ES and the Fed projections that mattered more than the hikeE-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI_DL:ES1!tradewaysThe Fed hiked on September 16, the first hike since 2023. Futures had priced it at over 90 percent for days, so the decision itself told the market nothing new. The news was in the Summary of Economic Projections, which the Fed released with the statement. At the same meeting where the Committee raised rates, it raised its growth forecast for this year and next and lowered its unemployment forecast. A hike into a slowing economy usually comes with growth revised down. This one came with growth revised up, and the rate path went up with it. In June the median still had cuts in 2027. In September it is flat all year. Warsh then spent most of the press conference on inflation. ES sold off to 7,575, which is the boxed candle on the chart. If you only listened to the press conference, you heard a hawkish chair and a market that didn't like him. The next day ES had recovered the whole drop. It now trades above the late-August high near 7,780. The chart doesn't prove anything, and one hot inflation print could change it. My read is that the market sold the tone of the press conference and then went back to the projections. They describe a Fed that expects the economy to keep growing at higher rates. The October 27-28 meeting has no new projections. The next set comes out on December 9.