WTI - Will Oil Continue to Fall?!WTI CRUDE OILTVC:USOILAli_PSNDWTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within its medium-term descending channel. If oil corrects upward towards the initial demand range, it can be tried to sell it again short-term with an appropriate risk reward. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since the start of the recent tensions and conflicts, largely attributed to the implementation of the agreement between the US and Iran and the resumption of the passage of more tankers and commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, prediction markets are more confident that maritime traffic in the strategic waterway will return to normal in the near future. On the Kalshi platform, traders have estimated a 98% probability of full return to normal ship traffic before August 1, indicating a decrease in concerns about oil supply disruptions and an improvement in the psychological atmosphere prevailing in global energy markets. JPMorgan has also reduced its forecast for oil prices in the second half of 2026. The bank cited a smaller-than-expected decline in oil inventories as well as weak global demand as the reason for the revision in its forecasts. In addition, JPMorgan has warned that if the market continues to be oversupplied, producers may have to cut production again in early 2027 to balance supply and demand. In contrast, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, a move that challenged the agreement signed between the United States and Iran last week to stop the fighting and reopen this vital global trade route. The event also temporarily increased volatility in the oil market and caused a short-term price reaction.