$DXY (the WEEKLY chart); THE STRONGEST WEEKLY TF SINCE 2021-22U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYColdBloodedCharterThe U.S. Dollar Index is flashing a bearish warning for Q3 DXY - Weekly Chart The weekly timeframe is looking better than it has in the last five years, which suggests a potential shift toward a broader risk-off regime. I wrote after last week's Fed meeting that the dollar was attempting a breakout from an ascending triangle. So far, it looks like a strong attempt and likely a successful one. If the index manages to close the week with a solid green candle, we could be looking at several weeks of sustained dollar strength ahead. A bullish market structure shift on the weekly timeframe is rarely a fakeout. Funds are currently adjusting portfolios at the end of Q2 and the first half of the year, taking profits from assets that have seen massive rallies and rotating capital into more attractive "parking spots" benefiting from stable interest rates. The biggest losers in that environment are usually: Bitcoin Emerging markets Overheated momentum trades Precious metals And other risk assets Smart money tends to hedge and reposition portfolios during periods like these. Cheaper oil is a hopeful sign, but lower energy prices do not immediately translate into lower inflation. There is usually a lag of several months before that effect shows up in the data. So my base case is a difficult Q3. Anyone who chased pumps, ignored risk management, and refused to take profits may find summer painful. Those who already took profits will likely spend Q3 doing what every good investor loves most: shopping while everything is on sale — like walking into a supermarket right before a renovation and seeing clearance prices everywhere. That's how the market looks to me right now. There are still 4 days left before the weekly candle closes, and that close will provide much stronger confirmation. For now, consider these the latest warning signs. 💙👽