My 3-Phase Bitcoin Bear Market Timing ModelBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDMarketWarfareThis is my Bitcoin Timing Model, designed to break the bear market cycle into three distinct phases. The model is based on recurring timing relationships I’ve observed across previous Bitcoin cycles and the broader macro environment. Phase 1 — Initial breakdown / transition into the bear market Phase 2 — Continuation and consolidation as the cycle develops Phase 3 — Final stage of the bear market, where I watch for the last major leg down and eventual cycle low One of the more interesting confirmations is oil, shown in blue on the chart. Across the previous cycles shown here, oil has followed a very similar three-phase timing structure. As Bitcoin moves into Phase 3, oil has historically weakened as well, often making another move lower during the same general window. That relationship is showing up again in the current cycle. Oil is beginning to roll over, and if the historical pattern continues, I’ll be watching for further downside in oil during Phase 3 alongside Bitcoin’s potential final leg lower. Based on the current structure of my model, October–November is the primary window I’m watching for Phase 3. This is a timing model, not a price-target model. I’m not trying to predict the exact bottom. I’m trying to identify the part of the cycle where the final downside move and a major cyclical low have historically developed. Time > Price.