Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTAdam Levy, The Motley FoolFri, June 26, 2026 at 4:39 AM GMT+2 4 min readSpace Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is experiencing a bumpy ride in its post-IPO takeoff. After a three-day winning streak from its public market debut, SpaceX's stock has fallen 30% from its intraday high. As of this writing on June 24, it trades below its closing price from the first day of trading.Investors who missed out on the stock's early trading days are now being given another chance. But readers should consider why the stock has fallen so sharply and whether it could keep dropping from here.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.SpaceX is a unique company, and that makes it extremely difficult to value. Its businesses are incredibly speculative, based on technology that's, for the most part, still in the developmental stage. Starlink, its satellite internet service, is the exception as it's already generating meaningful revenue. Otherwise, the company's growth thesis depends on far more speculative ventures.While SpaceX is home to xAI, which develops the Grok large language model, the business has seen a sharp shift in strategy. As it struggles to gain traction with its artificial intelligence service, xAI is now focused on signing contracts to sell excess compute infrastructure. It's made large deals with Anthropic and Alphabet so far. But that business model puts additional pressure on SpaceX's ability to deploy AI servers at low cost.Management sees orbital data centers as a path toward cost advantage for AI compute. But that advantage relies on successfully launching and scaling Starship, its super-heavy, fully reusable rocket.To that end, the company just announced a $25 billion bond offering, despite having raised $86 billion in its IPO. Management said it has $100 billion on its balance sheet already. Most countries have smaller cash reserves.That could be a sign that Starship requires significantly more development before it's ready for commercial use. Management said in its IPO registration filing that it expects Starship to start payload delivery to orbit in the second half of this year.Overall, the path to profitable revenue growth remains highly uncertain, which means SpaceX investors are likely to experience significant volatility from here. Those who expect successful Starship launches in the near term may be able to stomach that volatility. But a couple of factors could continue to weigh on the stock over the next year or so.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info