Dry Weather and a Weaker Pound Push Cocoa Prices Higher!Futures contract on CocoaRUS:CC1!KalaGhaziCocoa prices are climbing for a second consecutive session, supported mainly by dry weather conditions across West Africa. Forecasts suggest that rainfall in Ivory Coast will remain below normal over the next week, which could place significant stress on cocoa crops and reduce output during the 2026/27 crop season. Since West Africa is the world’s most important cocoa-producing region, the possibility of unfavorable weather is enough to shift market sentiment and help lift prices. Gains in London cocoa accelerated after the British pound fell to a 2.75-month low. Because London cocoa is priced in sterling, a weaker pound can make the commodity more attractive to buyers using other currencies, adding further support to sterling-denominated contracts. This currency-related boost helped reinforce the weather-driven rally. The recent increase follows a three-week period in which cocoa prices were under pressure. On Tuesday, prices dropped to 1.75-month lows amid signs of stronger cocoa output in Ivory Coast. On September 2, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the country harvested 2.06 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026. That was up 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier, a sizable increase in supply that had weighed on the market. Even so, cocoa prices continue to receive underlying medium-term support from concerns about future weather patterns. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. An El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields. As a result, the cocoa market remains caught between recent evidence of stronger Ivory Coast supply and the longer-term risk that adverse weather could tighten global availability.