Crypto Market | BTC Weekly Analysis & Trading Plan （6.29-7.05）Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTGDJ_JinnNew week! Time for another weekly BTC breakdown. 1. Macro Events to Watch this week • US-Iran Negotiations：The current US-Iran situation remains fragile. While Trump has announced a framework for a potential agreement, Iran has rejected several key terms, leaving negotiations effectively stalled. For now, both sides remain in a "fight while negotiating" phase. The conflict has stayed at a relatively low intensity, with no meaningful progress on nuclear inspections or sanctions relief. • US Economic Data：This Thursday (July 2), markets will focus on the US Unemployment Rate and NFP. A stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening, adding pressure to risk assets, including Bitcoin. Note: Due to the July 3 Independence Day holiday, both releases will be published one day earlier than usual. • ETF Flows：Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $1.79B in net outflows this week. An interesting trend has emerged: retail capital appears to be rotating from Gold and Bitcoin into Semiconductor ETFs. Since April, Gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $12B in combined net outflows, while Semiconductor ETFs have attracted nearly $20B in inflows. This rotation accelerated sharply in mid-May, with both inflows and outflows roughly tripling. 2. BTC Market Analysis This week, I'd like to focus on Bitcoin from a liquidity perspective. Following the Core PCE release, BTC briefly dipped below 59k, then printed three consecutive H4 candles with long lower wicks, suggesting buyers attempted to defend the level. However, price continues to hover around the H4 FVG and VAL, without showing a convincing bullish reaction. A genuine liquidity sweep is usually accompanied by a spike in volume and a swift reclaim of the previous low—similar to the first break below 60k earlier this month. So far, this price action is not encouraging for bulls. In addition, the Liquidation Heatmap shows a large cluster of long stop-losses around 58k and below. There's a good chance BTC sweeps Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) before deciding its next directional move. Key Levels Resistance: 62.4k–63.2k (Key Fib confluence + H4 bearish OB + nPOC) Support: 58.2k–57.5k Trading Plan BTC remains near the lower boundary of its current range, while significant liquidity has built up around both 63k and 58k. Rather than anticipating the move, I'd rather let price sweep liquidity first and then react. BTC Short (Liquidity sweep above 63k + Bearish SFP) Entry: 62.8k SL: 63.5k (above the sweep high) TP1: 58k TP2: 56.8k、open BTC Long (Liquidity Sweep + Reclaim 59K) Entry: 58.2k SL: 56.8k TP1: 60.1k TP2: 62.3k Final Thoughts With markets still pricing in a more hawkish Fed, continued capital rotation into equities, and concerns over Strategy's leverage, Bitcoin could remain under pressure in the near term. As mentioned last week, I don't believe the downtrend is over. The battle around the 60k level could continue for some time and may even create the illusion of strength before the next major move. That said, I believe the best opportunities often emerge when uncertainty reaches its peak. When the market has fully priced in the bad news, that's when I'll be looking to get more aggressive on the long side. Trade safe.