USDJPY at a Critical Resistance!US Dollar vs. Japanese YenFX:USDJPYMaster_HunterHook: USDJPY has rallied sharply from the 153.20 area — but price is now pressing into a major resistance cluster where the descending trendline and supply zone meet. If sellers defend this area, the counter-trend recovery could unwind toward 154.20. 📉 Market Context: USDJPY remains within a broader bearish structure on the 4H chart, defined by the descending trendline from the previous highs. The recent move from around 153.20 to 157.70 represents a strong counter-trend recovery, but price is now approaching the exact area where the previous bearish structure could reassert itself. This makes 157.39–157.72 the key decision zone for the setup. Reasoning: Counter-trend recovery is meeting structural resistance — the rally from approximately 153.20 has been strong, but it is now approaching the descending trendline that has been defining the broader bearish structure. A reaction here would provide an opportunity to trade back with the larger trend. Buy-side liquidity has been taken — the recent recovery pushed into the 157.5–158.0 area, where previous highs created liquidity. The reaction from this region is important because a failure to continue higher after taking those highs could signal that buyers are becoming exhausted. Supply + trendline confluence — the 157.39–157.72 entry zone overlaps with the descending trendline and the recent resistance area. This gives the short setup a clearly defined structural location rather than selling in the middle of the recovery. Lower-high formation is the trigger to watch — after the recovery, price needs to show rejection from the resistance zone and begin forming a lower high. A bearish 4H close back below the entry zone would strengthen the reversal thesis. The downside target sits at a major reaction area — 154.21 is positioned near the lower support zone that previously attracted buyers during the recovery. If the resistance rejection develops into a sustained sell-off, this becomes the natural area to monitor for profit-taking. Risk is clearly defined above the structure — a daily close above 158.060 would invalidate the bearish setup. That level sits beyond the resistance cluster and gives the trade a clearly defined structural invalidation. Macro volatility matters — US Flash PMI and Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI are both scheduled around September 23, followed by US Durable Goods Orders later in the week. These releases could increase USDJPY volatility and potentially accelerate either the rejection or the breakout. Trade Setup: Entry: 157.390–157.720 (Entry from current price is acceptable with proper position sizing and strict risk management.) Target: 154.210 Stop Loss: Daily close above 158.060 Risk-to-Reward: >1:4.5 Invalidation: A daily close above 158.060 would invalidate the bearish reversal thesis and indicate that buyers have successfully broken through the resistance cluster rather than being rejected from it. Question: Would you short the first rejection from 157.39–157.72, or wait for a confirmed bearish 4H close below the zone before targeting 154.21? 👇