TLDRA Cryptoquant analyst says a bitcoin holder cost basis signal has confirmed a bull market.This is the fifth time the signal has appeared, after 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023.The measure leaves out long-term coins that have not moved in seven years.U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.06 billion from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23.Daily ETF inflows slowed from $999 million to $346.9 million over those three days.Bitcoin has shown a market signal that one analyst says confirms a new bull market. The signal has now appeared five times in the cryptocurrency’s history.The analysis came from Darkfost, a contributor at the data firm Cryptoquant. He shared his findings on Sept. 24.He said the reading confirms a recovery he expected in July. At that time, a separate signal on July 11 suggested the bear market was nearing its end. Bull Market Confirmed.After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted.This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the… pic.twitter.com/wuwdUsAW5J— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 24, 2026“This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic bitcoin is putting in place, though there’s always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out,” he wrote in a post on X.How the Bitcoin Signal WorksThe measure looks at cost basis. This is an estimate of the average price that holders paid for their coins.It compares two groups: short-term holders and active long-term holders. The bullish signal happens when the short-term group’s cost basis rises above that of the long-term group.According to Cryptoquant’s chart, this crossover happened before in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The latest reading is the fifth in that series.Which coins are counted matters. Darkfost only includes long-term coins that have moved at least once in the past seven years. He admits that the seven-year cutoff is arbitrary.Glassnode, another data firm, separates short-term and long-term holders using a holding period of about 155 days. The seven-year filter is an extra step that decides which long-term coins count as active.More than 3.5 million bitcoin older than 10 years remain untouched, according to the post. Darkfost estimated that this amount grows by about 8,000 to 30,000 bitcoin each month.That monthly change has turned negative only once since 2019. It happened after an old miner moved about 100,000 bitcoin. Coins from wallets that had been inactive for five to 15 years also moved again in 2026.ETF Inflows and Cycle OutlookDarkfost linked part of the shift in bitcoin’s momentum to money entering through exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. A spot bitcoin ETF lets investors buy fund shares through a brokerage account instead of holding coins themselves.Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju shared a separate outlook on Sept. 22. He said a larger market and more institutional ownership could soften the extreme rallies and crashes seen in past cycles.He forecast returns of three to five times for bitcoin this cycle. He said a milder bear market would follow.U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.06 billion from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, according to Farside data. Each day brought net inflows, though the amounts got smaller.The stretch began with $999 million on Sept. 21, the funds’ largest single-day inflow of 2026. Inflows then fell to $714.7 million on Sept. 22.On Sept. 23, net inflows came in at $346.9 million. The data shows demand during the period of the signal, but it does not prove that ETF buying caused the crossover.The post Bitcoin Bull Market Signal Appears for Fifth Time, Cryptoquant Analyst Says appeared first on Blockonomi.