DAVID PIERSON2026年9月22日今年5月，特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平在北京人民大会堂。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesWhen China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and President Trump meet in Washington this week, the two men will be operating on vastly different clocks.本周，中国最高领导人习近平和特朗普总统在华盛顿会面时，两人面对的政治时钟将大不相同。The American president is constrained by the immediate demands of a midterm election in November and a grinding war. The Chinese leader is gearing up for a norm-shattering fourth term as head of the ruling Communist Party, that will keep him in power for another five years.美国总统受到11月中期选举迫在眉睫的政治压力以及一场旷日持久的战争的牵制。中国领导人则正准备开启他打破常规的第四个中共中央总书记任期，这将使他继续执政五年。For Mr. Xi, the disparity in political realities gives him an edge in maintaining the truce that the two countries reached last year. A renewed trade fight would hit American consumers right before the election — a risk Mr. Trump can ill afford. China’s economy is struggling too, but Mr. Xi answers to no electorate, giving him the patience to prolong the détente on his terms.对习近平来说，两人在政治现实中的差异让他在维持去年达成的休战局面时占据优势。如果贸易战再起，就会在选举前打击美国消费者，这是特朗普难以承受的风险。中国经济同样陷入困境，但习近平无需对选民负责，这让他有足够的耐心按照自己的节奏，将这段缓和局面尽可能延长。“Each of Xi’s face-to-face encounters with Trump in his second term would only have reinforced Xi’s prior conviction that Trump is leading an America that is dangerous but declining,” said Jonathan Czin, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who previously worked at the C.I.A. analyzing Chinese politics.“在特朗普第二个任期内，习近平每一次与他碰面可能都只会进一步强化习近平此前的判断，即特朗普领导下的美国虽然危险，却正在衰落，”曾在中央情报局从事中国政治分析工作、现为布鲁金斯学会研究员的秦江南(Jonathan Czin)说。Mr. Xi, who will sit down for talks with Mr. Trump on Thursday, may be wagering that leaning into Mr. Trump’s preference for leader-to-leader diplomacy can insulate the relationship from flash points like the status of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, and the competition to dominate artificial intelligence.习近平将在周四与特朗普举行会谈，他的盘算或许是：顺应特朗普偏好的“领导人对领导人”外交模式或许能让两国关系免受一些敏感议题的冲击，比如台湾的地位问题（北京宣称对这个自治岛屿拥有主权），以及双方在人工智能领域争夺主导地位的竞争。Keeping Mr. Trump at bay would give Mr. Xi breathing room to work on rejuvenating his listless economy, which has been weakened by a property crisis, high youth unemployment and excess production. It would give him time to rebuild the upper echelons of his military leadership, which he has hollowed out in a drive against corruption and disloyalty. And it would allow him to continue expanding his country’s industrial, technological and military strength for a future showdown with the United States.让特朗普暂时不来找麻烦将给中国领导人喘息空间，着手提提振因房地产危机、青年失业率高企和产能过剩而陷入疲软的经济。这也将给他时间重建军队高层，此前他在一场反腐败、反不忠行动中对军队高层进行了大清洗。同时，这还能让他继续增强中国在工业、技术和军事上的实力，为未来与美国的对抗做准备。Analysts say China benefits every time Mr. Trump’s attention drifts elsewhere. By quarreling with traditional American allies or sinking deeper into the war in Iran, Mr. Trump is weakening his country's global standing and pulling troops away from the Pacific.分析人士说，每当特朗普的注意力转向其他地方，中国都会从中受益。无论是与美国的传统盟友发生争执，还是在伊朗战争中越陷越深，特朗普都在削弱美国的全球地位，并将军力从太平洋地区撤离。“Xi would love to tell Trump, ‘Go on, stay the course,’” said Suisheng Zhao, executive director of the China Center at the University of Denver. “For Xi, Trump represents a window of opportunity for China, so his priority is to buy more time.”“习近平巴不得对特朗普说，‘继续吧，照这个路子走下去，’”丹佛大学中国中心主任赵穗生说。“对习近平来说，特朗普给中国带来了一个机会窗口，所以他的首要任务就是争取更多时间。”An Emboldened Xi Heads to Washington习近平更有底气地前往华盛顿Since first meeting Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago more than nine years ago — a gathering best remembered for being when Mr. Xi learned about U.S. missile strikes on Syria while dining on what Mr. Trump described as the “most beautiful chocolate cake” — Mr. Xi has had an extraordinary amount of time for a Chinese leader to size up his chief geopolitical rival.自九年多前在马阿拉歌庄园首次与特朗普会面以来——那次会晤最令人记忆犹新的一幕是，习近平在品尝特朗普口中“最美味的巧克力蛋糕”时得知了美国对叙利亚实施导弹打击的消息，习近平拥有了一段对中国领导人而言异乎寻常的漫长时间，可以观察和判断自己的主要地缘政治对手。Early in Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Xi was somewhat accommodating toward the American president. In 2018, his government agreed to purchase $200 billion in additional U.S. goods and services to offset a trade imbalance (though Beijing never fully honored that deal.)在特朗普第一个任期之初，习近平对这位美国总统在一定程度上采取了迁就姿态。2018年，中国政府同意额外购买2000亿美元的美国商品与服务，以缓解贸易失衡（尽管北京从未完全兑现这一承诺）。2017年，特朗普与第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩马阿拉歌接待了习近平及夫人彭丽媛。Last year, Mr. Xi flipped the dynamic between the two superpowers.去年，习近平扭转了两个超级大国之间的态势。Faced with Mr. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, Mr. Xi was the only world leader who refused to back down, choosing instead to match his opponent with one sky-high tariff after another. Mr. Xi then reached for his ace card by throttling exports of Chinese critical minerals, or rare earths, which companies globally need for modern technologies. Backed into a corner, the Trump administration called for a truce.面对特朗普的“解放日”关税，习近平是唯一拒绝退让的世界领导人，转而选择一轮又一轮高额关税针锋相对。随后，习近平祭出了杀手锏，限制中国关键矿产（即稀土）的出口——全球企业制造现代科技产品都离不开这些资源。被逼到困境的特朗普政府于是呼吁休战。It was a payoff years in the making: a rare instance in which Beijing not only withstood U.S. pressure but turned the tables and forced it to relent. Beijing, as a result, is emboldened today and sees itself more as an equal to Washington, analysts say.这是多年布局终于得到的回报：北京不仅顶住了美国的压力，而且扭转了局面，迫使其让步，这是罕见的。分析人士指出，这让今天的北京底气更足，也愈发将自己视为与华盛顿平起平坐的一方。The Trump administration “thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions. And that did not occur. In fact, the opposite did,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.特朗普政府“原以为可以通过巨大的单边施压迫使中国让步。但事情并没有这样发展。事实上，结果恰恰相反”，华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心研究员甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说。“I think now this is Xi Jinping’s world and we’re all living in it,” he added.“我认为，如今这个世界已经是习近平的世界了，我们不过都生活在其中，”他补充道。An Unstable Truce并不稳固的休战The superpowers should put limits on competition, Mr. Xi’s argument goes, to avoid what he has warned could be a catastrophic clash. To this end, he has pushed a formula he calls “constructive strategic stability.”按照习近平的主张，两个超级大国应当为竞争设定边界，以避免他警告过可能发生的那种灾难性冲突。为此，他提出了一套称为“建设性战略稳定”的方案。In practice, what this means is that Beijing wants Washington to accept boundaries on where it can challenge China.落实到实际层面，这意味着北京希望华盛顿接受一定的边界，明确它在哪些地方不可以挑战中国。In July, for example, when the U.S. Federal Communications Commission proposed a ban on Chinese-made humanoid robots, China’s Ministry of Commerce invoked the phrase, demanding that Washington roll back the restrictions to preserve “strategic stability.”例如，今年7月，当美国联邦通信委员会提议禁止中国制造的人形机器人时，中国商务部就搬出了这一说法，要求华盛顿撤销限制，以维护“战略稳定”。2025年，中国杭州宇树科技公司的一场机器人拳击演示。American analysts view the slogan not as a serious effort at ironing out differences but as an attempt to get Washington to recognize China’s clout and back off. China could apply it to any new U.S. restrictions on chip exports or arms sales to Taiwan.美国分析人士认为，这一口号并非真正试图弥合分歧，而是要让华盛顿承认中国的实力并作出退让。对于美国今后出台的任何芯片出口限制或对台军售，中国都可能套用这一说法。“The truce is not constructive because little diplomatic infrastructure is being built,” Mr. Czin of the Brookings Institution said. “It is tactical rather than strategic. And therefore it is inherently unstable.”“这种休战并不具有建设性，因为双方几乎没有建立起什么外交机制，”布鲁金斯学会的秦江南说。“它是战术性的，而非战略性的。因此，它在本质上并不稳定。”Summitry is the Strategy峰会外交是一种策略Mr. Xi appears to have calculated that the best way to manage the United States is to engage Mr. Trump in high-profile summits rich in optics but thin in substance.习近平似乎已经认定，应对美国的最佳方式就是与特朗普举行一场场备受瞩目的峰会——场面十足，实质内容却不多。The planned meeting on Thursday will be their third face-to-face in less than a year, a pace that could continue with talks in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, and at the Group of 20 summit in Miami in December.计划于周四举行的会晤将是他们在不到一年内第三次面对面会晤。这一节奏可能还会延续：11月在深圳举行的亚太经合组织峰会，以及12月在迈阿密举行的二十国集团峰会，他们都可能再度会晤。“Head-of-state diplomacy is the cornerstone of China-U.S. relations,” China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, told Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call on Thursday.“元首外交是中美关系的定盘星，”中国最高外交官王毅周四与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话时表示。特朗普上一次与习近平会见是今年5月在北京。本周的会晤将是两人在不到一年内第三次面对面会谈。But beyond extending the trade truce, the meetings have produced few breakthroughs. China may agree to more agricultural purchases this week, but expectations are low on issues like A.I. safety or China’s trade imbalances.但除了延长贸易休战之外，这些会晤几乎没有产生什么突破。中国本周可能同意增加农产品采购，但在人工智能安全或中美贸易失衡等问题上，外界的预期普遍不高。That is by design, analysts say. Enticing Mr. Trump with the pageantry of summits he seems to relish lowers the risk that he may do something to derail relations — like greenlight a package of arms to Taiwan.分析人士指出，这正是精心设计的结果。用特朗普似乎乐此不疲的峰会排场来吸引他，可以降低他做出某些可能破坏两国关系举动的风险，比如批准一揽子对台军售方案。Tellingly, Mr. Trump has avoided criticizing China in the lead-up to the talks, even downplaying a Wall Street Journal report that China had supplied Iran with satellite images of a U.S. base in Jordan where three American troops were killed in an Iranian strike.颇能说明问题的是，在会谈举行前夕，特朗普一直避免批评中国，甚至淡化处理了《华尔街日报》的一篇报道，该报道称，中国曾向伊朗提供美军在约旦一处基地的卫星图像，而三名美军士兵在伊朗对该基地的袭击中丧生。The summitry will also serve a domestic purpose for Mr. Xi by burnishing his image at home as a global statesman, during a moment of economic anxiety for many Chinese. It is important for Mr. Xi to demonstrate that he can manage Beijing’s most critical bilateral relationship, analysts say.这场峰会外交对习近平而言同样具有对内意义：在许多中国民众正为经济前景感到焦虑不安之际，这有助于他在国内塑造自己作为全球政治家的形象。分析人士指出，对习近平来说，展现自己有能力处理北京最重要的双边关系至关重要。Mr. Trump is expected to greet Mr. Xi personally on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland when his plane lands on Wednesday. The White House will host Mr. Xi and Peng Liyuan, the first lady, for a state dinner, the first such banquet since King Charles III and Queen Camilla visited in April.预计特朗普将于周三在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地停机坪亲自迎接习近平。白宫将为习近平和第一夫人彭丽媛举行国宴，这是自今年4月国王查尔斯三世和卡米拉王后到访以来举办的首场国宴。“Xi wants to be seen by the Chinese public as a highly respected, influential and consequential world leader — and nothing can top being wined and dined at the White House,” said Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese leadership politics.“习近平希望，在中国民众眼中，自己是一位备受尊敬、极具影响力、举足轻重的世界领导人，而没有什么比在白宫受到盛情款待更能体现这一点了，”研究中国领导层政治的克莱蒙特·麦肯纳学院教授裴敏欣说。“Xi cannot afford to be distracted by a huge confrontation with the United States,” Mr. Pei said.“习近平承受不起与美国爆发大规模对抗从而分散精力的代价，”裴敏欣说道。Berry Wang对本文有研究贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。