XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – September 27, 2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX H4 Timeframe Momentum H4 momentum is preparing to turn bearish, so on Monday we may see a decline lasting around 3–5 H4 candles. Wave Structure The 4234 level is the invalidation zone for Wave 1 of a potential new bullish trend. As long as price does not break below this level and create a new low, the bullish structure remains valid. However, as price approaches 4234, the risk of invalidation is increasing. The recent decline formed an ABC structure, followed by a recovery toward 4316 — the H4 FVG mentioned in my previous plan. Price has now rebalanced this area. At this stage, identifying the exact wave structure is difficult. The key point is that price may be approaching the final stage of the correction. A strong bullish move would be the first indication that a new trend may have started. Therefore, we will combine SMC structure with Elliott Wave to look for confirmation. SMC Structure The long-term LTH and LTL levels (marked in blue) are still forming lower highs and lower lows. Therefore, the long-term structure has not yet confirmed a bullish trend. Similarly, the intermediate-term ITH and ITL levels (marked in black) are also moving lower. Price has broken above the short-term high at 4305, but the move left a wick rather than showing clear displacement. Price has also reached and rebalanced the internal liquidity area around the FVG, so there is still a high probability of a new ITL forming. Importantly, liquidity around 4223 is located inside a D1 FVG, which may continue to attract price lower for a liquidity sweep. Therefore, the next ITL could form below 4223. Trading Scenarios At this stage, we move to the lower timeframes and wait for an FVG as confirmation. BUY: If a bullish FVG forms between the current price and the ITH at 4372, the minimum requirement is a close above 4305. We can then wait for price to retrace and rebalance the FVG to look for a BUY. SELL: If a bearish FVG forms, especially with price closing below 4256, we can wait for a retracement into the FVG to look for a SELL, with the nearest target around 4234.