The next big crypto narrative? RWA, AI and CFGCentrifugeCRYPTO:CFGUSDjessekrHello everyone, today i am going to talk about crypto again, specifically RWA assets. Lets first talk about Crypto: Current Crypto situation: Crypto is gaining a little bit of traction currently. Why? This is actually a pretty hard question to answer and i can only guess why at the moment. Lets talk about why Bitcoin was created in the first place. Bitcoin was an answer to the big financial crisis in 2008. Our USD or other forex assets are largely in the hands of the big guys up there. Its like playing a game of Monopoly, but the player you play against has access to the bank on the toilet and you cannot see what he does with the money. If you go over start you get $200, but he just printed those $200 with moms printer. Right now, something similar is happening. In short: USA is in a LOT of debt right now. It is so high, that they need to do something about it. So what do they do? Print money and buy their own debt. Smart move... What happens? Purchasing power goes out of the window. Just look at the past: $1 in 1970 had massively more purchasing power than $1 today. Holding Dollars long term without any return is digging your own financial grave. Why is crypto better? Bitcoin, as everybody knows, has a hard cap and is basically immune to supply inflation outside of its fixed issuance schedule. Its debatable if that is a good thing, sometimes you need inflation but in these times its just better. Be aware, just because something is crypto, doesnt mean there is no inflation. Ethereum for example can have inflation, although it is decentralized and functionally controlled by the protocol. Some scam coins can print coins like they are Robin Hood. Dont invest without doing the utmost research. Crypto is still a dangerous place to invest in. If there is a financial crisis, a lot of people exit their crypto positions. CRYPTO IS NOT SAFE AGAINST A FINANCIAL CRISIS!!! The world is a very dangerous place right now, especially for investing. Be diversified, crypto is not a good place if everything goes down badly, maybe even the worst place short term. With that out of the way. Crypto and AI AI is a very heavily invested market. It kind of looks like a bubble to me if im being honest. If investors see no return, investing stops -> AI bubble bursts -> Massive crash in all tech markets. Watch out for that! But, AI is revolutionary. AI will change the world like never seen before. AI is also extremely dangerous. We are working right now on something called superintelligence. This essentially means these machines could become smarter than us across many tasks. Just imagine us looking at apes. Not exactly the same, but you get the point. This is in my opinion very dangerous for our species. I hope to see the following: In the near future, a new near-superintelligent model does something, that has high negative implications on our daily life. Everybody sees the extreme danger of these AIs. Development slows down, investments slow down, big financial correction and all the fun stuff. But this is actually good. We are being pushed onto the correct roadway, AI development will be very different. This is in my opinion one of the best things that could happen long term. Dont get me wrong, i am extremely positive on AI. The technology will have a huge positive impact on our lives, when developed correctly. We just need to survive the "big incident". If this incident will not happen in the near future (1-3 years), im starting to get scared. Sorry for this rant, now comes the interesting stuff. How will AI be integrated into the financial world? This is where blockchain becomes interesting. AI agents need to pay for things. They need to transfer assets. They need markets that work 24/7. They need programmable finance. Traditional finance is slow and built mainly for humans. Blockchain is much easier to automate. So, Blockchain (crypto) correlates with the acceleration of AI technology + USA doing shit with its currency again. That is what i think is currently being priced into the crypto market. My bet here, is the RWA side of crypto. Why? AI agents probably dont only want to trade Bitcoin and meme coins. They need access to stocks, bonds, funds, credit and basically everything else. For that, real world assets need to become digital and programmable. That is exactly what RWA is trying to do. Big corps see this trend. My personal favorite is Centrifuge but Ondo is also a good pick. In this post, im focusing on CFG but this will also apply to Ondo. CFG vs Ondo Ondo has the better position in the market right now. Better distribution, bigger name, more attention, more liquidity. CFG is smaller and much more speculative. But this is exactly why i like it. The valuation difference between Ondo and CFG is huge compared to the difference in their actual RWA business. That does NOT mean CFG is automatically undervalued. Ondo deserves a premium. But in my opinion, CFG looks heavily undervalued compared to Ondo if Centrifuge continues to grow strongly. CFG = more risk, more return. Ondo = less risk, less upside. CP172 CP172 is a big step in the value of Centrifuge holders and probably one of the reasons why the price is up heavily right now. One of the biggest problems with CFG was always: Centrifuge grows. Centrifuge earns money. CFG holders get basically nothing from it. If CFG holders can eventually convert their tokens into actual equity, this changes the whole valuation. Then you are not only holding some governance token. You could potentially own part of the actual company. This is huge. BUT, there are still a lot of questions. Who can convert? What exactly do you own? What happens with dilution? What happens with future fundraising? What happens with regulations? So dont price this in like it is already finished. It is not. But it is definitely one of the biggest things i am watching. Fundamentals out of the way, lets go to the technicals A big if, if there will be no financial crisis in the near future, this can go up a lot. Be careful! Currently we see a new higher low. 150 (4h) SMA is turning. My ATR-based trend indicator is above the 150 SMA. All good signs for a bullish trend. Maybe right now is not a good time to invest. In the next couple of days, i see a short retest of maybe $0.13. For the next upswing, it indicates to go to around $0.34 and best case $0.49. These are not guarantees, just areas i am watching. CP172 is a big step in the value of Centrifuge holders and probably the reason why the price is up heavily right now. Ondo has the better position in the market, but CFG looks heavily undervalued compared to Ondo in my opinion. CFG is the more risk, more return strategy. Ondo is the safer strategy. If the whole crypto market crashes, both will probably get destroyed short term anyway. Dont forget that. (not financial advice)