A series of breaks has kept buyers in controlUSDCAD has climbed from 1.3758 on September 8 to a high of 1.4094 today. That is a gain of 336 pips in a relatively short period, and the technical story has been consistent along the way.The price broke above its 200-day moving average at 1.3839, then its 100-day moving average, currently at 1.39565. It also moved through the 50% midpoint of the decline from the June 24 high at 1.39894 and, yesterday, the 61.8% retracement of that same decline at 1.40503.For traders, those levels provide a way to measure the strength of the move. Breaking a level shows that buyers were willing to push the price higher. Staying above it is the next test. When a market repeatedly breaks resistance and then holds above it on a pullback, buyers have more evidence that the trend is intact.The 61.8% level held todayToday’s low was 1.4058, above the 61.8% retracement at 1.40503. Buyers leaned against that area, and the price resumed its move higher.The next break came at 1.4080. That level corresponded with the swing highs from August 4 and August 5, which were also the highs for August. Breaking above a prior high gets traders’ attention because it takes the price into an area where buyers and sellers have not recently traded. It does not guarantee another move higher, but it does give buyers the opportunity to extend the trend.The question now is whether 1.4080 can hold as support. If it does, the former ceiling becomes a floor, and that would be the best case scenario for buyers in the short term. If the price slips back below it, the breakout will have lost some momentum, and traders will look to the next levels to see whether buyers step in again.Where would sellers start to make progress?Below 1.4080, a rising channel trendline cuts across near 1.4060. Because the line is rising, its value will change over time. The 61.8% retracement at 1.40503 sits just below it.A move below those levels would give sellers some moral victories. It would tell us that buyers were unable to hold the August highs and that the latest retracement break had failed. Still, the broader short-term trend would have another important test below.That test is the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.40240. USDCAD has traded well above it since breaking higher on September 9. In a trending market, a moving average can help traders distinguish a normal pullback from a more meaningful change in direction. As long as the price remains above the 100-hour moving average, buyers can argue that they still control the short-term trend. A move below it would shift more of the bias toward sellers.This is why I watch the levels in steps. A dip below 1.4080 would be a warning. A move below 1.4060 and 1.40503 would add to that warning. A break of the 100-hour moving average would be a more significant change in the technical picture.The next upside targetOn the topside, the upper channel trendline points toward the next swing area at 1.41297–1.41488. That is the next target for buyers if the price can stay above 1.4080.If USDCAD can move above that swing area, it would enter the broader consolidation area that reached 1.42474 on June 24. That June high was the highest level since April 8, 2025.The buyers have done the work to get USDCAD here. They broke the moving averages, cleared the retracement levels and have now pushed above the August highs. The next job is to stay above the levels they just broke. Hold above 1.4080, and the focus remains on 1.41297–1.41488. Fall back below it, and the rising channel line, the 61.8% retracement and ultimately the 100-hour moving average will tell us whether sellers are beginning to take back control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.