Gold Still Struggling to RiseGoldOANDA:XAUUSDNouzTraderGold prices (XAU/USD) XAUUSD struggled to capitalize on a technical rebound from levels below US$4,300, succumbing once again to renewed selling pressure throughout the Asian session on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The decline in bullion was driven by the US Dollar's (USD) dominance as it hovered near two-month highs (DXY). DXY The Greenback's strength was underpinned by a chorus of hawkish rhetoric from four regional Fed Presidents, market bets on a December rate hike reaching 90%, and diplomatic-military tensions at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) ahead of the summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping scheduled for Thursday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ US Monetary Policy & UNGA: Consensus Among 4 Fed Officials & December Rate Hike Bets (90%) The US interest rate landscape aggressively reinforced the Greenback's yield advantage: 🎯 Coordinated Hawkish Rhetoric from 4 Fed Officials: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee explicitly supported further monetary policy tightening due to inflation risks sparked by commodity shocks. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasized that the door remains wide open for a rate hike to keep inflation expectations in check. 🎯 CME FedWatch: December Probability Soars to 90%: According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising the benchmark interest rate (+25 bps) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting has surged to 90%. Trump’s UNGA Speech & Iran Aviation Sanctions (September 23): In his address to the UN General Assembly, President Donald Trump warned that he faced a "major decision" regarding whether to strike a deal or "obliterate" the Islamic Republic of Iran should the conflict remain unresolved. Today, Wednesday, September 23, 2026, strict US sanctions completely blocking international flights by Iranian airlines officially take effect. 🎯 Araghchi–Witkoff Diplomacy: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a closed-door meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to reiterate Tehran's conditions regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—a meeting Trump described as "going well," though no concrete details were provided. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Price Action Analysis (H4 Timeframe) The H4 structure shows the formation of a double-bottom pattern above the green line floor at 4,236.307 (establishing an interim low at 4,235.165). Repeated rejections at this floor triggered a recovery rally that set a local Higher High (HH) in the 4,400.000 range. At the 4,344.885 price level, the most recent H4 candle is dominated by a mild corrective bearish move following rejection from the local supply area. This correction remains neatly contained above the local Higher Low (HL) floor in the 4,320.000 – 4,340.000 range, indicating buy-order absorption within the discount area. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance / Supply Zone (SBR): 4,390.000 – 4,430.000 range (middle gray box / nearest major SBR & HVN area) and the green line at 4,511.580 (Lower High limit / Major Supply Zone). - ⚡Support / Demand Zone: 4,320.000 – 4,340.000 range (nearest HL & local support area) and the green line range at 4,236.307 (lowest Major Demand Zone floor). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis Mapping wave cycle movements on the H4 timeframe: ⚡Wave Structure: The rally from the 4,236.307 low to the 4,400.000 local high is calculated as an impulsive Sub-Wave 1 (or Wave A) movement. The current corrective retracement to 4,344.885 is identified as the formation of Sub-Wave 2 (Corrective Wave). ⚡Current Status: Consolidation above the 4,320.000 – 4,340.000 floor signals the final stage of Sub-Wave 2 completion, poised to trigger the launch of the major impulsive expansion of Sub-Wave 3. ⚡Projection: Price action is projected to conclude this Sub-Wave 2 consolidation, then bounce upward to launch Sub-Wave 3—breaking past 4,400.000—and target a full test of the key SBR/HVN zone in the 4,390.000 – 4,430.000 range, with a potential extension toward the 4,511.580 green line.