CHOE SANG-HUN2026年9月22日韩国总统李在明在首尔的总统官邸青瓦台与《纽约时报》交谈了约70分钟。 Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesBreaking with decades of policy on North Korea, the president of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, is now urging the United States to ease sanctions on Pyongyang in exchange for an agreement that it freeze its weapons programs.韩国总统李在明正打破数十年来对朝鲜的政策，敦促美国放松对平壤的制裁，以换取其冻结武器计划的协议。“I believe there is significant value in a trade-off between sanctions — which are not particularly effective anyway — and a stop to the development of additional nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile technology,” Mr. Lee said in an interview with The New York Times on Friday.“我认为，在制裁——反正这些制裁也不是特别有效——与制止进一步发展核武器和洲际弹道导弹技术之间取舍是有很大价值的，”李在明周五在接受《纽约时报》采访时说。However unpalatable such a bargain may seem, the world has no realistic alternative, Mr. Lee argued. North Korea is increasingly brandishing its nuclear missiles against the South. It is no longer the isolated pariah that Washington has tried to tame through a mix of pressure and dialogue as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have altered the geopolitical landscape.李在明主张，无论这样的交易看起来多么令人难以接受，世界没有现实的替代方案。朝鲜正越来越多地向韩国亮出它的核导弹。随着乌克兰和伊朗的战争改变地缘政治格局，朝鲜已经不再是一个被孤立的国际弃儿，被华盛顿试图通过压力和对话相结合来驯服。Both Russia and China have re-embraced North Korea as a strategic partner, particularly after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, deployed troops and weapons to support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That conflict, alongside American strikes in Iran, has only strengthened North Korea’s resolve to expand its nuclear deterrent.俄罗斯和中国都重新拥抱朝鲜作为战略伙伴，特别是在朝鲜领导人金正恩部署军队和武器支持俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之后。那场冲突，加上美国在伊朗的打击，只会加强朝鲜扩大其核威慑的决心。朝鲜领导人金正恩一直受到俄罗斯和中国的拉拢。去年，他在北京的天安门广场与普京和习近平一起参加了一场阅兵式。Still, Mr. Lee believes that President Trump is the only leader capable of drawing Mr. Kim back to the negotiating table. South Korean officials say Mr. Trump represents the North Korean leader’s best opportunity to sign a peace treaty for the Korean War, which never formally ended, and normalize relations with Washington.尽管如此，李在明认为特朗普总统是唯一有能力将金正恩拉回谈判桌的领导人。韩国官员表示，特朗普是朝鲜领导人签署朝鲜战争和平条约——这场战争从未正式结束——并与华盛顿实现关系正常化的最佳机会。Some analysts warn it is naïve to expect the two leaders to forge a substantial deal, but Mr. Lee asked what option is left but diplomacy.一些分析人士警告说，期望两位领导人达成实质性协议是幼稚的，但李在明问，除了外交还有什么选择。“Aiming for denuclearization under the current circumstances,” Mr. Lee warned, “guarantees that nothing will be accomplished.”“在当前情况下以无核化为目标，”李在明警告说，“保证什么都不会实现。”Once a freeze is secured, he envisions building trust through reciprocal incentives and concessions to eventually convince the North to reduce its nuclear arsenal. The ultimate goal would be to create an environment where Pyongyang feels secure enough to survive without nuclear weapons.一旦冻结得到确保，他设想通过互惠激励和让步来建立信任，最终说服朝鲜削减其核武库。最终目标将是创造一个环境，让平壤感到足够安全，可以在没有核武器的情况下生存。This week, Mr. Lee will visit New York, where he will present his vision for peace and coexistence on the Korean Peninsula to the United Nations.本周，李在明将访问纽约，在那里他将向联合国提出他对朝鲜半岛和平与共存的愿景。Mr. Lee spoke with The Times for about 70 minutes at the House of Eternal Spring, a tile-roofed banquet hall nestled within the Blue House compound, the traditional seat of the South Korean presidency. His predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative, moved the presidential office to the Defense Ministry headquarters before declaring martial law two years ago, starting a turbulent political period that ended in his impeachment and imprisonment.李在明在常春斋与《纽约时报》记者交谈了大约70分钟。这座瓦顶宴会厅坐落在传统的韩国总统官邸青瓦台园区内。他的保守派前任尹锡悦在两年前宣布戒严并导致一场政治动荡之前将总统办公室迁到了国防部总部，尹锡悦最终受到弹劾和监禁。Mr. Lee’s decision to return the presidency to the Blue House upon his inauguration 15 months ago was meant to signal a return to normalcy. During a recent university graduation, he posed for selfies with students — a stark contrast to Mr. Yoon, whose bodyguards tackled and gagged a student protester two years earlier.李在明在15个月前就职时决定将官邸迁回青瓦台，旨在发出回归常态的信号。在最近的一次大学毕业典礼上，他与学生们自拍——这与尹锡悦形成鲜明对比，后者的保镖在两年前强行按倒并捂嘴制服了一名抗议学生。李在明周五在青瓦台。他任内面临着国内外的政治挑战。 Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesBut Mr. Lee, 61, is facing his own problems. His approval ratings have nearly halved since April as many South Koreans blame his government for soaring home prices and a recent stock market crash.但61岁的李在明正面临自己的问题。他的支持率自4月以来几乎腰斩，因为许多韩国人将房价飙升和最近的股市崩盘归咎于他的政府。He also faces mounting pressure from Mr. Trump, who recently called him ungrateful for refusing to back the American war against Iran. During the interview, Mr. Lee defended his stance on Iran, saying that South Korea’s Constitution barred him from deploying troops to a war already underway between foreign countries.他还面临来自特朗普越来越大的压力，特朗普最近称他忘恩负义，因为他拒绝支持美国对伊朗的战争。在采访中，李在明为他在伊朗问题上的立场辩护，称韩国宪法禁止他向已经在进行中的外国战争部署军队。The South Korean president is also seeking to defuse trade tensions with Mr. Trump. South Korean negotiators are racing to implement a deal struck between the two leaders last fall, in which Seoul agreed to invest $350 billion in the United States in exchange for lower tariffs on South Korean products.这位韩国总统还在寻求缓解与特朗普的贸易紧张关系。韩国谈判代表正在争分夺秒地实施两位领导人去年秋天达成的协议，首尔同意在美国投资3500亿美元，以换取对韩国产品降低关税。To placate Mr. Trump, South Korea may offer to build a gas power plant in Texas and eight nuclear power plants across the United States, according to people familiar with the matter.据知情人士透露，为了安抚特朗普，韩国可能会提议在得克萨斯州建造一座天然气发电厂，并在美国各地建造八座核电站。Mr. Lee insisted he was unfazed by Mr. Trump’s criticisms. “I fully understand that from his perspective, the U.S. president may make various remarks,” he said.李在明坚称他对特朗普的批评并不在意。“我完全理解，从他的角度来看，美国总统可能会发表各种言论，”他说。Mr. Lee hopes to leverage Mr. Trump’s enduring fascination with the North Korean dictator to convince the U.S. leader to restart stalled talks and de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.李在明希望利用特朗普对朝鲜那位独裁者持久的迷恋说服这位美国领导人重启停滞的谈判，并缓和朝鲜半岛的紧张局势。特朗普总统与金正恩的个人外交（包括2019年踏上朝鲜领土的一次会面）没有产生任何结果。Mr. Lee hopes dialogue between North Korea and the United States would improve his own nation’s relations with its neighbor to the north, which have deteriorated in recent years. North Korea has demolished roads and railways that once linked the two Koreas while also adding minefields and other barriers along their already heavily fortified border.李在明希望朝鲜与美国之间的对话能改善他自己的国家与北方邻国的关系，近年来两国关系已经恶化。朝鲜拆除了曾经连接朝韩的道路和铁路，同时还在已经高度设防的边境沿线增加了雷区和其他障碍。By contrast, North Korea is moving closer to both Moscow and Beijing. After supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, the North has opened a bridge along its border with Russia and is about to open another one with China.相比之下，朝鲜正在向莫斯科和北京靠拢。在支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争后，朝鲜在其与俄罗斯的边境沿线添设了一座桥梁，并即将添设另一座与中国连接的桥梁。The collapse of inter-Korean communication has eliminated South Korea’s ability to serve as a mediator between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump, a role Seoul played in helping arrange three summit meetings during Mr. Trump’s first term. Those meetings ended without agreement on denuclearizing North Korea.朝韩沟通的崩溃导致韩国不再具备充当朝美调解人的能力，首尔在特朗普第一个任期内曾帮助安排了三次峰会。那些会议未能促成朝鲜无核化协议。Backed by Russia and China and buoyed by renewed economic growth, Mr. Kim is no longer as desperate for a deal with Mr. Trump and now possesses greater leverage to demand more favorable terms, analysts have said. Still, Mr. Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to revive his personal diplomacy with Mr. Kim, often boasting of their “very good relationship.”分析人士表示，在俄罗斯和中国的支持下，加上受到经济恢复增长的鼓舞，金正恩不再那么急于与特朗普达成协议，现在有了更多筹码来要求更有利的条件。尽管如此，特朗普一再表达他渴望恢复与金正恩的个人外交，经常吹嘘他们之间“非常好的关系”。Last month, Mr. Trump unilaterally scaled back a major annual joint military exercise with South Korea, describing it as “hostile” toward Mr. Kim. North Korea, for its part, said that Mr. Kim retained “good memories and feelings about Trump” from their previous meetings.上个月，特朗普单方面缩减了与韩国的主要年度联合军事演习，将其描述为对金正恩的“敌对”行为。朝鲜方面则表示，之前的会晤让金正恩对特朗普保留了“美好的记忆和感情”。8月在靠近朝鲜边境的韩国涟川举行的联合军事演习，几十年来，美国和韩国一直在进行这样的演习。上个月，特朗普单方面缩减了一场重要演习的规模。Mr. Lee is not alone in calling for a change in strategy to revive talks with the North. At a forum in South Korea last week, Stephen E. Biegun, who led U.S. negotiations with North Korea during Mr. Trump’s first term, said the United States could negotiate a “slowing or freezing” of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.李在明并非唯一呼吁改变策略以重启与朝鲜谈判的人。上周在韩国的一次论坛上，曾在特朗普第一个任期内领导美国与朝鲜谈判的史蒂芬·比根表示，美国可以谈判“减缓或冻结”朝鲜的核武库。Others are more skeptical about a breakthrough. Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute, cautioned that Mr. Trump may be more interested in creating a diplomatic spectacle with Mr. Kim, such as a surprise visit to Pyongyang, to divert public attention from the prolonged war with Iran. Nor would achieving a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula be Mr. Kim’s main concern, he said.但也有一些人对此存在怀疑。总部位于首尔的世宗研究所高级分析师郑成长警告说，特朗普可能更感兴趣的是与金正恩制造外交奇观，例如突然访问平壤，以转移公众对旷日持久的对伊战争的注意力。他说，实现朝鲜半岛持久和平也不是金正恩的主要关切。Mr. Lee says the current stalemate in relations is simply too risky to be allowed to continue, as North Korea is steadily expanding its nuclear arsenal.李在明表示，目前关系中的僵局风险太大，不能允许继续下去，因为朝鲜正在稳步扩大其核武库。“Our estimates suggest that North Korea is now capable of producing, or may already be producing, an additional 10 to 20 nuclear weapons each year,” Mr. Lee said. “Once it believes it has accumulated enough nuclear weapons and missiles to guarantee its survival, it will be tempted to export them to make money.”“我们的估计表明，朝鲜现在有能力生产——或者可能已经在生产——每年10到20枚核武器，”李在明说。“一旦它认为已经积累了足够的核武器和导弹来保证其生存，它就会产生出口这些武器以获利的想法。”“That will be a truly dangerous moment,” he said.“那将是一个真正危险的时刻，”他说。在常春斋的李在明。Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。