AUS200: can a weak first 15 minutes recover?Australia 200TRADENATIONSB:AUS200Marto84With an overnight AUS200 futures dislocation of -80 points or worse and a prior-day AUS200 first hour of -15 points or worse, what did the next ASX session do? The setup matched 15 dates. One date (29 November 2021) has no first-15-minute value, so the comparable outcome sample is 14: • First 15 minutes (10:00–10:15 close vs 10am): 13/14 negative; mean -15.14 points. • First hour (11am vs 10am): 10/14 negative; mean -18.79 points. • ASX session (4pm vs 10am): 7/14 positive and 7/14 negative; mean +3.71 points. Of the 13 cases with a negative first 15 minutes, 6 later finished the ASX session positive. In this selected sample, early weakness was common, while the full-session result was evenly split. Filters (AND): • AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ -80 points • AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) ≤ -15 points The chart uses Trade Nation AUS200, 15-minute bars, with a provisional reference of 8,661.6 observed at 07:53 Brisbane on 24 September. The actual 10am Sydney session open was not yet available. Historical closing moves are translated to this reference; the levels do not show intraday lows/highs or prove that price touched them. These are descriptive results from a small selected historical sample, not a forecast or trading signal.