USD/JPY: Dollar-Yen Rebuilds Momentum, but 157.40 Is the First SUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYNovaque_ResearchUSD/JPY offers one of the clearest examples of monetary-policy divergence in the current market, although intervention risk remains unusually important. The pair trades around 156.89 after a strong recovery from the September decline. The four-hour chart shows price back above the short- and medium-term EMA structure. MACD has moved firmly positive, and momentum has improved substantially from the lows. Monthly anchored VWAP sits around 155.55, leaving price comfortably above September's average traded level. That is constructive. The problem lies immediately overhead. The monthly upper VWAP area sits around 157.39, while the volume profile shows substantial participation between approximately 157.0 and 158.9. The four-hour 200-period moving average also sits close to this region. USD/JPY is consequently entering an area where the strength of the recovery will be tested. The lower timeframes favour buying weakness The one-hour chart shows a recent rejection from around 157.4, but the pullback has not damaged the emerging uptrend. On the 15-minute chart, price remains above the 200-period EMA and the recent decline has reset momentum from overbought conditions. That makes a pullback entry preferable to chasing price directly beneath resistance. Trading thesis Preferred bias: bullish on a defended pullback Entry zone: 156.40-156.65 Stop loss: 155.90 TP1: 157.40 TP2: 158.88 TP3: 160.25 The entry zone sits close to the rising intraday structure and leaves room for a retest without requiring price to break immediately through major resistance. TP1 is the critical test. The 157.40 region contains both technical resistance and the upper monthly VWAP area. Acceptance above it would materially improve the case for continuation. The second target around 158.88 corresponds with the next major volume and structural zone visible on the higher timeframe. Beyond that, 160.25 becomes a logical extension if US yields remain elevated and the market continues to price a wide US-Japan rate differential. The macro argument supports the trade, but it also creates its largest risk. Japanese authorities have demonstrated sensitivity to rapid yen depreciation. Intervention rhetoric, rate checks or an unexpected shift in Bank of Japan communication could produce a much faster reversal than ordinary technical analysis would imply. For that reason, USD/JPY remains a technically constructive trade rather than an unrestricted momentum trade.