3 min readJun 23, 2026 06:00 AM IST First published on: Jun 23, 2026 at 06:00 AM ISTThe southwest monsoon is in serious deficit territory, with cumulative all-India rainfall this season (June-September) till June 22 being 42.8 per cent below the normal average for this period. Significantly, this is even before El Niño’s impact is to really kick in. The deficit for now is being attributed mainly to weak monsoon winds in general. The monsoon arrived three days late over Kerala on June 4. After some initial progress, the onset pulse weakened, with stronger northwesterly dry winds suppressing the incoming monsoon currents and no active eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation system carrying clouds and moisture. The monsoon, in fact, made no progress between June 15 and June 21, before showing signs of revival on Monday.Rainfall being deficient in June isn’t a good augury, as most global climate agencies are forecasting the current El Niño to intensify into a “strong” event towards August-September and “very strong” over October-January. In other words, one must expect no turnaround from a bad start and brace for the worst as El Niño gathers momentum. The last two strong-to-very strong El Niño events in 2023-24 and 2015-16 produced drought years. 2026-27 could turn out no different. The only consolation is that it comes after two consecutive good agriculture years: 2024-25 and 2025-26 saw farmers harvest bumper crops both in India and globally, with record outputs of wheat, rice, maize, sugar and even soyabean, rapeseed and palm oil. Not surprisingly, international food prices haven’t followed the course of crude petroleum, natural gas, coal, fertilisers and metals. Their prices have all surged following the US-Israel war on Iran, whereas the abundant stocks from all-time-high production have prevented food inflation spikes — at least so far.AdvertisementThat might change. The worst of the West Asia conflict is over. But El Niño’s effects will be felt not only during the ongoing kharif season, where sowing acreages are trailing for want of rain. El Niño is known to also raise temperatures. If this event peaks through October-January, it is the rabi (winter-spring) crops that will bear the brunt. That could, in turn, be a harbinger of future food inflation. The situation calls for deft planning and supply-side management. The government must keep the import window open, which is preferable to knee-jerk export bans/restrictions on farm produce as resorted to in the past. Simultaneously, there is a need to protect farmers against prevented/failed sowing or yield loss through expedited crop surveys and insurance payments. Last but not least, make VB-G RAM G a model rural employment programme in its launch year, from July 1.