Gold: Beware Rebound Traps & Wave 5 Risks – Shorting PreferredGoldOANDA:XAUUSDTradeCore_EvanYesterday was full of twists: Iran’s delegation first suspended negotiations to protest Trump’s threatening remarks, fueling market concerns that a breakdown could push oil prices higher and intensify inflation and rate-hike worries — gold dropped. However, the situation quickly reversed. Iran then claimed that talks had made positive progress, with reports of a draft agreement containing five key points. The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen, oil fell, and gold rebounded — ending a three-day losing streak. Such dramatic reversals have become increasingly common in recent years, making the market more jittery and trading more challenging. On the technical side, gold has broken below the 200-day moving average, forming a clear bearish alignment. If the 4100 level gives way, the 4000 handle will come into focus. Conversely, if 4100 holds, a medium-term bottom could potentially form. This week’s core PCE data is the most important variable. It serves as the Fed’s latest inflation gauge under its hawkish framework, and markets will react sensitively. A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and could push gold back toward the 4000 level. For intraday trading, first watch resistance near 4200 and 4220, followed by 4250. If price fails to break above resistance, shorting remains the preferred approach. On the support side, watch the 4183–4169 zone. A break below could trigger the start of a fifth-wave decline. Unless bullish news intervenes, a break below 4100 remains the more likely outcome.