Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTMoz FarooqueThu, June 25, 2026 at 3:03 AM GMT+2 4 min readA new S&P Global report just flashed a 2008-era warning inside arguably the most important parts of the U.S. economy.For perspective, factory activity expanded in June, and the manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected by economists. However, underneath that better-than-expected reading, employers sent a very different signal.Factory job cuts are now running near levels not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis, excluding the Covid pandemic shock. The big concern is not only layoffs. It is what those layoffs say about demand, costs, inventories, and confidence at a time when inflation, oil prices, and Fed policy continue squeezing expectations.On top of that, strong manufacturing data support the soft-landing case, but deeper job cuts pose questions about how long that strength could potentially last. What S&P Global said about factory layoffs S&P Global's June report showed the manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, beating the Dow Jones estimate of 54.8 and signaling that factory activity is still expanding.On the surface, it supports the idea that the industrial backdrop is holding up better than expected.More Economy:JPMorgan sends another message on strait of Hormuz, oil pricesWarren Buffett has a message on energy prices for all AmericansGoldman Sachs sends strong message on next Fed rate cutHowever, the details tell a weaker story.S&P said factory job cuts are running at the highest level since 2009, excluding the Covid collapse. Layoffs are often a forward-looking signal. Companies cut workers when they are worried about demand, margins, or costs, not when they believe orders are set to accelerate sharply.The report also suggests that the manufacturing rebound may be less durable than the headline PMI implies. Chris Williamson of S&P Global said factory growth is being temporarily supported by inventory building as companies respond to supply fears. That is not the same as broad, organic demand growth.If firms are rebuilding stockpiles because they fear delays or rising costs, the activity could fade once inventories normalize.S&P Global data show factory layoffs nearing 2008-era financial crisis levels. Kevin Lamarque-Pool/Getty ImagesThe key numbers behind the manufacturing warning The S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 in June, above the Dow Jones estimate of 54.8, indicating factories are still expanding, despite deeper labor cuts.Factory job cuts were the worst since 2009, excluding Covid, making the layoff signal look closer to a crisis-era warning.Manufacturers have cut jobs in three of the past four months, suggesting demand and cost pressures are becoming more persistent.Manufacturing payrolls are still up 23,000 in 2026, which complicates the Fed's view because the broader labor market has not cracked.The services PMI came in at 51.3, just above the expansion threshold, reinforcing the idea of slower but still positive growth.S&P said output points to roughly 1% annualized Q2 growth, a warning that momentum is fading beneath the headline data.Source: CNBCTerms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info