Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The dollar begins the session with an advantage: Fed representatives have again emphasized the resilience of inflationary pressures, and the market allows for another rate hike. For EURUSD today, it is more important whether preliminary data on business activity in the eurozone will confirm the economy's ability to withstand high energy prices. The recent ECB rate hike supports the euro through yield expectations. However, deteriorating consumer sentiment shows the other side of the energy shock: rising expenses could weaken demand. Until business activity data are published, there is no basis to consider this risk overcome. The dollar factor remains stronger than local support for the euro within the current session. With ongoing Fed expectations, the base scenario assumes further moderate decline in EURUSD. Strong eurozone indicators could change this assessment. Trading idea: SELL 1.14270, SL 1.14520, TP 1.13670