晤的一个重要目标可能是说服他继续推迟拟议中对台湾的140亿美元军售。China has long claimed the self-governed island of Taiwan as its territory, and Taipei has relied on American military power to counter military threats from Beijing. When they last met, Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump that mishandling tensions over Taiwan could be “extremely dangerous” for the United States and China, a reminder of the risk of crisis between two nuclear-armed powers.中国长期以来一直声称拥有台湾这个自治岛屿的主权，而台北则依靠美国的军事力量来应对来自北京的军事威胁。在两人上次会晤时，习近平警告特朗普，若对台湾问题上的紧张局势处理不当，可能对中美两国来说“十分危险”，这提醒人们注意这两个核武大国之间发生危机的风险。“There’s only one issue that could cause relations between both sides to break down completely or erupt in conflict, and that is Taiwan,” said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.“只有一个问题可能导致双方关系彻底破裂或爆发冲突，那就是台湾问题，”上海复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强说。“Demanding a continued delay in any arms sales may be the most critical issue,” he said.“要求继续推迟军售可能是最关键的问题，”他说。Mr. Trump has described the arms sale plan as a source of leverage with China. After his May summit with Mr. Xi in Beijing, Mr. Trump said he had discussed the deal with the Chinese leader. “It’s a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly,” he said then.特朗普曾将该军售计划描述为对华施压的筹码。在5月于北京与习近平举行峰会后，特朗普表示，他已经与中国领导人讨论了这笔交易。“坦率地说，这对我们来说是一个非常好的谈判筹码，”他当时说。Mr. Trump has since held off approving the package of missiles, anti-drone weaponry and air-defense systems. His administration has also muted public references to Taiwan: Officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have conspicuously avoided mentioning Taiwan in speeches.此后，特朗普一直搁置批准包括导弹、反无人机武器和防空系统在内的一揽子计划。他的政府也低调处理了公开提及台湾的言论：包括国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在内的官员在讲话中都明显避免提及台湾。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯5月在北京。海格塞斯在演讲中一直避免提及台湾。For Beijing, Mr. Trump’s willingness to delay arms sales is already a gain. In Washington, Mr. Xi could hint at potential costs if Mr. Trump approves the sale, including more restrictions on Chinese rare earth exports. Mr. Xi could also signal that he might skip the Group of 20 summit in Miami in December, which Mr. Trump will preside over.对于北京来说，特朗普愿意推迟军售本身就已经是一个收获。在华盛顿，习近平可能会暗示如果特朗普批准军售将面临的潜在代价，包括中国对稀土出口施加更多限制。习近平还可能发出信号，表示他可能不会出席将于12月在迈阿密举行、由特朗普主持的二十国集团峰会。Mr. Trump, for his part, may want China to increase pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for global oil and gas supplies that Iran has effectively blocked since the war began in February.就特朗普而言，他可能希望中国加大对伊朗的压力，以促使伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。这条对于全球油气供应至关重要的水道自2月份战争爆发以来，实际上已被伊朗封锁。“I think in Beijing we saw the opening move in what will be a sophisticated play to get the Trump administration to reduce support for Taiwan,” said David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies U.S. relations with Taiwan and China. “Xi will use his meetings with Trump in Washington to continue to implement this strategy.”“我认为，在北京，我们目睹了一场精心策划的博弈的开局，其目的是促使特朗普政府减少对台湾的支持，”研究美国与台湾及中国大陆关系的外交关系委员会研究员戴维·萨克斯说。“习近平将利用在华盛顿与特朗普的会晤继续实施这一战略。”Taiwan Wonders Where It Stands With Trump台湾想知道自己在特朗普眼中的地位Delayed arms sales are a political headache for Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te. He has promoted increased military spending and purchases of American weapons, in part to meet the Trump administration’s own demands that partners invest more in their defense. Mr. Trump’s stalling could make it harder for Mr. Lai to defend his agenda.军售的推迟对台湾总统赖清德来说是一个政治上的头疼问题。他一直推动增加军费开支和购买美国武器，部分是为了满足特朗普政府提出的合作伙伴需增加自身国防投资的要求。特朗普的拖延可能会使赖清德更难捍卫其施政议程。Longer delays could drag on the island’s military goals, partly by pushing Taiwan further back in the line for orders of scarce military hardware, some experts said.一些专家表示，更长时间的拖延可能会拖累该岛的军事目标，部分原因是这会使台湾在稀缺军事装备的订购排队中进一步靠后。“Ultimately, it’s a game of the Chinese trying to prolong this process as long as possible, with the idea being that if China can make gains faster than Taiwan can acquire capabilities, then the balance continues to tilt in Beijing’s favor,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the National Security Council and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.“归根结底，这是中国人试图尽可能延长这一进程的博弈，其思路是，如果中国取得进展的速度比台湾获得武器能力的速度快，那么天平就会继续向有利于北京的方向倾斜，”前国家安全委员会中国事务主任、布鲁金斯学会高级研究员何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)说。Some experts said they expected Mr. Trump to keep holding off approval of any arms sales for Taiwan until at least late this year. Others said the green light for some weapons could come sooner. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are likely to raise pressure on the administration to approve the proposed arms sales after the summit, Mr. Sacks said.一些专家表示，他们预计特朗普至少要到今年晚些时候才会批准对台军售。也有人表示，部分武器的批准可能会来得更早。萨克斯表示，在峰会之后，国会的共和党人和民主党人都可能加大对政府的压力，要求其批准拟议的军售。The arms issue has highlighted Taiwan’s struggles to keep Mr. Trump onside. Taiwan does not have formal diplomatic relations with the United States, and Mr. Trump’s highly personalized, freewheeling style makes it more difficult for Taiwan to understand and shape U.S. decision-making, experts say.军售问题凸显了台湾在争取特朗普支持时所面临的困境。专家表示，台湾与美国没有正式外交关系，而特朗普高度个人化、随心所欲的风格使得台湾更难理解和影响美国的决策。“With an administration that is so top-down, I think that is hindering the Taiwanese ability to get a really good sense of what’s going on and the ability to help shape and influence that,” said Laura Rosenberger, a former Biden administration official who oversaw U.S. policies on China and Taiwan.“面对这样一个自上而下的政府，我认为这阻碍了台湾真正了解情况的能力，也阻碍了他们帮助塑造和影响决策的能力，”曾负责监督美国对华和对台政策的拜登政府官员劳拉·罗森伯格说。In his first term, Mr. Trump signed off on about $18 billion of arms sales to Taiwan, and hawkish members of his government focused on Beijing as a long-term threat. But in his second term, Mr. Trump has emphasized pragmatic ties with China, largely retreating from a trade war after Beijing strangled exports of rare earths that are crucial for smartphones and advanced technology.在第一任期内，特朗普批准了约180亿美元的对台军售，其政府中的鹰派成员将北京视为长期威胁。但在他的第二任期内，特朗普一直强调与中国建立务实的关系，在北京限制了对智能手机和先进技术至关重要的稀土出口之后，他在很大程度上从贸易战中退却了。去年，台湾总统赖清德在台湾台东县的一处军事基地与一架美国制造的战斗机合影。赖清德一直敦促台湾立法机构批准采购美国武器。Taiwan has sought to maintain influence by cultivating Mr. Trump’s inner circle, hiring lobbyists and arranging visits to the island for prominent supporters of the president.台湾一直试图通过拉拢特朗普的亲信、聘请游说者以及安排总统的知名支持者访问该岛等方式力图维持自身影响力。But some Taiwanese officials who have traveled to the United States have also been told by Trump administration officials to curtail their visits to research groups in Washington, said Mr. Hass at the Brookings Institution.但布鲁金斯学会的何瑞恩表示，一些前往美国的台湾官员也被特朗普政府的官员告知，要减少他们对华盛顿研究机构的访问。“All of this just betrays a clear preference by President Trump to ensure Taiwan does not become an obstacle to his ambitions as it relates to China,” he said.“所有这一切都暴露出特朗普总统的明显偏好，他希望确保台湾不会成为他实现与中国相关抱负的障碍，”他说。Military and Trade Ties Are Steady军事和贸易关系保持稳定Still, Taiwan’s security relationship with the United States remains robust. Officials and experts say working ties between government departments have remained steady, even deepened.尽管如此，台湾与美国的安全关系依然稳固。官员和专家表示，政府部门之间的工作联系保持着稳定，甚至有所深化。During Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military exercises last month, American advisers were more visible than in past years. At a recent briefing with reporters, Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, spoke coyly of growing numbers of “American English teachers,” a euphemism for the U.S. military advisers whose presence rankles Beijing.在上个月台湾举行的年度“汉光”军事演习期间，美国顾问比往年更加引人注目。在最近一次记者会上，台湾国防部部长顾立雄含蓄地谈到增多的“美语老师”——这是令北京感到恼火的美国军事顾问的委婉说法。“Our friends in the U.S. government understand how important continued arms sales are for Taiwan’s defense,” Chen Ming-chi, a deputy minister in Taiwan’s foreign ministry who handles relations with the United States, said in an interview.“在美国政府里的朋友明白继续对台军售对台湾国防有多重要，”负责处理对美关系的台湾外交部副部长陈明祺在接受采访时表示。Taiwan’s importance as an American trading partner has also grown sharply; this year it surpassed China as the third biggest source of U.S. imports, behind Mexico and Canada, according to U.S. figures. The bulk of those imports are semiconductors and other high-tech equipment sustaining the artificial intelligence boom in the United States. Taiwanese officials hope this growth will ultimately help entrench American support.台湾作为美国贸易伙伴的重要性也急剧上升；根据美国的数据，今年台湾已经超过中国成为仅次于墨西哥和加拿大的美国第三大进口来源地。这些进口的大部分是维持美国人工智能繁荣的半导体和其他高科技设备。台湾官员希望这种增长最终有助于巩固美国的支持。“We are probably the most cooperative partner in the whole world when it comes to tariffs and investment in the United States,” Mr. Chen said.“我们大概是全世界最愿意配合美国关税和投资要求的伙伴，”陈明祺说。8月，台湾澎湖举行实弹演习时的坦克射击。在今年的“汉光”年度演习中，美国顾问的身影比往年更为醒目。Mr. Trump often complains about Taiwan’s dominance in making advanced semiconductors, raising his long-held, and widely debunked, accusation that the island pilfered chip-making know-how from the United States. “They got stolen from us and they were brought to Taiwan,” Mr. Trump said last month in a radio interview.特朗普经常抱怨台湾在制造先进半导体方面的主导地位，重提了他长期以来所持，且已被广泛驳斥的指控，即台湾窃取了美国的芯片制造技术。“他们从我们这里偷走了技术，并把它们带到了台湾，”特朗普上个月在一次广播采访中说。But displacing Taiwan as a chief source of advanced chips is unlikely, even as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, the main global chip maker, expands production in the United States, experts say. TSMC has said it will spend $265 billion on its plants in Arizona. But Taiwan’s dense networks of suppliers and engineering talent remains difficult to replicate.但专家表示，尽管全球主要芯片制造商台积电正在美国扩大生产，但取代台湾作为先进芯片主要来源地的可能性不大。台积电曾表示将斥资2650亿美元建设其在亚利桑那州的工厂。但台湾密集的供应商网络和工程人才仍然难以复制。“Building structural interdependence with our most critical ally provides the ultimate assurance for our national security,” said Jeremy Chih-Cheng Chang, the director of economic security studies at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology in Taipei, which receives funding from the Taiwanese government.“与我们最关键的盟友建立结构性的相互依存关系为我们的国家安全提供了最终保障，”由台湾政府资助的台北民主、社会与科技潜力研究中心经济安保组组长张智程说。“Presidents come and go," said Mr. Chang, “but Silicon Valley and Wall Street remain constant.”“总统来来去去，”张智程说，“但硅谷与华尔街永远都在。”储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。