NAS100 (US100) – Bearish Retracement SetupUS Nas 100OANDA:NAS100USDQutabBasheerNAS100 has broken its previous all-time high (ATH) and is now approaching a critical resistance area near 30,866. Although the broader market structure remains bullish, the combination of a potential daily double top, an extended ABCD pattern, and bearish RSI divergence suggests that a short-term corrective move could develop before the index resumes its upward trend. 1. ABCD Pattern and Market Structure The chart illustrates a developing bullish ABCD structure, with the following key points: Point A: The initial swing low around 27,150. Point B: The previous significant swing high near 30,300. Point C: The corrective low around 28,750, where buyers regained control. Point D: The projected extension of the bullish structure toward 31,900. The bullish impulse from point C has already pushed NAS100 above its previous ATH, bringing price into the resistance area around 30,866. The chart also highlights a Fibonacci extension of 2.146, which provides a potential upside projection for the broader ABCD structure. However, point D remains a projected target rather than a confirmed reversal or completion point. Before price can continue toward this objective, the current overextended bullish move may require a healthy retracement. 2. Daily Double Top and ATH Liquidity The daily structure suggests a potential double-top formation around the previous ATH and current resistance area. Following the breakout above the previous all-time high, price is approaching the 30,866 resistance level, where buying momentum may begin to weaken. This breakout may also have triggered buy-side liquidity resting above the previous highs. A rejection from this area, followed by a break of the recent 4H support, would strengthen the case for a bearish correction. Important: The double top is not yet confirmed. A break below the intervening swing low or relevant neckline is needed to validate the larger reversal structure. 3. RSI Bearish Divergence The RSI provides an additional warning of weakening bullish momentum. On the 4H chart, price has formed a higher high, while the RSI has formed a lower high, creating a potential regular bearish divergence. Although RSI remains above 70, indicating strong bullish momentum and overbought conditions, the divergence suggests that the latest price advance is not being supported by an equivalent increase in momentum. This supports the possibility of a short-term bearish retracement. However, bearish divergence alone is insufficient to confirm a reversal, particularly while price remains above its previous ATH. 4. Fibonacci Retracement and Key Levels The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low at point C to the current high near 30,866, which represents the 0.0 Fibonacci level and ATH resistance, making it a potential reversal area. The initial support lies at 30,739, marking the previous breakout area and our first downside target. A further bearish retracement could push price toward the green demand zone between 30,096 and 29,947, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and serves as our primary bearish target. If selling pressure continues, the next support levels are 29,750 at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and 29,500 at the 0.618 level, where a deeper correction could find support before a potential bullish continuation. The green demand zone between 30,096 and 29,947 is particularly important because it aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the previous bullish breakout structure. A retracement into this area could attract renewed buying interest, provided the zone holds and bullish confirmation develops. 5. Trade Plan would be on Bearish retracement for Short setup Conditional trade based on the resistance rejection shown on the chart. Entry zone 30,750–30,866 Stop loss Above 30,866 Target 1 30,739 Target 2 30,096 Target 3 29,947 Extended target 29,750 Entry confirmation: Wait for a bearish rejection near 30,866 and a confirmed break below the immediate 4H support around 30,739. A subsequent failed retest would provide additional confirmation. Invalidation: Sustained 4H acceptance above 30,866 would weaken the bearish setup. The stop should be placed beyond the confirmed rejection high, with an appropriate buffer for volatility. 6. Bullish Continuation Scenario The proposed bearish trade is a countertrend retracement setup, not a prediction that the broader bullish structure has ended. If NAS100 retraces toward the 30,096–29,947 demand zone and produces a bullish rejection, the area could provide an opportunity to reassess long positions. A higher low, bullish market structure shift, and recovery in RSI momentum would support the possibility of continuation toward the projected ABCD point D. Alternatively, a sustained breakout above 30,866 without a meaningful retracement would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis and suggest that buyers remain in control. Conclusion: NAS100 is trading near a critical resistance area following its ATH breakout. The potential daily double top, 4H bearish RSI divergence, and Fibonacci structure support monitoring for a corrective move toward the 0.382 retracement and green demand zone. Confirmation of a bearish reversal is essential before considering the short setup, while the broader bullish ABCD projection remains valid unless the underlying market structure breaks. #NAS100 #US100 #NASDAQ #ABCDPattern #FibonacciRetracement #RSIDivergence #DoubleTop #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #Sarmaaya.pk