DAX This is why it can crash to 20000 by the end of the year.DAX IndexXETR_DLY:DAXTradingShotDAX (DE40) has been unable to break above its January Resistance and technically it's formed a Double Top. Despite the recovery from March's sharp fall that is giving the idea of a new long-term Bullish Leg, it is actually possible that this Double Top rejection might initiate a new Bearish Leg (Cycle), DAX's 6th within its 15-year Channel Up. The 1M RSI and 1M MACD action suggests that DAX continues to follow the underlying technical script that always does at the start of Bear Cycles/ Legs. Since 2009 and the end of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the market has started a multi-year Channel Up. Within that time-frame, 5 major corrections/ Bear Cycles (including March 2020 COVID flash crash) have occurred. On the broader scale of the Channel Up, those corrections have been nothing more that long-term technical Bearish Legs for the pattern. The shared characteristics on all of them were that they all formed an 1M MACD Bearish Cross and they all hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Three even hit the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while just one (March 2020 was a near miss) hit the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the generational Support of the market. In February 2026, DAX got rejected from the most overbought 1M RSI level it's been within this 17-year Channel Up. The last three long-term Bear Cycles displayed similar 1M RSI sequences and all recovered a good percent of early losses following the initial drop but then extended the long-term downtrend with more aggressive declines. This is what DAX did in April - May, recovering the Bear Cycle's early March losses. June has been flat and is about to end, so if the market repeats this very consistent pattern, then we should resume the downtrend by July and post at least a -24.35% total decline, which was the 'smallest' Bear Cycle that DAX had (2018). If it runs throughout the rest of the year, it should make contact with the 1M MA50 around 20000. I have to note here that if the 1M RSI hits its long-term Support Zone first, then DAX turns into a long-term buy opportunity again, regardless of the price it is on at the time. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇