Key TakeawaysStifel maintains a Buy rating on Micron (MU) with a $1,500 target; shares currently trade around $1,015The stock has surged 266% year-to-date in 2026 and posted a 525% gain over the past 12 monthsCompany guidance points to approximately $50B in Q4 revenue and roughly $31 non-GAAP EPS; Stifel anticipates outperformanceNext-generation HBM4 pricing per bit could see a 100% increase, potentially expanding profit marginsAnalyst consensus is overwhelmingly positive: 29 out of 30 analysts assign a Strong Buy rating with a mean price target of $1,564As Micron prepares to unveil its fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30 after market close, investor expectations are running high. The semiconductor giant’s shares have already posted a remarkable 266% advance in 2026, currently hovering near $1,015—a staggering 525% increase from where they stood twelve months ago.Micron Technology, Inc., MUStifel analyst Brian Chin, who ranks among the top 1% of Wall Street equity researchers, anticipates the company will exceed its own projections. His models point to Q4 revenue reaching $50.78 billion with non-GAAP earnings per share hitting $32—both figures surpassing Micron’s internal guidance of approximately $50B in sales and around $31 in EPS.The company has set its gross margin guidance at roughly 86% for the period. Chin takes a slightly more optimistic stance, forecasting 87% for Q4 and projecting an expansion to 88.2% in the November quarter.Looking ahead to the fiscal first quarter concluding in November, Chin models revenue advancing to $56.4 billion, representing a sequential increase of 11%. According to his analysis, this expansion will stem primarily from favorable pricing dynamics rather than volume shipment increases.Supply Bottlenecks Driving the NarrativeThe dominant theme surrounding this earnings release centers on supply constraints. Chin maintains that the memory sector’s current upcycle remains underestimated by the wider investment community, and industry metrics support this assessment.DRAM bit shipment expansion is projected to decelerate to a 15%-20% range in calendar 2027, down from the mid-to-high 20% growth witnessed in 2026. This slowdown stems from extended timelines for new cleanroom infrastructure to become operational and increasingly limited equipment availability.According to Chin’s calculations, DRAM bit supply would need to accelerate to 40-50% or higher in 2027 merely to address the existing supply deficit. Such substantial shortfalls typically sustain elevated pricing environments for extended periods.A portion of the revenue expansion is also influenced by supply contracts incorporating collar-based pricing mechanisms, which may temper the magnitude of positive earnings surprises relative to recent reporting periods.HBM4 Technology Emerges as Potential CatalystBeyond conventional DRAM products, HBM4 represents a critical factor to monitor. Chin projects that HBM4 pricing per bit will approximately double, with contract negotiations for next-generation offerings nearing completion.This development could deliver substantial margin enhancement during Micron’s fiscal second quarter, which concludes in February 2026.The company has also disclosed plans for a $10 billion capital investment in a new research and development campus in Boise, Idaho, designated as Micron Research Labs, with construction planned over the coming decade.In legal developments, Micron faced a setback in its patent dispute with Netlist, as an appeals court sided against the company’s position.TD Cowen separately maintains a Buy recommendation on MU with a $1,600 price objective. Meanwhile, Citi analysts forecast an intensifying memory supply shortage extending through 2031, fueled by artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout.Among the 30 analysts tracking MU, 29 assign it a Buy rating. The consensus price target stands at $1,564, implying approximately 50% appreciation potential from current trading levels.The post Micron (MU) Stock Surges 525% in 12 Months: What to Expect from Q4 Earnings appeared first on Blockonomi.