Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 4.3% to $0.0910 on Bitstamp by 08:31 UTC on Monday, September 21. The gain lifted the meme coin back above $0.09 and out of the chart pattern that had capped it since the August rally.There was no Dogecoin-specific news behind the gain. DOGE followed Bitcoin, which traded near $82,400 at a 90-day high, according to CoinGecko data at 08:34 UTC.What Is Driving the Crypto Rally?On Friday, Bitcoin topped $80,000 and DOGE gained 7%, helped by regulatory hopes and cooler Treasury yields.Pantera Capital's Dan Morehead argued that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were delivering regulatory clarity without Congress.[#highlighted-links#]Crypto stocks moved harder than the coins. Coinbase shares jumped about 12% on Friday to a 30-day high, and Strategy and Robinhood also rallied, according to Yahoo Finance data.On Monday, Dogecoin outpaced the market leader. Bitcoin gained about 1.3% from its previous close, a third of the DOGE move, and the meme coin added a technical signal of its own.Will Dogecoin Go Back Up to 12 Cents?My daily chart shows DOGE breaking out of a bull flag that formed after the late-August jump from about $0.068 to $0.10. The upper edge of that flag is the downtrend line drawn from the January 2026 peak near $0.156, which price crossed today.If the breakout holds, I see room for a move to about $0.1157, the area of the May highs. That is roughly 27% above Monday's price and would take DOGE close to 12 cents for the first time since May.The 200-day exponential moving average stands at $0.0929 and horizontal resistance is at $0.0950. DOGE is still trading below both.What Happened to My July Dogecoin Call?In July, I expected the opposite. My July 13 analysis set a target of $0.048 after DOGE broke a support line that had held since July 2024.DOGE instead bottomed near $0.068 in August and then closed above $0.0806, the first level I named as a warning for the bearish view. The second condition, a weekly close above $0.1434, is still far away.What Would Stop the Dogecoin Rally?The weak spot is that the move leans on Bitcoin. Without its own catalyst, DOGE is exposed to any pullback in the wider crypto market.For my breakout scenario, the decisive level is $0.0884. A daily close back below it would put DOGE back inside the flag and bring $0.0800 and the August low near $0.0684 back into view.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.