黄瑞黎2026年9月22日5月，中国同意在2028年前每年购买至少170亿美元的美国农产品。中国此前已另行承诺加大对美国大豆的采购。 KC McGinnis for The New York TimesWhen President Trump met with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in May, the United States announced that China had agreed to sharply increase its purchases of American agricultural products.特朗普总统今年5月在北京与中国领导人习近平会晤时，美国宣布，中国已同意大幅增加对美国农产品的采购。The pledge, one of China’s major commitments after the high-profile meeting, appeared to offer relief to U.S. farmers battered by the trade war between the two countries.这一承诺是那次备受瞩目的会晤后中国作出的主要承诺之一，看起来有望让饱受两国贸易战冲击的美国农民松一口气。Four months later, there is little sign of a broad Chinese buying spree.四个月过去了，却几乎看不到中国大举采购的迹象。The White House announced in May that China would buy at least $17 billion a year of U.S. farm goods through 2028, with the target prorated for 2026. Soybeans were not included: China had already vowed separately to step up purchases from American farmers.白宫5月宣布，到2028年，中国每年将购买至少170亿美元的美国农产品，2026年的目标则按全年比例折算。大豆不包括在内：中国此前已经另行承诺增加从美国农民手中采购大豆。Yet in the first seven months of 2026, China bought only $3.9 billion of U.S. agricultural products, excluding soybeans, according to the most recent Agriculture Department data. The amount was only slightly more than during the same period last year, when sales were at a six-year low as the two countries imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on each other.然而，根据美国农业部最新数据，2026年前七个月，中国仅购买了39亿美元的美国农产品（不包括大豆）。这一数字仅略高于去年同期，而当时两国相互加征报复性关税，相关销售额跌至六年来最低水平。“They’re not keeping that promise and it hasn’t been talked about,” said Ishan Bhanu, the lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler, which tracks trade flows.“他们没有兑现那个承诺，而且这件事也一直没人提，”贸易流向追踪机构Kpler的首席农产品分析师伊尚·巴努说。The sluggish pace of China’s purchases could become a point of contention when Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi meet again at a summit this week. During his first term, Mr. Trump accused Beijing of “letting us down” by reneging on pledges to buy American agricultural products and called its failure to buy soybeans an “economically hostile” act.中国采购进展缓慢可能成为特朗普与习近平本周再次举行峰会时的一个争议点。在第一个总统任期内，特朗普曾指责北京背弃了购买美国农产品的承诺，“让我们失望”，并称中国不购买大豆是“经济上的敌对”行为。随着特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平的会晤临近，中国加大了对美国大豆的采购。The figures reveal a sharp divide in the composition of Beijing’s trade with American farmers. It is on track to fulfill its soybean pledge, while demand for other U.S. farm products remains soft.数据显示，北京与美国农民之间的贸易构成存在明显分化。中国有望兑现大豆采购承诺，但对美国其他农产品的需求依然疲软。That uneven approach reflects China’s dual strategy in dealing with Mr. Trump, analysts say. Beijing wants to show that it is making a good-faith effort to improve relations with the president, who is eager to support farmers ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. But it also does not want to surrender its leverage or appear to be making unilateral concessions to the United States.分析人士说，这种不均衡的做法反映了中国应对特朗普的双重策略。北京想表明，它正在真诚努力改善与这位总统的关系，随着中期选举临近，特朗普急于为农民提供支持。但中国也不想放弃自己的筹码，或显得在单方面向美国让步。“The U.S. may have a legitimate view that China is slow-walking the implementation of their May 14 commitments,” said Han Lin, the China country director for The Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm based in Washington.“美国或许有合理理由认为，中国正在拖延履行5月14日作出的承诺，”总部位于华盛顿的战略咨询公司亚洲集团中国区负责人林汉说。Mr. Lin said the approach stems from Beijing’s underlying distrust of Mr. Trump, even as Chinese officials view him as “certainly more manageable” than more hawkish officials in his administration.林汉说，这种做法源于北京对特朗普的深层不信任，尽管中国官员认为，与他政府中更为鹰派的官员相比，特朗普“无疑更容易打交道”。“They understand a large aspect of getting to substantive discussions with the U.S. is paying attention to the performative aspects and making sure Trump looks good,” he said.“他们明白，要与美国展开实质性讨论，很大程度上也得顾及表面上的功夫，确保特朗普脸上有光，”他说。China has never confirmed the $17 billion figure, saying only that it had “set indicative targets for expanding two-way agricultural trade.”中国从未确认170亿美元这个数字，只称将“设定扩大农产品双向贸易目标”。Kate Lair, assistant U.S. trade representative for public and media affairs, referred to a May fact sheet from the White House that said the commitment would be prorated for this year. China’s commerce ministry and foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.美国贸易代表办公室负责公共和媒体事务的助理贸易代表凯特·莱尔提到了白宫5月发布的一份情况说明，其中称今年的承诺额度将按全年比例折算。中国商务部和外交部没有回应置评请求。But even with the prorated target, Beijing’s current pace of buying means it will have to accelerate spending significantly over the rest of the year.但即便按比例折算，北京目前的采购速度也意味着它必须在今年剩余时间里大幅加快支出。For now, soybeans appear to be the only sector seeing a significant boost.目前看来，大豆是唯一采购量显著增加的领域。After Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi met last October, China bought 12.4 million tons of soybeans from the United States in 2025, according to Jim Sutter, the chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. So far this year, China has made additional purchases amounting to about half of the 25-million-ton, full-year commitment that Washington said was promised.美国大豆出口协会首席执行官吉姆·萨特说，特朗普和中国领导人去年10月会晤后，中国在2025年从美国购买了1240万吨大豆。今年迄今为止，中国又进行了更多采购，总量约为华盛顿所称中国承诺的全年2500万吨采购量的一半。The purchases put the industry “sort of back on track,” Mr. Sutter said.萨特说，这些采购使该行业“某种程度上重回正轨”。爱荷华州波尔克城一座农场粮仓内的玉米。今年1月至7月，美国对华玉米销售额降至约690万美元，而2022年为52亿美元，降幅巨大。Soybean prices are now trading near a three-year high, hovering around $13 a bushel, driven in part by Chinese demand.目前大豆价格徘徊在每蒲式耳13美元左右，接近三年来的高点，其中一个推动因素就是中国的需求。That is a far cry from Mr. Trump’s first term, when China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. agricultural exports in retaliation for American tariffs on Chinese imports. China is the largest foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans and its purchases plunged.这与特朗普第一个任期时的情况大不相同。当时，中国为报复美国对中国进口商品加征关税，对美国农产品加征25%的关税。中国是美国大豆最大的海外买家，此后采购量骤降。The consequences for American farmers were severe. Storage bins filled up, crops risked rotting and the Trump administration ultimately stepped in with a $23 billion bailout program for farmers. The dispute also accelerated Beijing’s shift toward purchasing soybeans from Brazil, another major producer.这给美国农民造成了严重后果。储粮仓爆满，农作物面临腐烂风险，特朗普政府最终出手，推出了一项230亿美元的农民救助计划。这场争端也加速了北京转向从另一个主要生产国巴西采购大豆。In recent weeks, as the meeting between the two leaders drew closer, China has sped up its purchases.最近几周，随着两位领导人会晤临近，中国加快了采购速度。In August, Sinograin, the state-owned enterprise that manages China’s grain reserves, began stepping up its orders of U.S. soybeans, according to Mr. Bhanu, the Kpler analyst. Usually, purchases happen earlier in the year, he said, suggesting that Beijing had initially been uncertain about whether to fulfill its commitments.Kpler分析师巴努说，8月，管理中国粮食储备的国有企业中储粮开始增加美国大豆订单。他说，通常采购会在一年中更早的时候进行，这表明北京最初对于是否兑现承诺可能并未拿定主意。Mr. Bhanu said that Sinograin’s role was also telling.巴努说，中储粮在其中发挥的作用也很能说明问题。“It shows that it’s a geopolitical deal,” he said. Sinograin did not respond to a request for comment.“这表明这是一笔地缘政治交易，”他说。中储粮没有回应置评请求。China has other reasons to buy American soybeans. Brazil’s soybean inventories have tightened significantly, potentially giving Beijing an incentive to seek an alternative supply source if the Brazilian crop disappoints.中国购买美国大豆还有其他原因。巴西的大豆库存已经明显趋紧，如果巴西大豆收成不及预期，可能促使北京寻找替代供应来源。But that commercial logic does not apply as clearly to other American agricultural products.但这种商业逻辑在其他美国农产品上就没有那么明显了。得克萨斯州阿马里洛郊外的一片高粱地。美国对华高粱销售一直不温不火。Sorghum, for example, was among the products Mr. Trump said last October that China would buy in “massive amounts.” Yet sales have been relatively tepid.例如，特朗普去年10月曾表示，中国将“大量”采购高粱。然而实际销售相对温吞。Tim Lust, chief executive officer of the National Sorghum Producers, a group representing the American sorghum industry, said China had bought about 20 percent less sorghum from the United States than historical averages.代表美国高粱行业的全国高粱生产者协会首席执行官蒂姆·拉斯特说，中国从美国购买的高粱比历史平均水平少了约20%。“All agriculture is struggling right now. From a profitability standpoint, it’s a tough situation,” Mr. Lust said. “It is important for us to get back to a managed trade situation and be able to know that we have consistency.”“现在整个农业都在挣扎。从盈利角度看，形势很艰难，”勒斯特说。“对我们来说，重要的是要恢复到一种受管控的贸易状态，能够确保我们拥有一种稳定性。”For corn, the situation is bleak. Corn sales to China amounted to about $6.9 million from January to July this year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That is a fraction of the sales in 2022, when China bought $5.2 billion of the crop.玉米的情况则十分惨淡。美国农业部数据显示，今年1月至7月，美国对华玉米销售额约为690万美元。这与2022年相比只是一个零头，当年中国购买了价值52亿美元的美国玉米。Analysts say the sales of wheat, cotton, beef and pork also remain well below recent levels.分析人士说，小麦、棉花、牛肉和猪肉的对华销售也仍远低于近年的水平。China also faces structural obstacles to buying more American agricultural products. An additional 10 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. goods remains in place, while weakness in the Chinese economy has weighed on demand.中国要增加购买美国农产品还面临结构性障碍。中国对美国商品额外加征的10%关税仍然有效，而中国经济疲软也抑制了需求。From a purely commercial standpoint, buying significantly more U.S. agricultural goods “doesn’t really make sense for China,” said Fred Gale, an expert on China’s agricultural markets and a former economist at the U.S. Agriculture Department.中国农业市场专家、美国农业部前经济学家弗雷德·盖尔说，单纯从商业角度来看，大幅增加购买美国农产品“对中国来说其实并不划算”。“For most Chinese private-sector buyers, it’s not really feasible to buy American products,” Mr. Gale said. “State-owned companies aren’t coming in to buy large amounts of grain or pork. It’s hard to see exactly what China has in mind, whether they actually intend to meet those objectives.”“对大多数中国民营部门的买家来说，购买美国产品实际上并不可行，”盖尔说。“国有企业也不会进场大量购买粮食或猪肉。很难看出中国到底怎么想，他们是否真的打算实现那些目标。”Li You对本文有报道贡献。黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》东南亚分社社长，负责该地区11个国家的报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site