NEIL MACFARQUHAR2026年6月22日德黑兰街头一幅表现伊朗前两任最高领袖的宣传画，摄于本月。第二任最高领袖哈梅内伊在今年美以对伊朗军事行动初期被击毙。 Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York TimesIn igniting a war against Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump billed the U.S. campaign as an unprecedented step toward transforming the Middle East and terminating the threat from what he called a “wicked, radical dictatorship.”2月28日点燃对伊战火时，特朗普总统将美国的这场军事行动描述为一项史无前例的举措，旨在重塑中东，并彻底消除他所称的“邪恶激进独裁政权”所带来的威胁。Roughly 100 days later, as the United States and Iran have reached a somewhat vague memorandum of understanding to end the war, skeptics are expressing bafflement over what exactly has transformed.约100天后，随着美伊达成一份措辞较为模糊的谅解备忘录，宣告战争结束，质疑者感到困惑——中东究竟发生了什么实质性改变。Neither the war nor the agreement ended what U.S. and Israeli officials regard as the main threats emanating from Iran. The country’s nuclear program, while heavily damaged, was not eliminated — its fate punted to future negotiation.无论是这场战争本身，还是这份协议，都未能终结美以官员所认为的来自伊朗的主要威胁。伊朗的核计划虽遭重创，但并未被彻底摧毁，其最终命运被推迟到未来谈判中解决。The same goes for its ballistic missiles, which the deal does not address. Iran’s authoritarian regime endured, albeit with new leaders. Its proxies remain a threat to the region. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, persisted in attacking each other.伊朗的弹道导弹问题也是如此，这份协议对此只字未提。伊朗的威权政权虽然更换了领导层，却依然存在。其代理人武装仍是地区威胁。以色列与伊朗支持的武装组织黎巴嫩真主党也仍在相互攻击。By Saturday, even the most significant immediate result of the deal — Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr. Trump had identified as essential — seemed at risk. Iran’s military said it was closing the waterway again, because the United States had failed to stop the fighting in Lebanon. The U.S. military contested that, saying the strait remained open as the agreement stipulated.到周六，就连协议最重要、最直接的成果——伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡（特朗普曾将此视为协议核心）似乎也面临风险。伊朗军方表示，由于美国未能阻止黎巴嫩的战事，他们将再次关闭该水道。美国军方则对此提出异议，称海峡仍按协议规定保持开放。“This is not a document the United States agreed to because the war demonstrated a new U.S. military superiority,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at M.I.T. who specializes in Persian Gulf security issues. “I think it’s a document that has resulted from the fact that the United States bit off more than it could chew and doesn’t want to escalate.”“这不是一份因为战争展示了美国新的军事优势而签署的文件，”专门研究波斯湾安全问题的麻省理工学院教授凯特琳·塔尔马奇说。“我认为这份文件源于美国力不从心、不想升级冲突的现实。”That’s a worthy goal, she said. “But it really raises the question of what was achieved here, especially in comparison to the original Iran nuclear deal.”这是个值得追求的目标，她说，“但它也确实引发了一个问题：我们到底取得了什么成果，尤其是与最初的伊朗核协议相比。”For its part, the Islamic Republic is set to receive potentially substantial financial rewards. That is one substantive change, although not necessarily one in the United States’ favor.就伊朗方面而言，它有望获得可观的经济收益。这是一个实质性的变化，只不过未必符合美国利益。阿曼马斯喀特靠近霍尔木兹海峡的卡布斯港，摄于周五。Although the memorandum allows for free passage of ships for two months, Tehran has threatened to implement transit fees for services, a system that did not exist before the war.虽然备忘录允许船只在未来两个月内自由通行，但德黑兰已威胁要对经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收通行费，而在战争爆发前并不存在这种机制。The heart of the memorandum is that Iran will abandon hostility toward the United States and its regional allies, a pillar of the revolution, in exchange for sweeping, if sometimes gradual, economic benefits. They include the lifting of the American naval blockade, a $300 billion reconstruction fund to be created by the Gulf Arab states, the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets and an end to all American sanctions.备忘录的核心内容是：伊朗将放弃对美国及其地区盟友的敌对立场——这是伊斯兰革命的支柱之一——以换取广泛的、可能逐步兑现的经济利益。这些利益包括解除美国的海上封锁、由海湾阿拉伯国家设立3000亿美元重建基金、解冻数十亿美元冻结资产，以及终止所有美国制裁。The deal’s ambition, as Vice President JD Vance portrayed it to reporters on Thursday, went so far as the transformation of Iran’s hostile relations with the United States and much of the region since its 1979 revolution.按照副总统万斯周四向记者的描述，这项协议的雄心之大，甚至要彻底改变伊朗自1979年革命以来与美国及该地区大部分国家的敌对关系。“People say the Iranians will never change their behavior. Well, maybe that’s true and if so, they don’t get any of the benefits of the bargain,” said Mr. Vance. “But isn’t it worth trying?”“人们说伊朗人永远不会改变行为。也许这是真的，如果真是这样，他们什么好处也得不到，”万斯说。“但难道不值得试一试吗？”Experts on the region are skeptical. Middle Eastern wars tend to breed more radicalization, not less, said Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “The reality is that the region in the aftermath of this conflict will be much more insecure,” he said.研究中东问题的专家对此持怀疑态度。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所所长卡里姆·哈加格表示，中东战争往往会催生更多激进主义，而非相反。“现实情况是，这场冲突结束之后，中东地区只会变得更加不安全，”他说。Here is a look at how the memorandum left various countries:以下是这份备忘录对各方的影响：The United States美国伊朗领导层与美国副总统万斯原定周五在瑞士举行的会晤取消后的现场。 Hilary Swift for The New York TimesMr. Vance said the agreement maintained U.S. leverage over Iran and that it could turn financial rewards on and off like a spigot. Many experts were doubtful.万斯表示，该协议维持了美国对伊朗的施压能力，可以像开关水龙头一样随时给予或切断经济利益。许多专家对此表示怀疑。It’s true that Mr. Trump broke the American taboo against invading Iran, but in doing so analysts said that he squandered the most powerful tool that Washington had maintained since the Islamic Revolution: the threat of force. The United States used it, and didn’t achieve its goals — a lesson Iran is sure to internalize, analysts said.诚然，特朗普打破了美国不愿直接攻击伊朗的禁忌，但分析人士表示，这样做也浪费了华盛顿自伊斯兰革命以来最强大的工具：武力威慑。美国动用了这一工具，却未能实现目标——分析人士称，这一教训伊朗势必铭记于心。In the initial, 12-day war last June, for example, the U.S. military managed to cast a shadow over the long-term viability of Iran’s nuclear program by dispatching long-range bombers to bury nuclear facilities under a mountain of rubble, said Ms. Talmadge of M.I.T.麻省理工学院的塔尔马奇表示，例如在去年6月历时12天的初次战争中，美军通过派遣远程轰炸机将伊朗核设施深埋于瓦砾之下，从而对伊朗核计划的长期可行性造成了严重打击。The more recent war had the opposite effect, she added, since Mr. Trump backed off further escalation. “I think the U.S. in some ways undermined the leverage that it had,” Ms. Talmadge said.她补充道，最近的这场战争产生了相反的效果，因为特朗普最终放弃了进一步升级。“我认为美国在某些方面削弱了自身的筹码，”塔尔马奇说。At the same time, Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases in the region caused extensive damage, undermining another facet of American leverage, she said, by puncturing the sense that they were inviolable.与此同时，伊朗对美国在该地区军事基地的袭击造成了广泛破坏，打破了美军基地不可侵犯的印象，从而削弱了美国施压能力的又一环。特朗普总统在白宫，摄于4月。And the memorandum has a further stipulation: that unspecified American forces should withdraw from the “proximity” of Iran within 30 days.此外，这份备忘录还包含一项进一步的规定：要求未明确说明的美国部队在30天内撤离伊朗“周边地区”。“When did we ever negotiate with the Iranians about our force deployments going forward?” asked Robert S. Ford, a former American ambassador in the region.“我们什么时候开始就美国未来的兵力部署问题与伊朗人讨价还价了？”曾在中东地区担任美国大使的罗伯特·福特质问道。Iran伊朗The war wrought widespread devastation, with a reported death toll of 1,700 civilians. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed along with dozens of senior military commanders, and its air defenses proved porous. Reconstructing military and industrial infrastructure will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Inflation is skyrocketing, and high unemployment could fuel public unrest.战争给伊朗造成广泛破坏，据报道有1700名平民死亡。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊与数十名高级军事指挥官被杀，其防空体系暴露出种种漏洞。重建军事和工业基础设施将耗资数千亿美元。通货膨胀正在飙升，高失业率也可能引发社会动荡。But the government’s tenacity served to “reinvigorate Iran’s perception of its own security,” said Afshon Ostovar, author of “Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East.”但《野心之战：美国、伊朗与中东之争》(Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East)一书作者阿夫申·奥斯托瓦尔认为，伊朗政府展现出的韧性反而“重振了伊朗对自身安全能力的信心”。The idea that it will trade its hostility toward the United States and its allies for improved prosperity is a gamble, since it had almost always chosen confrontation previously, analysts said.分析人士指出，伊朗是否真的会为了经济繁荣而放弃对美国及其盟友的敌对政策，本身就是一场赌博，因为过去它几乎总是选择对抗。Israel以色列特拉维夫街头的内塔尼亚胡海报，上面写着“人民与内塔尼亚胡同在”，摄于4月。Israel entered the war convinced that it would defang Iran for at least a generation.以色列投入这场战争时坚信，自己至少能让伊朗在未来一代人的时间里失去威胁能力。Instead it found itself sidelined by its ally, the United States, in an agreement that ignored its goals, and worse, limited its freedom to attack in Lebanon. Mr. Trump has also repeatedly disparaged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, revealing rare disunity in American-Israeli relations at a fraught moment, with Israeli elections approaching.结果，以色列却发现自己被美国这个盟友边缘化，协议无视了它的目标，更糟糕的是限制了它在黎巴嫩发动攻击的自由。特朗普还多次贬低以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，在以色列大选临近的敏感时刻，这暴露出美以关系中的罕见裂痕。From an Israeli standpoint, the memorandum is a catastrophe. “It is a collapse of all the strategy that we had regarding Iran,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specializes in Iran.从以色列的角度来看，这份备忘录堪称灾难。“这是我们对伊战略的全面崩塌，”专门研究伊朗问题的以色列退休情报官员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。Lebanon黎巴嫩以色列发动空袭后，在贝鲁特南郊代希耶地区，救援人员在一处居民楼前。Lebanon is considered by analysts to be the soft underbelly of the memorandum.分析人士认为，黎巴嫩是这份备忘录最脆弱的环节。Hezbollah had alienated many of its mostly Shiite Muslim supporters by dragging the country into two devastating wars — one in support of Hamas in Gaza and the other when Israel attacked Iran. The violence has left thousands of people dead, including almost 4,000 civilians this year, according to the health ministry.真主党将国家拖入两场毁灭性战争——一场是支持加沙的哈马斯，另一场是以色列攻击伊朗时——从而疏远了许多主要是什叶派穆斯林的支持者。冲突已造成数千人死亡，据黎巴嫩卫生部统计，仅今年就有近4000名平民丧生。Lack of financial support from Iran for reconstruction augmented public anger. But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is working assiduously to restore Hezbollah’s military capacity, analysts said, and some of the money promised to Tehran for reconstruction could flow to the militia. That gives Hezbollah incentive to respect the agreement.伊朗迟迟未能提供重建资金也进一步加剧了公众不满。不过分析人士表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在努力恢复真主党的军事能力，而承诺给予伊朗的部分重建资金未来也可能流向真主党。这给了真主党遵守协议的动力。Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance have acknowledged that some violence in Lebanon is likely to continue, but it is not clear how much it would take to trigger a strong American intervention.特朗普和万斯都承认，黎巴嫩未来仍可能持续发生一定程度的暴力冲突。但目前尚不清楚，冲突升级到什么程度，才会引发美国的强力干预。Shirin Hakim对本文有报道贡献。Neil MacFarquhar自1995年以来一直担任时报记者，撰写从战争到政治、艺术等一系列议题，报道范围既涵盖美国也包括国际议题。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。