Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a modest lead over the Ontario Liberals, while a new survey suggests the race to lead the Liberal Party remains highly fluid, with voter preferences shifting significantly once candidates are introduced to respondents.A new Ontario Political Tracker from Liaison Strategies found the Progressive Conservatives at 40 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals. The Ontario NDP sits at 21 per cent, while other parties garnered three per cent support and the Green Party registered two per cent.The poll suggests the governing PCs have largely maintained the gains they posted in August, despite continued dissatisfaction among Ontarians about the province’s direction.“The PCs have held on to their August recovery,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies. “They are at 40 per cent, up one point, while the Liberals are at 34 per cent, down one, and the NDP is at 21 per cent, up one. Those are small changes. The more important finding is that last month’s PC rebound has not disappeared.”The survey found Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating has continued to improve, rising to 38 per cent, up from 36 per cent in August and 24 per cent in July. His disapproval rating fell to 59 per cent, down from 61 per cent a month earlier.While Ford’s numbers have rebounded, broader public sentiment remains negative. Seven in 10 respondents said Ontario is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 29 per cent who believe the province is moving in the right direction.“Ford has recovered considerable ground since July, but a majority still disapprove,” Valentin said. “The PCs lead while most Ontarians remain unhappy with where the province is headed.”Liberal MP Navdeep Bains delivers a farewell speech in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Tuesday, June 15, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle.Liberal leadership contest remains unsettledThe survey also examined potential contenders in the Ontario Liberal leadership race and found low public awareness continues to define the contest.Before respondents were provided with short descriptions of five prospective leadership candidates, a majority of Ontarians either did not know who they preferred or rejected all candidates presented.At first glance, former federal cabinet minister Navdeep Bains led with 12 per cent support. He was followed by Lee Fairclough at six per cent, Stephanie Bowman at five per cent, Eric Lombardi at three per cent, and Dylan Marando at two per cent. More notably, 51 per cent were unsure and another 22 per cent selected none of the options.Those numbers changed dramatically after respondents were given brief descriptions of each candidate’s background.Fairclough surged to 23 per cent, narrowly ahead of Bains at 20 per cent. Bowman rose to 13 per cent, Lombardi to 10 per cent, and Marando to six per cent. The proportion of undecided respondents dropped sharply to 14 per cent, while 15 per cent selected none of the candidates.“Fairclough’s 17-point increase is the largest, but the broader lesson is that giving voters information changes the picture considerably,” Valentin said.He cautioned, however, that the results should not be interpreted as a forecast of the eventual leadership outcome.“These are responses to the particular descriptions read in the survey, not a forecast of the leadership result,” Valentin said. “We surveyed Ontarians, not a verified electorate of Liberal Party members.”Different dynamics among Liberal votersWhile Fairclough emerged as the strongest performer among Ontarians overall after hearing candidate introductions, current Liberal supporters remained more inclined toward Bains.Among self-identified Liberal voters, Bains led the initial ballot test with 25 per cent, compared with 11 per cent for Fairclough. Following the candidate descriptions, Bains expanded his lead to 32 per cent, while Fairclough rose to 26 per cent.Bowman received 15 per cent support among Liberal voters after introductions, followed by Lombardi at 10 per cent and Marando at five per cent.“The distinction matters because current Liberal voters give a different answer,” Valentin said. “Bains retains the advantage among the party’s existing voters even though Fairclough records the highest share provincewide.”The survey also found Fairclough appeared to resonate more strongly with voters outside the Liberal base.Among NDP supporters, Fairclough attracted 28 per cent support after introductions, compared with 16 per cent for Bains. Among undecided provincial voters, Fairclough stood at 26 per cent, while Bains registered 11 per cent.Valentin said the findings highlight a key challenge facing the next Liberal leader.“Appealing to the party’s current supporters and appealing beyond them are not necessarily the same task,” he said.Opportunity exists, but challenges remainThe poll found there may be growth potential for the Liberals beyond their current support levels.Thirty-one per cent of respondents said they would definitely consider voting Liberal, while another 27 per cent said they would possibly consider doing so. Thirty-six per cent ruled out supporting the party and seven per cent were unsure.According to Valentin, that means 58 per cent of Ontarians remain at least open to voting Liberal, though he stressed that figure should not be confused with actual voting intentions.The opportunity appears greatest among NDP supporters. Eighteen per cent of NDP voters said they would definitely consider voting Liberal and another 43 per cent said they possibly would. Among PC voters, only four per cent said they would definitely consider a Liberal vote, while 21 per cent said they possibly would.“The next Liberal leader will inherit a party that is competitive without being ahead,” Valentin said. “The challenge is to turn consideration into a vote.”Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,600 Ontarians between Sept. 15 and Sept. 19, 2026, using interactive voice response technology. Respondents were contacted through random digit dialing on landline and cellular phone networks. Results were weighted according to 2021 Census data.