BTC: failed break of the IB high - short back to 83,874Bitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.Ptbghgvrt9tWed 23 Sep. Today's Initial Balance (IB = the first hour of the US session, 13:30-14:30 UTC) on the Binance BTCUSDT perp: high 85,908.5 / low 83,873.8 / middle 84,891.2. PLAN (conditional: only if price gets back up there today) - Trigger: price pokes above 85,908.5, then a 5m candle closes back below it within 3 candles, with more selling than buying on that candle - Entry: that close - Stop: above the poke high, and at least 380 above entry (1.5x the 5m ATR of about 253) - Target: 83,873.8 (IB low) - The box on the chart is an example: entry 85,850 / stop 86,230 / target 83,873.8, about 5R. Real numbers come from the actual poke. WHY: this goes with the 1h downtrend (lower highs since the 87,247 overnight high). 85,908.5 sits just under the 86,000 round number and this morning's hourly lower highs, so a poke there is likely to meet sellers. On a wide-IB day, failed breaks at the edges are the more common outcome. AGAINST IT: price is about 1,400 below the IB high right now, so this may simply not trigger today. Friday's quarterly options expiry has large call open interest at 90,000. INVALIDATION: a hold above 85,908.5 (no close back inside within 3 candles) = the break is real; step aside. Educational analysis, not financial advice.