KEITH BRADSHER2026年9月26日特朗普总统周四与中国领导人习近平举行会晤。中美贸易摩擦一度似乎对中国构成重大威胁，如今已有所缓和。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesFor China and its top leader, Xi Jinping, the biggest prize from a summit in Washington, notably free from confrontation, may be simple: time.对于中国及其最高领导人习近平而言，这场在华盛顿举行、显著缺乏对抗色彩的峰会带来的最大收获或许很简单：时间。Time to cope with a housing market crash that has wiped away the savings of tens of millions of Chinese families. Time to deal with local governments running short of money as land-use revenue collapses. Time to make China even less vulnerable to economic pressure from the United States and other industrialized countries.这是一段应对房市崩盘的时间，这场危局已蒸发了数以千万计中国家庭的积蓄；这是一段理顺地方财政的时间，随着土地出让收入锐减，地方政府普遍面临资金匮乏；这也是一段让中国进一步提升抗压能力的时间，使其面对美国及其他工业化国家的经济施压时不再脆弱。And perhaps most consequentially, time to prepare for the once-in-five-years Communist Party national congress next autumn, which will choose a new slate of top leaders to work under Mr. Xi.而最具深远意义的是为明年秋季召开的五年一度的中共全国代表大会做准备。届时大会将产生新一届高层领导集团，在习近平的领导下开展工作。“By trying to stabilize relations with the U.S., China can better concentrate on its own priorities,” said Wu Xinbo, a leading American studies scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai.上海复旦大学知名美国问题学者吴心伯表示：“通过力求稳定对美关系，中国能够将精力更好地集中于国内的核心议题。”When President Trump returned to office last year, Beijing had little reason to expect such breathing room.去年特朗普刚刚重返白宫的时候，北京恐怕不会奢望能获得如此宝贵的喘息空间。Mr. Trump had campaigned on imposing very steep tariffs on imports from China as part of an effort to rebuild America’s industrial base. Three months after taking office, he briefly raised tariffs to 145 percent, while his administration imposed stringent new restrictions on technology trade with China.在竞选期间，特朗普曾誓言对中国进口商品加征极高关税，以期重塑美国的工业基础。就职仅三个月后，他一度将关税增至145%，同时其政府还实施了新一轮严苛的对华技术贸易限制。But the confrontation did not unfold the way Beijing had initially feared.然而，这场正面交锋并未向北京最初担忧的方向演变。China demonstrated that it had economic weapons of its own, most importantly its dominance of rare-earth metals and magnets essential to the production of cars, electronics and weapons.中国展现出了自身掌握的经济反制手段，其中最为关键的是其对汽车、电子产品及武器制造不可或缺的稀土金属与磁体的主导地位。After Beijing restricted rare-earth exports to the United States, Washington backed away from some of its most aggressive measures. Tariffs fell from their peaks, some export controls were eased, and the two governments began negotiating a series of temporary truces.在北京收紧对美稀土出口后，华盛顿撤回了部分最为激进的举措。关税自高位回落，部分出口管制得到松绑，两国政府开始就一系列临时休战展开谈判。Economic brinkmanship continues between the two countries, especially in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and robotics. But the Trump administration has shifted from the extraordinary escalation of its first months to a less confrontational relationship in which China has shown that it, too, can inflict considerable pain on the American economy.两国间的经济边缘博弈仍在延续，特别是在人工智能与机器人等新兴产业领域。不过，特朗普政府已从执政初期不同寻常的局势升级策略转向了一种对抗性较低的相处模式；在这种模式下，中国同样证明了自身具备给美国经济造成重创的能力。Many China experts in the United States now see the Trump administration as pursuing a less combative policy toward Beijing than the posture favored by many Democratic and Republican leaders.如今，许多美国国内的中国问题专家认为，特朗普政府对北京采取的政策比许多民主党和共和党领袖所主张的立场更具妥协色彩。“I see the current policy as far too weak and contrary to the views of senior leaders in both parties,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who served as ambassador to China under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and previously held senior posts elsewhere under President George W. Bush.曾在小约瑟夫·R·拜登政府担任驻华大使、并在小布什政府中身兼要职的R·尼古拉斯·伯恩斯指出：“在我看来，当前的政策显得过于软弱，且与两党资深领导人的共识背道而驰。”Trade frictions with the United States have consequently receded as an immediate concern in China after seeming to pose a severe threat early in Mr. Trump’s second term. Beijing, however, has not slowed in its longstanding push to become less dependent on the rest of the world for technology or energy.因此，在特朗普第二任期初期，中美贸易摩擦一度对中国构成严重威胁，但如今已不再是北京亟待解决的燃眉之急。然而，北京并未放慢技术与能源对外依赖度这一既定战略的步伐。“They want time and stability because it helps them build a more resilient, more self-reliant economy,” said Evan Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a former senior Asia director on the National Security Council under President Barack Obama. “It gives them time to reduce their exposure to the U.S.”乔治城大学教授、奥巴马政府国家安全委员会前亚洲事务高级主任麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)分析道：“他们渴望赢得时间和稳定，因为这有助于他们打造一个更有韧性、更自给自足的经济体系。这为他们减少对美风险敞口争取了时间。”For two decades, Beijing has pursued a consistent policy of replacing high-tech imports with domestic production. That push has helped China become a dominant producer of everything from batteries and solar panels to telecommunications equipment and electric vehicles. It has also made China less vulnerable to foreign economic pressure while leaving other industrialized countries increasingly dependent on Chinese supplies of key raw materials or manufactured goods.二十年来，北京始终贯彻以本土生产替代高科技进口的坚定政策。这一政策的推行助力中国成为了从电池、太阳能电池板到电信设备、电动汽车等众多领域的主导生产国。这不仅降低了中国面对外部经济施压时的脆弱性，也让其他工业化国家日益依赖中国关键原材料与工业品的供给。Beijing has pursued a similar strategy of energy self-reliance. Its enormous investments in electric vehicles, wind and solar power, as well as its national electricity grid, have reduced its dependence on imported fossil fuels, helping insulate the economy from high oil prices and supply shortages caused by the war in Iran.在能源自给自足方面，北京同样采取了类似的战略。其在电动汽车、风电与光伏以及国家电网构建上的巨额投入，降低了对进口化石燃料的依赖，帮助本国经济躲过了因伊朗战争引起的高油价与能源短缺冲击。China is also using the lull in trade tensions productively.中国亦在高效利用贸易局势缓和带来的喘息之机。Its overall trade surplus has surged since Mr. Trump returned to office and is on course to match or surpass last year’s record of roughly $1.2 trillion. Chinese exporters have expanded rapidly into Southeast Asia, Latin America and other markets, reducing their direct dependence on the United States even as many goods reach American consumers through third countries.自特朗普重返白宫以来，中国的整体贸易顺差大幅攀升，有望追平甚至突破去年约1.2万亿美元的历史纪录。中国出口商迅速开辟东南亚、拉丁美洲等新市场，降低了对美国的直接依赖；与此同时，大量商品正通过第三方国家间接输往美国消费者手中。Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the start of the summit that China and the United States had agreed to extend their trade truce until Jan. 10. China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed an extension, without specifying a duration.财政部长斯科特·贝森特在峰会开幕时透露，美中双方已同意将贸易休战期延长至明年1月10日。中国商务部随后确认了延长休战的决定，但未指明具体截止日期。The relatively short extension could reflect a calculation in Beijing that its bargaining position may improve with time, especially if the Republican Party loses badly in the midterm elections.这一相对短期的休战延长，或许反映出北京方面的策略盘算：随着时间的推移，其谈判筹码可能会进一步增强，特别是在共和党若在中期选举中遭遇重挫的情况下。“Suddenly, the negotiation price changes because Trump will be on his back foot, he’ll be weak against China, and he’ll need China even more than he does today,” Mr. Medeiros said.麦艾文指出：“届时谈判的门槛将发生改变，因为特朗普将陷入被动，在对华交锋中处于弱势，对中国的需求也会比现在更加迫切。”For U.S. negotiators, the extension allows them to continue seeking a deal as soon as possible after the midterm elections.对美国谈判代表而言，休战延期使他们能够在中期选举结束后继续争取尽快达成全面协议。The summit has also given Mr. Xi a chance to portray himself at home as a powerful and respected world leader. Mr. Trump welcomed Mr. Xi as he disembarked from his plane, whereas Mr. Xi sent Vice President Han Zheng to the airport to welcome Mr. Trump to Beijing in May.这场峰会也让习近平可以趁机在国内塑造自己强大且受尊重的全球领袖形象。在此次峰会中，特朗普亲自前往舷梯前迎接下飞机的习近平；而在今年5月特朗普访华时，习近平是派副主席韩正前往接机。A display of Mr. Xi’s stature — and, by extension, China’s — is particularly useful as Beijing seeks a tranquil international environment ahead of next year’s Communist Party congress. Mr. Xi appears highly likely to remain in charge even as leaders around him may change. But the gathering will still require extensive maneuvering over senior appointments and policy priorities.在北京力求在明年中共全国代表大会前营造平稳外部环境之际，展现习近平以及中国的国际影响力尤为重要。尽管他身边的高层人事可能迎来调整，但习近平继续执政几乎已成定局。即便如此，这场盛会仍需要围绕高层人事布局与政策优先事项展开密集的内部协调。Repeated meetings with Mr. Trump could help keep China’s most important foreign relationship stable as Mr. Xi turns his attention to domestic politics.在习近平将精力转回国内政治之际，与特朗普保持频密会晤有助于夯实中国最重要的一对双边关系。And few domestic problems are more pressing than the country’s housing market crash.而在当前，没有哪一项国内难题比房地产市场的全面崩盘更为紧迫。The property downturn has created a cascade of problems. Falling apartment prices have eaten into household savings, while the collapse in property development has gutted the land-use revenue many local governments depended on. Apartment prices have already fallen twice as far as they did in the United States during the American housing market debacle nearly two decades ago.楼市持续低迷引发了一连串连锁反应。房价下挫侵蚀了居民家庭的积蓄，房企倒闭潮则抽干了许多地方政府赖以维系财政的土地出让收入。当下的住宅价格跌幅已达近二十年前美国次贷危机时期房价跌幅的两倍。Chinese families have responded by cutting back sharply on spending. Restaurants, shopping malls and car dealerships are struggling, while weak domestic demand has left China increasingly reliant on its export industries to sustain growth.中国家庭对此做出的直接反应是急剧紧缩开支。餐饮、商场以及汽车销售行业陷入苦撑，疲软的内需迫使中国经济更加依赖出口产业来维持增长底线。Mr. Trump returned to office threatening tariffs severe enough to reshape China’s export economy. Nearly halfway through the American president’s second term, those tariffs are modest, China’s trade surplus shows no signs of slowing, and Beijing has demonstrated considerable economic leverage.特朗普重返白宫时曾威胁要加征足以重塑中国出口经济的严厉关税。然而，在其第二任期即将过半之际，这些关税措施显得相对温和，中国的贸易顺差扩大势头丝毫没有放缓的迹象，反而展示出了相当可观的经济制衡杠杆。For Mr. Xi, then, another summit that ends without the steep American tariffs once threatened against Chinese exports may represent the biggest victory of all.因此，对于习近平而言，又一场没有以美国加征高昂关税收场的峰会——这样的关税一度威胁到中国的出口——或许本身就是一种至关重要的胜利。David Pierson自香港对本文有报道贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。